Climate Change News - October 22, 2012

Climate Change Not Discussed during Second Presidential Debate

Despite both President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney spending a great deal of the October 16 debate discussing energy policy, neither candidate mentioned climate change. After the debate, the moderator, CNN’s chief political correspondent Candy Crowley, said that she had a question prepared about climate change but ran out of time before she could ask it. Adam Fetcher, a spokesman for the Obama campaign, defended the President’s decision not to discuss climate change, saying, “Whether it’s on the stump or at the White House, President Obama has long focused on ways to develop clean energy as a core economic pillar. By advocating for the growth of renewable energy, as he did in Tuesday’s debate, President Obama has continually called for action that will address the sources of climate change.”

For additional information see: The Hill – 1 , The Hill – 2 , Pew Study , University of Texas Study , George Mason & Yale University Study

California Considering How to Integrate Carbon Offsets into Emissions Trading Scheme

In 2013, California will commence its cap and trade system to help reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by 2020 as mandated under the Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB 32). Under AB 32, California industries are required to acquire allowances for the GHGs they emit. Some emission allowances are freely allocated to utilities, manufacturers, and other businesses, while the remaining allowances will be auctioned off in a carbon market. Additionally, companies are permitted to purchase offset credits from projects that abate GHG emissions. Four carbon dioxide removal project options are available: timber management, destruction of coolant gases, cuts in methane emissions from livestock waste, and tree planting projects in urban areas. Offset credits have been vulnerable to misuse in other cap and trade systems, as evidenced by fake credits and private profits reaped in the European Union emissions trading scheme (see August 20 issue). There are also questions about ‘additionality’ of offsets, or whether projects which garner offsets would have occurred regardless. To prevent misuse, the California government has defined offset credit requirements. Forest credits, for example, cannot be issued for trees that would have been left standing anyways. Trees must be left intact for a century and forest owners must hire accredited verifiers to audit their claims. Kevin Kennedy, the director of the U.S. Climate Initiative at the World Resource Institute, emphasizes the importance of designing the system correctly, saying that, “If there is a loss of confidence because there is a sense that people have been cheating and the offsets are not real, that will be a problem.”

For additional information see: New York Times

California Emissions Trading Scheme Case Heard by Federal Court

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit heard oral arguments in Rocky Mountain Farmers Union v. Goldstene on October 16. This case is the first legal challenge to California’s Global Warming Solution Act of 2006 (AB 32) and focuses on the Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) section of the bill (see October 1 issue). The LCFS takes into account life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions for transportation fuels, and in so doing, assigns a higher carbon intensity level to fuels that are produced out-of-state, specifically corn-ethanol. This disparity in in-state fuels versus out-of state fuels is at the heart of the commerce clause dispute. During oral arguments, the three-judge panel questioned whether California could remove the geography component of the life-cycle analysis to make in-state and out-of state fuels more equal in their carbon intensity levels. This suggestion was rejected by California Deputy Attorney General Elaine Meckenstock who stated that the distance a fuel travels is a necessary component in weighing its overall environmental impact. Moreover, Sean Donahue, an attorney representing environmental groups in the lawsuit, stated that, “Lifecycle is unquestionably the scientifically appropriate way of regulating carbon from fuels.” However, Peter Kiesler, an attorney representing petrochemical producers, stated that, “A penalty for transportation inherently discriminates by origin.” A ruling from the court is expected anywhere from two to ten months, and will most likely be appealed to the Supreme Court whatever the outcome in the Ninth Circuit.

For additional information see: Reuters

Norway to Increase Carbon Tax on Oil Industry

On October 8, Norway’s Ministry of the Environment announced that it will almost double its carbon tax on its North Sea oil and gas industries. In 2013, the carbon tax rate will increase from 210 to 410 Norwegian Kroner (from about $37 to $74) per ton of carbon dioxide, which will make it one of the highest carbon tax rates in the world. Bård Vegar Solhjell, Norwegian minister of the environment, states, “The commitment to the environment must be followed up on in the budget and resolutions.” In addition to an increased carbon tax, Norway is establishing a one billion pound fund to help mitigate the effects of climate change in the developing world. The fund will focus on investments in renewable energy, food security and conversion of existing generation to low-carbon energy sources.

For additional information see: Guardian , New York Times , Norwegian Government Press Release

Afghanistan to Assess Climate Change Impacts with UN Aid

On October 11, the United Nations (UN) has announced that will be teaming up with the Afghan Government to mitigate the effects of climate change within the country. The UN Environment Programme (UNEP) has identified Afghanistan as one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change due to both the past and potential impacts of climate change and the current limited ability the Afghan government to react to such impacts. Four-fifths of Afghan livelihoods are directly dependent on natural resources, and 6.7 million people have been affected by disasters and extreme weather, such as droughts, sandstorms, and harsh winters, since 1998. The UNEP states that the country's natural ecosystems are “very fragile” and continues, “The degrading effects of increasing human activity in many areas are worsened by current climatic variability, mainly frequent droughts and extreme weather-induced floods and erosion.” The $6 million initiative will help the Afghan National Environmental Protection Agency focus on improvements in areas such as water management, water-use efficiency, agro-forestry, food security, climate research, and education and development of vocational skills in communities. The initiative is to be implemented in four main areas in the north, northeast and central regions of the country.

For additional information see: Bikya Masr , UN Press Release

Rogue Geoengineering Experiment Performed off Canadian Coast

The Haida Salmon Restoration Corporation (HSRC), in conjunction with the American businessman Russ George, dumped 100 tonnes of iron sulfate off the coast of British Columbia in July. The group dumped the iron in a nutrient-deficient section of the Pacific Ocean to spur plankton growth as a mechanism to sequester atmospheric carbon. Satellite images confirm a nearly 10,000 square kilometer plankton bloom resulting from the ocean fertilization test. According to HSRC, the test occurred with Canadian support in international waters, and the project did not break any international treaties. However, the Canadian Government is investigating the incident and international legal experts say that the test breaches two United Nations accords: the Convention on Biological Diversity and the London Convention on the Dumping of Wastes at Sea. Kristina Gjerde, a senior high seas adviser at the International Union for Conservation of Nature, said, “It appears to be a blatant violation of two international resolutions. . .Even the placement of iron particles into the ocean, whether for carbon sequestration or fish replenishment, should not take place, unless it is assessed and found to be legitimate scientific research without commercial motivation. This does not appear to even have had the guise of legitimate scientific research.” HSRC plans to analyze the amount of carbon sequestered and hopes to sell any resulting carbon offsets on carbon markets. However, without an accepted ocean fertilization protocol it is unlikely that there would be a market for the offsets.

For additional information see: Guardian – 1 , CBC News , Guardian – 2

Natural Gas Companies Support Scientific Study to Assess Refuge Methane Emissions

The University of Texas, the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), and nine major natural gas companies announced a new joint effort to accurately measure methane gas leakage from the extraction of natural gas through hydraulic fracturing. The study group will examine the life cycle of natural gas, measuring methane leakage from drilling, preparation, and production at the well and then moving to measure leakage from the gathering and processing of gas, transmission and storage, local distribution to homes and businesses, and natural-gas vehicles and their fueling stations. Previous assessments that have estimated methane gas leakage from as little as less than one percent to as much as eight percent have been scrutinized by both industry and environmentalists for their methodology and scope. A leakage rate of one percent versus eight percent means the difference between natural gas serving as a net decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions when compared to coal and oil, or a net increase. The new effort is unprecedented in the amount of access that university researchers will have to well sites and in how the data will be published in a raw format. “A lot of the studies that have been done are based on assumptions. What we’re trying to do is get past the assumptions and the ‘he said, she said’ that comes with that, and having the measurements speak for themselves,” said EDF project manager Drew Nelson. Michael Levi, director of the Program on Energy Security and Climate Change at the Council on Foreign Relations, stated that, “The EDF effort is exciting because they are going to have real data, they are going to have a variety of participants that will give it credibility. . .the problem isn’t that we don’t have enough smart people trying to interpret the data; the problem is that we don’t have enough good data.”

For additional information see: E&E Publishing , Houston Chronicle

Climate Change Increasing Frequency of Weather-Related Disasters

According to a study released October 17 by the world’s largest reinsurance company, Munich Re, weather-related disasters have increased dramatically across the globe over the past thirty years, causing upwards of one trillion dollars in insured damages. The greatest increase occurred in North America, costing approximately $510 billion and claiming nearly 30,000 lives over the thirty year period. According to the report, “Insured losses from disasters [in North America] averaged $9 billion a year in the 1980s. By the 2000s, the average soared to $36 billion per year.” Professor Peter Hoppe, head of the Munich Re geological risks group, stated, “In all likelihood, we have to regard this finding as an initial climate change footprint in our U.S. loss data from the last four decades. Previously, there had not been such a strong chain of evidence. If the first effects of climate change are already perceptible, all alerts and measures against it have become even more pressing.” Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development, suggested, “Quickly addressing SLCPs (short-lived climate pollutants, such as methane and black carbon) is the only mitigation strategy that can protect climate vulnerable people and regions, such as low-lying island states, over the next thirty to forty years.” Zaelke continued, “This is critical for the survival of the world’s most vulnerable countries, and it also can save insurance companies billions of dollars.”

For additional information see: Munich Re Press Release , Huffington Post

Coastal Cities Plan for Rising Sea Levels

Scientists reveal that the rise of sea levels has accelerated over the past 20 years and is now on pace to surpass previously estimated levels. Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann warns, “Once again, we’re ahead of schedule.” In light of new estimates, coastal cities are bracing for a one to two meter rise in sea levels by century’s end. Although the land is capable of absorbing some excess seawater, the predicted rise will be more than land capacity allows. Rising sea level engenders coastal erosion and threatens groundwater contamination. An even greater risk of flooding ensues when high tides coincide with major storms. The U.S. Global Change Research Program report, “Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.,” outlines three primary avenues to combat sea level rise. Building protective structures, such as levees or seawalls, is a method that extends a city’s protection from the encroaching sea and creates jobs in difficult economic times. A giant flood barrier, visible from outer space, is already in place in St. Petersburg, Russia. Another option is to elevate or redesign existing infrastructure, enhance surrounding wetlands, or beach re-nourishment. City planners in New York City, for example, are envisioning Wall Street as the new “Venice” of the west by considering redesigning the streets to flood. The last resort is to retreat from the coastline towns. Some island nations are already grappling with this possibility. Ambassador Masao Nakayama of the Federated States of Micronesia states, “The world has written us off.”

For additional information see: ABC News

Scientists Discuss Extreme Weather and Climate Change at Columbia University

On October 11, the Earth Institute at Columbia University hosted a conference entitled, “The State of the Planet.” Many key climate scientists speaking at the event, including NASA climatologist James Hansen and Lisa Goddard, director of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, presented studies linking climate change to the increasing frequency of extreme weather events and the communication challenges that climate scientists face. In a recently published study (see August 13 issue), Hansen noted that dramatic weather events “affected just one percent of Earth's surface between 1950 and 1980,” while, "In the last 30 years, that figure has jumped to 10 percent.” John Seinfeld, a professor of chemical engineering at California Institute of Technology stated, “The incidence of drought is consistent with what the climate models are predicting.” Seinfeld continued, “This last summer could be statistically attributed to global warming.”

For additional information see: Los Angeles Times , Climate Central , George Mason & Yale University Study

Corn Producing Regions Shifting Due to Warming Climate

Farmers are starting to believe that this summer’s drought is a glimpse of changing times ahead, and are turning to crop varieties like wheat, sorghum, or triticale that can withstand less rainfall. “These changes are happening faster than plants can adapt, so we will see substantial impacts on global growing patterns,” states Axel Schmidt, a consultant with Catholic Relief Services. While changing climactic conditions are shrinking the Midwest corn harvest, northern regions are gaining corn-growing acreage. Regions along the Canadian border, once only able to grow wheat, now grow soybeans, canola, corn, and field peas. Due to shifting climatic patterns, which affect temperatures, rainfall, and evaporation rates, corn acreage in Manitoba has doubled in the past decade. In January, the U.S. Department of Agriculture updated its plant hardiness map for the first time since 1990 to account for warming temperatures. Based on these shifts, capital is now being channeled north to areas expected to produce more acres of crops. While corn is poised to remain the most valuable crop in the United States – considering its multi-sector usage and extensive infrastructure network throughout the Corn Belt region – companies will have to adapt to new conditions by developing new corn varieties that do not require as much irrigation. Agricultural adaptation to changing climate patterns will prove “a matter of life or death” for farmers across the globe, says Wolfram Schlenker, an associate professor of environmental economics at Columbia University.

For additional information see: Sydney Morning Herald

Melting Arctic Influencing Weather Patterns

On October 10, the journal Geophysical Research Letters published a study linking the increase in Arctic air temperature over the past decade with decreased ice coverage in Greenland and extreme weather events from England to the Rocky Mountains. The Arctic air temperature warming is mainly caused by the decline in sea ice coverage that allows more solar energy to be stored in the Arctic waters, which is then released back into the atmosphere, as well as strong southerly air blasts, known as Arctic amplification. The temperature increase has caused major changes in air circulation, affecting weather patterns not just in the Arctic, but also in mid-latitude locations. Historically, Arctic summer winds have been light and variable, but in recent years they have grown in strength, pushing floating ice to sea and influencing weather patterns over Greenland, European and even North America. Lead author James Overland, a researcher at the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, said, “We’re in a new normal for Arctic Climate.” He continued, “In the long term, we're down to 50 percent [Arctic sea] ice cover in the summer, compared to the long-term average. In another couple decades, we'll probably be down to 80 percent open water. As we move in that direction, you will increase the probability of these north-south linkages of climate and weather."

For additional information see: E&E Publishing , Study

New Study Examines Correlation between Climate Change and Increased Hurricanes

A study published October 15 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences assesses whether global warming augments the formation of hurricanes. The study, limited to southern and eastern U.S. coasts, concludes that the warmer the sea surface temperature, the more likely large hurricanes will occur. While previous studies rely on satellite imagery that dates back to 1970, this study gauges tides and subsequent storm surges from 1923 onward. Lead author Aslak Grinsted, a climate scientist at the University of Copenhagen, said of the study, “We simply counted how many extreme cyclones with storm surges there were in warm years compared to cold years, and we could see that there was a tendency for more cyclones in warmer years.” Grinsted also suggested that as global temperatures increase, more damaging storms would occur. Critics of the study cite two issues. First, storm surge is not a perfect surrogate for hurricanes, although there are correlations. Second, hurricane activity in the 1920s experienced a lull, so the 1923 start date in the study portrays a more dramatic uptick than if the study were to track information from the 1800s.

For additional information see: Los Angeles Times , Climate Central , Study

Tuesday, October 23: Climate of Doubt

On October 23, the public television news documentary series FRONTLINE explores the massive shift in public opinion on climate change. Four years ago, climate change was a hot issue and politicians from both sides seemed poised to act. Today public opinion on the climate issue has cooled considerably. Politicians either ignore it or proclaim their skepticism. What’s behind this massive reversal? FRONTLINE goes inside the organizations that fought the scientific establishment to shift the direction of the climate debate. Check local PBS listings for the time.

Thursday, October 25: Clean Energy Financing: What Works?

The Embassy of Germany and the Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) invite you to a briefing hosted in coordination with the Congressional Study Group of Germany that will examine how we can fully unleash the clean energy sector to reap powerful economic growth and job creation benefits. The speakers will compare investment policies in the United States and Germany, to see what is working and what isn't. What type of regulatory framework is necessary to give clean energy companies a stable investment climate? What works best, loan guarantees, tax credits, feed-in tariffs, quotas? This event will be held Thursday, October 25, 2012, 2:00 – 3:30 p.m. in 345 Cannon House Office Building. This briefing is free and open to the public. No RSVP required.