U.S.-China Engagement and International Climate Diplomacy

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing about the role of United States-China climate engagement in shaping the progress and outcomes of international climate governance. From critical mineral supply chains to clean energy and transportation technology, dynamics between the two countries are complex and sometimes fraught. This briefing explored how the countries’ relations across broader climate and environmental issues have influenced and will continue to influence the annual U.N. climate change negotiations.

In 2023, the United States and China produced the Sunnylands Statement ahead of the U.N. climate change negotiations (COP28), following a tradition of publishing similar joint positions in prior years. The statement covered topics related to the energy transition, forest conservation, and non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions, including methane. It also kicked off a working group focused on “climate action in the 2020s,” which started meeting in the first half of 2024.  

During the briefing, panelists explained how these bilateral interactions play into the international negotiations on climate change, outlined what to expect during COP29 and its lead up, and discussed the effectiveness of diplomatic efforts in curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

The three briefings in this series are:

What’s on the Table for the Negotiations

Methane Mitigation on the Global Stage

The U.S.-China Relationship and International Climate Diplomacy

 

Highlights

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The U.S.-China relationship is complex because the two countries are connected economically and often compete on issues such as critical mineral supply chains and clean energy technology. However, to meet shared greenhouse gas emission targets, both countries will need to cooperate. It is possible that China could cut its carbon dioxide emissions by at least 30% below 2023 levels by 2035 and its non-carbon dioxide emissions by 35%. Recent engagements, including the 2021 U.S.-China Glasgow Climate Declaration and the 2023 Sunnylands Statement, have focused on methane emission reductions, reducing hydrofluorocarbon emissions, and agriculture and food production. The United States and China have agreed that their respective 2035 climate targets, articulated in their nationally determined contributions, will be economy-wide, include all greenhouse gases, and align with the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target as agreed by all countries at COP28.

 

U.S. Representative Kathy Castor (D-Fla.)

• The U.S.-China relationship is complex because the two countries are connected economically and often compete on issues such as critical mineral supply chains and clean energy technology. However, to meet shared greenhouse gas emission targets, both countries will need to cooperate.
• Climate disasters such as Hurricanes Helene and Milton have claimed many lives and caused tens of billions of dollars in damages. These natural disasters have negatively impacted working families, small businesses, and underrepresented communities.
• The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (P.L. 117-169) is the largest investment in clean energy and climate resilience in U.S. history, paying dividends through new manufacturing plants and clean energy projects.
• It is a shared interest of the United States and China to pursue appropriate opportunities for coordinated investments in sustainable development and climate change resilience through platforms such as the joint U.S.-China Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action.

 

Wanyuan Song, Section Editor, China, Carbon Brief

• China is the world’s biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, representing 31% of the world’s total emissions, as well as the largest deployer and manufacturer of low-carbon technology. The world cannot stay below the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target without rapid action from China.
• A Carbon Brief study demonstrates that China’s carbon emissions may have peaked in 2023. The trend has shown that China’s carbon emissions are on a downward trajectory. By the end of the year 2024, we may see an overall reduction in emissions.
• The decrease in carbon emissions in China is due to three factors: the expansion of wind and solar power capacity, which has reached over 1,200 gigawatts; the slowing of the real estate industry, which has resulted in a decrease in demand for steel and cement; and the rapid growth of electrical vehicles (EVs).
• China’s sales of new EVs are continuing to grow, and surpassed sales of new combustion engine vehicles in summer 2024. However, China’s EV sector relies heavily on state subsidies, many of which have been paused or canceled.
• China’s “policy pendulum” may swing back to climate change after years of focusing on economic growth. This is supported by President Xi Jinping’s call for green growth at the beginning of 2024, the reiteration of climate goals at the important Chinese political meeting “Two Sessions,” the mention of carbon emissions for the first time during the Communist Party’s third plenum meeting, and new terminology for renewable energy and green technology as a driving force of China’s economy.
  • China expanded its emissions trading system to cover 60% of total emissions of carbon dioxide, compared to 40% previously, and relaunched the China Certified Emission Reduction Program.
  • China has paused steel permits for construction.
  • China has new guidelines for the low-carbon coal plan and has seen a drop in coal plant approvals, although it still leads the world in coal construction.
• According to National Energy Transition data, China’s investment in the energy transition reached $676 billion in 2023. China has also invested $51 billion in Africa to focus on selling advanced and green technologies.
• Next steps depend on China’s negotiations at the 2024 UN climate summit (COP29) and its next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement. It is possible that China could cut its carbon dioxide emissions by at least 30% below 2023 levels by 2035 and its non-carbon dioxide emissions by 35%.

 

Jennifer Turner, Director, China Environment Forum, Wilson Center

• In 2009, the United States and China formed the Obama-Hu Clean Energy Agreements, which led to multi-agency collaboration. Throughout the Obama Administration, U.S.-China competition drove climate change progress, particularly in electric vehicles and solar power. The 2014 U.S.-China Joint Announcement on Climate Change was a precursor to the Paris Agreement.
• In 2017, the Trump Administration began the process of pulling out of the Paris Agreement, while President Xi announced that China would become a leader in international climate cooperation. He also passed the Foreign NGO law, making it more difficult for international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) to continue work in China.
• In 2023, China led in installed renewable energy capacity, with 50% of the world’s investment in offshore wind. The United States increased EV and clean energy investment through the IRA and the Infrastructure Investment Jobs Act (P.L. 117-58).
• China’s monopoly on critical minerals is a concern for the United States. The U.S. position on decoupling from China on clean technology requires more nuance because while it may be positive from a national security perspective, it risks resulting in less innovation, less climate action, and higher prices.
• The 2021 U.S.-China Glasgow Climate Declaration and the 2023 Sunnylands Statement notably discuss topics of less controversy, including methane emission reductions, reducing hydrofluorocarbon emissions, and agriculture and food production.
• One-third of global greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture and food production, and both the United States and China are food superpowers. Both countries also joined the COP28 United Arab Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action.

 

Kate Logan, Director, China Climate Hub & Climate Diplomacy, Asia Society Policy Institute; Fellow, Center for China Analysis

• China and the United States had a tense relationship in the early years of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) due to divergent views on historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions and developed versus developing country status. There was a shift to more U.S.-China cooperation in negotiations leading up to the Paris Agreement in 2015. This was followed by a lack of engagement during the Trump Administration. The cooperative relationship was rekindled under the Biden-Harris Administration.
• Key moments for the United States and China leading up to COP29 include the Sunnylands Statement on Enhancing Cooperation to Address the Climate Crisis, COP28, and the first two meetings of the U.S.-China Working Group on Enhancing Climate Action in the 2020s.
• Priority issues for the U.S.-China climate talks include the NDCs, the new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG), methane and other non-carbon dioxide gases, and other working issues such as the energy transition, circular economy, subnational cooperation, supply chain, and deforestation.
• The NDCs are countries’ core climate targets under the Paris Agreement. They are updated every five years and the next round of updated NDCs, with targets extending to 2035, are due by February 2025. Both the United States and China have been working on preparing their NDCs and indicated they will submit them on time. According to the UN Emissions Gap Report, failure to increase ambition in these new NDCs and start delivering results immediately would lead to a temperature increase of 2.6°C-3.1°C this century.
• The United States and China agreed in both the Sunnylands Statement and at COP28 that their respective 2035 NDCs would be economy-wide, include all greenhouse gases, and align with the 1.5°C (2.7°F) target as agreed by all countries at COP28.
• On climate finance, the first global climate finance target was agreed at COP15 in 2009 to jointly mobilize $100 billion per year by 2020 to address the needs of developing countries. In the Paris Agreement, countries agreed they would update this goal by 2025 (the new goal is referred to as the NCQG). Recent studies have found that China’s average contribution to international climate finance has been $4.5 billion per year from 2013 to 2022. This is in line with developed countries.
• The key challenges causing divergent U.S. and Chinese positions on the NCQG are acknowledging China's existing contribution, identifying new contributors to the goal, provisions for accountability with respect to the goal, and transparency for reporting progress.

 

Q&A

 

Q: Can you give an overview of economic conditions in China?

Logan

• China’s economy is built around manufacturing, therefore as this sector grows, greenhouse gas emissions follow. The key challenge is to decouple emissions from economic growth, which has been done by adding immense amounts of renewable energy to the grid.
• Because of the Chinese political system, they are not backtracking on their goals, but rather putting targets forward and figuring out how to meet them, unlike the U.S. system which has more room to go in different directions depending on the political situation.

Turner

• China’s government and economy have the potential to engage in climate action specifically related to food and agriculture. Similar to the United States, China is concerned about crop yields going down. In the long run, climate action makes food more secure.

Song

• China’s economy is currently struggling, which may help in reducing emissions from the real estate and manufacturing sectors. However, the Chinese government has released stimulus packages that are not environmentally sustainable because they encourage people to buy more manufactured goods.

 

Q: How do U.S.-China tensions in other areas impact climate issues and the countries’ ability to work together constructively?

Song

• The overall U.S.-China relationship is not in a good state, which causes cooperation in the climate world, particularly between scientists and scholars, to suffer.
• Because of China’s political system, when the central government sends a signal to reduce interactions with another country, local governments, state-owned companies, and the private sector will follow.

Turner

• The U.S.-China Science and Technology Agreement, the foundation of all basic scientific cooperation between the two countries, was recently not extended. As the climate negotiations move forward, the Environmental Protection Agency and Department of Energy will not be able to collaborate with their counterparts until the agreement is reinstated.
• U.S.-China tensions will result in missed opportunities to collaborate in areas that are not sensitive.

Logan

• Other tensions do impact the U.S.-China relationship. The United States has tried to silo areas of cooperation from other areas, which is not how China approaches it. For example, when then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) went to Taiwan in 2022, China decided to suspend climate talks, which were later reinstated.
• Cooperation and competition are not mutually exclusive. In the current state of the relationship, the trade tensions with China are not bleeding into the climate talks in a very explicit way. There is room for cooperation, as long as the countries cultivate the space for it.

 

Q: Where should there be nuance or context within the often binary—“good” versus “bad”—discussions about U.S.-China relations in the media and on Capitol Hill?

Turner

• The binary discussion causes missed opportunities to cooperate where there is no competition, such as on hydrogen or on food and agriculture. Early in the Obama Administration, China learned from U.S. policies that promote transparency and participation.

Logan

• The U.S.-China discussion often lacks the acknowledgement that the United States can be learning from China. China is a land of contradictions. They have both the world’s largest build-out of coal-fired power plants and of renewable energy. There is a lot to learn from Chinese innovation.
• It is important to remember that engagement between the people of the United States and China has led to tangible outcomes and progress. There are many people in China who are working within a difficult context to make the government move faster on climate and they should not be discounted.

Song

• China’s political system is dominated by the Communist Party, but within the party there are different views. It is important to remember that there are Chinese politicians who have ideas that differ from what the propaganda machine promotes.
• If you have the chance to cooperate with China, it is worth doing so.

 

Compiled by Aaliya Cassoobhoy and edited for clarity and length. This is not a transcript.