Paris Agreement’s Entry into Force “Inevitable” as It Surpasses One of Two Ratification Thresholds

The Paris climate agreement is on the verge of entering into force following a flurry of ratifications and pledges for future action surrounding the 71st session of the United Nations General Assembly in New York City. Thirty-one countries deposited their instruments of ratification on September 21, bringing the total to 60, surpassing the 55-nation threshold for enactment. As of this writing, 61 countries have ratified the Paris agreement, representing 47.79 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The agreement's members must account for at least 55 percent of global emissions before it can become legally binding. At this stage, the agreement has significant diplomatic momentum and is expected to overcome the emissions threshold on Tuesday, October 4.

On September 30, the European Union's environment ministers voted to fast-track approval of the climate deal at the European level, even though all 28 member states have not yet individually ratified it (so far, Austria, France, Germany, Hungary, Malta, Portugal, and Slovakia—representing 4.6 percent of global GHG emissions—have ratified the agreement). With the ministers' blessing, the E.U. Parliament is expected to formally ratify the Paris deal on Tuesday, October 4. India has pledged to ratify the agreement on Sunday, October 2 to mark Gandhi's birthday. Accounting for 17 percent of the world's population and 4.1 percent of its emissions with a rapidly developing economy, India has long been viewed as a critical participant to the agreement's long-term success. Together, these ratifications will be enough to push the agreement into force, even if the E.U. countries that have not yet ratified the agreement are excluded (as a whole, the European Union releases about 12 percent of the world's greenhouse gas emissions).

Complex international accords can take years to enter into force, making the Paris Climate Agreement's rapid pace of ratification an unprecedented development. U.N. Secretary-General Ban-Ki moon expressed optimism for the Paris deal during the session: "What once seemed impossible is now inevitable. I am confident that, by the time I leave office [on 31 December 2016], the Paris Agreement will have entered into force. This will be a major achievement for multilateralism."

The swift ratification process for the Paris agreement is being driven by a mix of administrative, scientific, ethical, and political factors. According to Article 21 of the agreement, it enters into force 30 days after its two activation thresholds are met. This marks October 7 as the deadline if the agreement is to take effect before the 22nd Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), scheduled for November 7, 2016, in Morocco. Arriving in Marrakech with a ratified agreement in hand would certainly change the tone and potential productivity of the conference.

One wrinkle is that the agreement was not expected to enter into force until after 2020, meaning some of the components of the text are oriented toward a more distant date. In order to give the parties to the agreement adequate time to complete their respective "to-do" lists and allow more states to fully engage in the proceedings, the first meeting of the parties (post-entry into force) may be "suspended" in a procedural move to extend this window. However, the delegations would continue to negotiate and lay the groundwork for the final steps toward implementation during any procedural pauses.

There is an underlying urgency to take immediate action in response to the looming threat of climate change. With the Paris agreement representing the best hope for coordinated global cooperation toward climate mitigation, heads of state have continued to underscore the lack of time remaining for deliberation. The latest round of ratifications juxtaposed the signatures of some of the world's richest and highest-emitting nations with pledges from some of the globe's least developed and most vulnerable states. Climate-related impacts are already affecting small island nations and present a grave threat to their future survival. Eight more small island nations ratified the Paris agreement on September 21, pushing the total number of Alliance of Small Island States signatories to 27; nearly 70 percent of that bloc's overall membership. Meanwhile, larger nations continue to rally around the agreement. Nations that have verbally committed to ratification include Australia, Bulgaria, Cambodia, Canada, Costa Rica, Cote d’Ivoire, New Zealand, South Korea, and the United Kingdom (which has voted to leave the European Union).

Despite the rapid progress toward enacting the Paris agreement, the U.S. presidential election has been a source of worry for all the nations that hope to see the agreement flourish. Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has declared at different times that he views climate change as a "hoax" and would pull the United States out of the agreement if elected. While a Trump administration could certainly threaten to upend the international climate partnerships forged under President Obama, a clause in the agreement could prove a buffer to such intentions and has reportedly spurred some parties to act before the next American head of state takes office in January. Once the agreement enters into force, all ratifying countries will remain bound by its provisions for a period of four years. Locking the United States into the agreement for four years may provide enough assurance for developing nations that are fearful of being left at a disadvantage in the event of an (unlikely) U.S. withdrawal.

The troubling scenario of a U.S. withdrawal was addressed in an open letter signed by 375 members of the National Academy of Sciences, including 30 Nobel laureates, warning of the severe global consequences if the United States were to ever pull out of the agreement. Fortunately, the international consensus behind the Paris agreement has only grown stronger and the agreement's entry into force now appears imminent.

 

Author: Brian La Shier