Climate Change News - October 28, 2013

EPA Begins Public Listening Sessions on Carbon Emissions Regulations

On October 23, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) began a series of 11 listening sessions that it will hold in cities around the country to gather feedback on its planned regulation of carbon emissions for existing power plants. The EPA will be soliciting comments on its use of section 111(d) of the federal Clean Air Act to limit the emission of carbon dioxide from the over 1,000 power plants currently operating. Northeastern states which are already using a carbon trading program that targets power plant emissions (the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative) are expected to argue that they are already compliant with section 111(d). California may also request that the EPA recognize their cap-and-trade system as compliant with section 111(d). States that have not yet implemented their own emissions laws “will likely try to incorporate the lowest cost reduction measures . . . [to] ensure that the program’s requirement’s won’t compromise the availability of affordable and reliable electricity,” said Jennifer Macedonia, a senior adviser to the Bipartisan Policy Center. People who wish to make comments at a listening session will be awarded three minutes each.

For additional information see: EPA , Huffington Post

State Department Climate Official Calls for Flexible International Emissions Deal

On October 22, United States Special Envoy for Climate Change Todd Stern spoke in London about negotiations towards a 2015 U.N. climate treaty. The planned treaty, a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, is scheduled to be ratified by 2015 and would come into effect in 2020. Stern urged the U.N. to draft a flexible treaty that is more focused on a paradigm shift regarding climate change and less on enacting strict targets and timelines. In his remarks, Stern asserted that stringent rules would be seen as unfair to many countries and would serve to lower the ambition level of participating countries, commenting: “an agreement that is animated by the progressive development of norms and expectations rather than by the hard edge of law, compliance and penalty has a much better chance of working, being effective and building inclusive, real-world ambition.” Detractors of a flexible approach assert that a voluntary standard would detract from a potential treaty’s power to produce meaningful carbon reductions. European Commission spokesman Isaac Valero-Ladron responded, “If we are all ambitious, why shouldn’t we put our commitments in a legal document that binds us all?” Progress on the treaty has been slow so far this year; formal negotiations will resume in Warsaw beginning November 11.

For additional information see: The Hill , The Huffington Post , The State Department

Iowa Scientists Release Statement on Climate Change Impacts on Farming

On October 18, the 2013 Iowa Climate Statement was released at the Iowa Climate Science Educators’ Forum. Over 150 scientists across the state signed onto the call for climate change action. The statement argues that Iowa’s agricultural economy will be especially hard hit by future climate change. Iowa is the nation’s largest corn and soybean producer, so any impacts will have far-reaching consequences. Extreme weather events such as the state’s prolonged droughts in 2011 and 2012 and the excessive spring rains in 2013 have made the role of climate change in Iowa clear, according to Gene Takle, director of the Climate Science Program at Iowa State University. Takle noted that “the last couple of years have underscored the fact that we are very vulnerable to weather conditions and weather extremes in Iowa.” The scientists commented on the need for Iowa to address climate change, writing, “Iowa’s soils and agriculture remain our most important economic resources, but these resources are threatened by climate change. It is time for all Iowans to work together to limit future climate change and make Iowa more resilient to extreme weather. Doing so will allow us to pass on to future generations our proud tradition of helping to feed the world.”

For additional information see: Popular Science , Radio Iowa , Statement

United Nations Announces New Science Advisory Board

On October 18, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon announced a new Scientific Advisory Board which will ensure that cutting-edge scientific research is appropriately represented in public policy discussions in the U.N. The 26 newly appointed members come from diverse disciplines, and will provide input on environmental, developmental and socio-ethical issues, including climate change. “This is a further sign that scientific expertise is becoming more and more important in political decision-making,” said Jörg Hacker, a member of the Board and the president of the German Academy of Sciences. “I’d imagine that most of our work will be concerned with the big topics: climate, energy, health,” Hacker conjectured. The Advisory Board was initiated on the suggestion of a U.N. report released in January 2012, Resilient People, Resilient Planet: A Future Worth Choosing. Members of the Scientific Advisory Board serve for a two-year term, with the possibility of a one-term renewal. Board members include the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Rajendra Pachauri and director of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Susan Avery. The first board meeting is scheduled for early 2014.

For additional information see: Science Magazine , Nature , UNESCO

European Union to Revive Airline Carbon Emission Charge in Regional Airspace

On October 16, the European Commission proposed to bring foreign airlines back into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). The new proposal would charge airlines for the carbon emitted while flying within the airspace of the 28 European Union (EU) member states, plus Norway and Iceland. The revised plan is a retreat from past legislation, under which the full length of foreign flights in and out of EU would have been subjected to an emission charge. That plan was suspended under objections from the United States and developing countries, with the understanding that the United Nations’ International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) would move towards a broader resolution to tackle airlines’ emissions. The ICAO assembly agreed on October 4 that a global market-based mechanism would be implemented in 2020 (see October 14 issue); the amended EU plan is proposed to fill the gap in regulation from 2014 to 2020. “With this proposal, Europe is taking responsibility to reduce emissions within its airspace until the global [ICAO] measure begins,” commented EU Climate Commissioner Connie Hedegaard. Under the new proposal, intercontinental flights will need to purchase permits for 15 percent of the emissions taking place within EU airspace. Intra-European flights will continue to purchase permits for all of their emissions. Flights to and from all countries that generate less than one percent of global aviation emissions will be exempted, in line with the ICAO agreement.

For additional information see: Reuters , The Australian , Bloomberg

Study Finds Decline of Global Climate Change Investment

On October 22, the Climate Policy Institute (CPI), a San Francisco-based analysis firm, released a new study that found global investments on renewable energy and other climate mitigation measures plateaued to $359 billion in 2012, $5 billion less than the previous year. According to the report, slightly more than half of the investments ($182 billion) were spent in developing countries, and 76 percent ($275 billion) of all spending was domestic. The study also reveals the pattern of international investments, with private money inclined to flow between developed countries, while a majority of the money developed countries spent in developing countries came from the public sector. “Investment to combat and adapt to climate change is happening around the world, but it’s short of where it needed to be and efforts to grow it have not been successful enough,” commented CPI’s Executive Director Thomas Heller. According to International Energy Agency, an additional $5 trillion investment in clean energy is needed through 2020 to limit the temperature rise to within 2 degrees Celsius, the United Nations target. The report also underscores the critical role played by public sources and policies in leveraging private investment, saying the public sector’s $135 billion investment facilitated $224 billion in private spending.

For additional information see: Bloomberg , Reuters , Environmental Leader , Study

Carbon Emissions in United States Fell in 2012

On October 21, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a new report which revealed that U.S. carbon emissions in 2012 were 3.8 percent lower than in 2011. Overall, 2012 had the lowest level of energy-related carbon emissions since 1994. Unlike 2009, when carbon emissions dropped due to the economic recession, the 2012 reduction was paired with a 2.8 percent growth in GDP, making it the largest emissions drop in a year with positive GDP. The decline in carbon emissions was largely due to the continued shift to natural gas from coal to produce electricity. In addition, the residential sector reduced its electricity consumption, thanks to warmer weather in 2012 which reduced demand for space heating. The transportation sector accounted for 22 percent of the total energy decline. Despite the sharp decrease in 2012, there is evidence that shows U.S. carbon emissions will soon be back on the rise. According to preliminary data, “carbon dioxide emissions for energy have already risen 2.6 percent in the first half of 2013.” This is likely due to the price and supply variations between coal and natural gas.

For additional information see: EIA Report , Star Tribune , National Geographic , Washington Post

New Study Addresses Cost of Climate Change in East Asia

On October 17, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) released a report titled “Economics of Climate Change in East Asia,” warning of the risk of losing 5.3 percent of the region’s annual gross domestic product (GDP) by 2100 due to climate change. The report found that 12 million people in 23 East Asian cities and $864 billion in assets are at risk. Using climate models and data from China, Japan, Mongolia and South Korea, the report examined East Asia’s adaptation strategies, and how they can be combined with greenhouse gas reduction measures. The report identified infrastructure, coastal protection and agriculture as the three most vulnerable sectors to climate change impacts, and called for annual average climate-proofing investments of $22.9 billion, $4.2 billion and $9.5 billion, respectively. The aggregated annual cost accounts for less than 0.3 percent of the region’s annual projected GDP between 2010 and 2050. Ayumi Konishi, Director General of ADB’s East Asia Department noted that “the cost of inaction far outweighs the cost of climate change adaptation if countries act now.” Climate related natural disasters since 1970 have already cost the four nations $340 billion in economic loss.

For additional information see: Bloomberg , ADB , Report , Study

Study Finds Global Warming is Extending Dry Season in Amazon Rain Forest

On October 21, a new study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that the Amazon rain forest's dry season now lasts three weeks longer than it did 30 years ago. According to lead researcher Rong Fu, professor at The University of Texas, "The length of the dry season in the southern Amazon is the most important climate condition controlling the rain forest…If the dry season is too long, the rain forest will not survive." The researchers say the most likely explanation for the lengthening dry season is human-caused global warming. Effects of global warming, such as rising surface temperatures and shifts in the southern jet stream, block cold fronts that trigger rainfall in the region. According to the study, the Amazon’s annual fire season becomes longer as the dry season extends, and the threat of tree dieback increases. Since the Amazonian rain forest plays such a critical role in absorbing carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, its decline would lead to large increases in greenhouse gases. This phenomenon was evidenced in 2005 when the Amazon experienced an intense drought that caused wildfires and killed thousands of acres of forest. This released one gigatonne of carbon into the atmosphere, equal to about one-tenth of annual human emissions, and reduced carbon storage by 1.6 gigatonnes.

For additional information see: Press Release , Study , Live Science

Scientists Release Guide to Relocating Species at Risk from Climate Change

On October 16, a team of environmental scientists from New Zealand and Australia released a study detailing a new quantitative framework that can be used to determine whether endangered species should be relocated to a new area in order to save them from extinction. The researchers explain that climate change is causing traditional habitats to alter at a pace that adaptation cannot match, threatening the survival of many species. The study’s original mathematical formulations can help scientists determine which species are good candidates for relocation, where and how they should be introduced, how relocation compares with other management options, and if relocation should occur at all. “With the climate changing more rapidly than species can move or adapt, our only chance of saving some species may be to move them to more climatically suitable areas,” explained study lead author Tracy Rout, an environmental scientist at the University of Melbourne. “But introducing species into areas outside their historical range is a controversial strategy, and we have to be sure it will work, both for the animals themselves, and for other species in their new habitat.” The research was funded by the ARC Centre of Excellence for Environmental Decisions (CEED), and published in the peer-reviewed journal PLOS ONE.

For additional information see: Science Alert , Phys.org , Study

Study Examines Whether People Will Take Action on Climate Change to Help Future Generations

On October 20 the journal Nature Climate Change published a study which examines the tension between what the study describes as the reality that the costs of climate change action will accrue for people taking alive today while the benefits of action on climate change will be for future generations. The study authors aimed to discover whether people would take action on climate change in the interest of future generations, even if it caused them a loss in the present which they could not recuperate. The study used a “collective-risk group experiment,” dividing people into groups of six, and gave each participant a sum of money to invest in “climate change mitigation.” If groups met funding goals, then each member received an additional reward; the catch was that sometimes the payout was the next day, sometimes a week later, and sometimes the payout went to future generations. The study results showed that if the payout was pushed into the future, the groups were much less likely to sufficiently invest, leading the authors to suggest that “cooperation will be greatly undermined if, as in our setting, short-term gains can arise only from defection.” This led the authors to conclude “this suggests the necessity of introducing powerful short-term incentives to cooperate, such as punishment, reward or reputation, in experimental research as well as in international endeavors to mitigate climate change.”

For additional information see: Time , Study

Climate Change Has Increased Mortality in Sweden

A study released October 22 in the journal Nature Climate Change reports on the effects of climate change on mortality in Stockholm, Sweden. Climate change is linked to an increase in the duration and frequency of heat waves, and extreme temperature events have been shown to increase mortality. Researchers in the Department of Public Health and Clinical Medicine at Umeå University in Stockholm examined the number of extremely high temperature events in Stockholm between 1980 and 2009, and the number of deaths during these periods. As a control, they also examined the same data for 1900-1929. Their findings show that there an increase in extreme temperature events during the later period, contributing to an additional 300 deaths in Stockholm. Averaged out over the entire population of Sweden, the increased mortality would translate to around 1,500 additional premature deaths over the past 30 years. Study author Daniel Oudin Åström, a PhD student at Umeå University, commented on the results stating, “mortality associated with extreme heat during the relevant period was doubled, compared to if we had not had some climate change.”

For additional information see: Science Daily , Nature Climate Change