What’s on the Table for the Negotiations

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) held a briefing about what Congress can expect during the upcoming United Nations climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan (COP29). From the opening World Climate Action Summit to the intense negotiations of the conference’s final days, thousands of events will take place over the course of the two-week U.N. session. Whether traveling to Baku or observing COP29 from D.C., this briefing can guide policymakers on how to engage effectively.

Panelists previewed key issues on the negotiating agenda, from setting the new global climate finance goal and determining metrics for climate adaptation to updating national climate goals. The briefing also unpacked the complex process of international climate negotiations, reviewed possible policy outcomes, and explored pathways for subsequent Congressional action.

The three briefings in this series were:

What’s on the Table for the Negotiations

Methane Mitigation on the Global Stage

The U.S.-China Relationship and International Climate Diplomacy

Highlights

KEY TAKEAWAYS

The 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference is composed of three meetings, which all take place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): The 29th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP29) to the convention, the 19th meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP19), and the 6th meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA6). These meetings are collectively referred to as COP29.
The new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) is a key issue negotiators need to tackle at COP29. The Paris Agreement states that the new climate finance goal should be established before 2025. The goal would set a new international financial target for supporting developing countries in their climate actions.
COP29 provides an opportunity for organizations and subnational governments to share announcements promoting transparency and accountability in alignment with global climate efforts.

Tracy Bach, Lecturer, Tuck School of Business at Dartmouth College & UNFCCC Research and Independent NGOs (RINGO) Steering Committee Member

The 2024 United Nations Climate Change Conference is composed of three meetings, which all take place under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): The 29th meeting of the Conference of Parties (COP29) to the convention, the 19th meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP19), and the 6th meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA6). These meetings are collectively referred to as COP29.
The first week is composed primarily of technical meetings and the second week consists largely of political meetings.
The Paris Agreement, currently being implemented by 194 countries and the European Union, has three main components designed to drive down greenhouse gas emissions:
- Nationally determined contributions (NDCs): National climate action plans in which each country outlines its strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions to meet Paris Agreement goals. The next round of NDCs are due in February 2025.
- Enhanced transparency framework (ETF): Reporting system through which countries provide data to show their progress on mitigation and adaptation. Reports under the ETF are due for most countries at the end of 2024.
- Global Stocktake (GST): Process for countries to collectively see where they are making progress towards Paris Agreement goals and what gaps remain. The first GST culminated last year at COP28 in Dubai.
There are three key issues for COP29: climate finance, updating NDCs, and climate adaptation.

Lynn Wagner, Senior Director, Tracking Progress, International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD)

The Kyoto Protocol, the first international effort to implement the UNFCCC, took a top-down approach in which all industrialized countries had the same binding target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by a certain date and developing countries did not have emission reduction commitments. By contrast, the Paris Agreement uses a bottom-up approach in which each country develops and reports its own strategy to reduce emissions through its NDC and biennial transparency reports (BTRs) under the ETF.
Countries are now putting together commitments under the third round of NDCs due on February 10, 2025.
The new collective quantified goal on climate finance (NCQG) is a key issue negotiators need to tackle at COP29. The Paris Agreement states that the new climate finance goal should be established before 2025. The goal would set a new international financial target for supporting developing countries in their climate actions. Key questions that need to be answered include: What will the goal be? Which countries or other entities will contribute funding? Which countries are eligible to receive funding?

Jennifer Huang, Director for International Strategies, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES)

The GST at COP28 assessed global progress towards the goals set by the Paris Agreement. It set out key signals for climate mitigation and adaptation, such as the inclusion of language on the tripling of global renewable energy capacity by 2030. Countries must consider the outcome of the GST in their new NDCs due in February 2025.
The GST launched new processes under the UNFCCC. The new NDC dialogue, also referred to as the annual GST dialogue, provides countries an opportunity to reflect on how the outcomes of the GST can inform countries’ next NDCs and to highlight resources available to integrate GST outcomes in NDCs.
In preparation for the second GST, which will kick off in 2026, countries also agreed to refine the process based on their experiences over the last few years. This includes discussions on both procedural and logistical elements of the GST.
The Mitigation Ambition and Implementation Work Programme could represent an opportunity to discuss mitigation signals from the GST, if countries decide on that approach at COP29.

Ryan Finnegan, Manager, Policy, Strategy, and Partnerships, World Wildlife Fund

The America Is All In initiative is a coalition of U.S. stakeholders across local governments, the private sector, and other areas of civil society that support the U.S. climate action commitments made under the Paris Agreement.
Strengthening bilateral and multilateral relationships with key counterparts around the world is crucial for public- and private-sector actors working in climate mitigation and adaptation.
COP29 provides an opportunity for organizations and subnational governments to share announcements promoting transparency and accountability in alignment with global climate efforts.
U.S. stakeholders at COP29 will include tribal nation leaders, a U.S. governor, state government employees, U.S. mayors and elected city leaders, academic representatives, and delegations from the private sector, faith-based groups, the healthcare sector, and community-based organizations.
The COP presidency sets a thematic schedule for the two weeks of COP. This year, the first week emphasizes finance, energy, science, and technology. The second week will highlight youth, health, education, food, and agriculture.

Andrew Rakestraw, Deputy U.S. Head of Delegation to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and Paris Agreement Negotiations, U.S. Department of State

The United States approaches COP29 with six main objectives: three are related to negotiations and three are related to non-negotiated outcomes that will not involve formal decisions.
The first negotiation objective is mitigation—specifically, ensuring that the GST decisions from COP28 are maintained.
The second negotiation objective is to finalize negotiations on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, which relates to carbon markets.
The third negotiation objective is to form the NCQG, the successor to the goal, set at COP15 in 2009, of mobilizing $100 billion to support climate action in developing countries. The mobilization goal is collective and non-binding and is set at a minimum of $100 billion annually. The central quantitative issues will be by how much the total increases and which countries will contribute. The central qualitative issue will be how financing will be managed, such as debt sustainability issues.
The first non-negotiation objective is to ensure that NDCs are being updated, focusing particularly on high-emitting G20 nations such as China, which currently contributes 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions.
The second non-negotiation objective is to prioritize the transparency regime, particularly related to the BTRs due at the end of the year.
The third non-negotiation issue is the action agenda, particularly discussions on methane and non-carbon dioxide emissions in addition to commitments to triple renewable energy production and double energy efficiency.

Q&A

Q: Is there an issue that you expect will receive more attention at COP29 than in previous years? Additionally, are there issues that we have not yet discussed today that you would like to mention?

Bach

Mitigation and finance will be addressed thoroughly.
The Loss and Damage Fund will be an important issue to watch.

Wagner

There will be many eyes on the United States and how it takes forward climate leadership.
Since Brazil is hosting COP30, pay attention to what they are signaling for next year.

Huang

A decision is expected on transformational adaptation.
The topics of just transition and equity are fairly new formal discussions to look out for.

Finnegan

U.S. leadership will have much attention on it.
The U.S..-China relationship will be important to watch.
The Convention on Biological Diversity COP took place from October 21-November 1. It will be interesting to see the linkage between biodiversity, nature, and climate at COP29.

Rakestraw

Any NDCs that countries decide to submit before or during COP29 will be influential and set the tone for the others that follow.
Discussions on gender-responsive climate action will be prominent in the negotiations and is a priority issue from the U.S. perspective.

Q: Given that countries are already exchanging internationally-transferred mitigation outcomes, why does it matter that Article 6 be finalized at COP29?

Rakestraw

Emissions trading is already operating in practice, but finalizing details would provide certainty to both those trading credits in the market and countries that the rules will remain consistent.
Finalizing Article 6 would also allow for the Article 6.4 mechanism to be implemented, creating a supervisory body with a meticulously developed methodology for crediting.

Q: COP29 will attempt to align NDCs and global climate efforts with the 1.5-degree Celsius global warming limit. What does this alignment mean in practice, and what can be done about it?

Bach

Aligning the next round of NDCs with the 1.5-degree Celsius warming goal is critical.
COP29 could drive the review of individual NDCs, with nonprofits like Climate Action Tracker publicizing the results.
It is important for there to be a way to demonstrate if NDCs are 1.5°C compliant or not.

Wagner

COP29 is focused on climate finance. If there is a strong outcome on finance, then countries with more limited fiscal resources would have more confidence in putting out more ambitious commitments to address their emissions.

Huang

The United Nations has been focused this year on getting countries the information and resources they need from across the UN system to put together their next NDCs. There will also be a new NDC synthesis report coming out, which will show where things stand.

Rakestraw

The IPCC report provided the scientific rationale for net emission reductions, but creating NDCs towards that effort is complicated.
The United States is focused on the 20 countries that represent approximately 80% of global emissions to form 1.5°C-aligned NDCs.

Finnegan

The way countries integrate domestic financing streams into their NDC planning is important, and helps countries set more ambitious targets.

Q: Do you have any suggestions for resources that Congressional staff can use to follow the developments at COP29?

Bach

RINGO held a webinar for those going to their first COP.
The World Resources Institute’s information on climate finance is useful, particularly on the private sector and mobilization.
Carbon Brief also provides extensive coverage of COP.

Rakestraw