Climate Change News - October 1, 2012

House Committee Report Outlines Climate Change Threat

A new report, "Going to Extremes: Climate Change and the Increasing Risk of Weather Disasters", published September 25 by Democratic staff members of the U.S. House of Representatives Natural Resources and Energy and Commerce Committees at the request of Reps. Henry Waxman (D-CA) and Edward Markey (D-MA) indicates strong links between carbon emission levels and rising atmospheric temperatures. As climate-change legislation remains frozen on Capitol Hill, authors of the report provide evidence that record heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and other disasters, are connected to human activities. The report cites this past summer's record-breaking heat waves and unprecedented weather in the United States as a part of the "overwhelming" evidence that climate change is happening. On a global level, the report finds that, “This August was the fourth-warmest August globally – marking the 330th consecutive month that global average temperatures were above the 20th-century average.” Expressing his frustration with the House’s inaction, Rep. Waxman said, "Carbon pollution is mixing a deadly cocktail of heat and extreme weather that is costing lives and billions of dollars in damages.”

For additional information see: United Press International , The Hill , Report ,

Appeals Court Dismisses Climate Change Nuisance Claim

On September 21, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit upheld a district court ruling dismissing a public nuisance claim by the Alaskan City of Kivalina against 22 energy producers for damages associated with global warming. The suit alleged that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the 22 energy producers, including ExxonMobil, Shell Oil, and Xcel Energy, contributed to global warming that has caused substantial erosion threatening the existence of the city. The U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California originally found that to resolve the case the court would have to determine what were acceptable levels of GHG emissions and who should bear the cost of damages associated with global warming. The District Court held that these determinations were inherently political questions and should be left to the legislative and executive branches. The Ninth Circuit, following Supreme Court precedent from American Power Co., Inc. v. Connecticut (2011), upheld the District Court ruling that the public nuisance claim was a non-justiciable political question. The Ninth Circuit stated, “In sum, the Supreme Court has held that federal common law addressing domestic greenhouse gas emissions has been displaced by Congressional action. That determination displaces federal common law public nuisance actions seeking damages. . .Our conclusion obviously does not aid Kivalina, which itself is being displaced by the rising sea. But the solution to Kivalina’s dire circumstance must rest in the hands of the legislative and executive branches of our government, not the federal common law.”

For additional information see: Bloomberg BNA , Forbes , Environmental Appeals Court

California’s Global Warming Solutions Act Faces Legal Challenges

In the absence of federal climate change legislation, the California Assembly passed the Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32) in 2006 which directed the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to develop rules and regulations to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2020, including a cap and trade system as well as a Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS). The first major legal challenge, Rocky Mountain Farmers Union v. Goldstene, is directed at the LCFS and will be heard by the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals following an initial district court hearing which found the LCFS unconstitutional under the commerce clause of the U.S. Constitution. The LCFS seeks to reduce the carbon intensity of transportation fuels sold in the state by 10 percent by 2020. The argument over the LCFS centers on the GHG life-cycle standard used to determine how much GHG emissions are emitted throughout the production and transportation of fuels. Specifically, the LCFS has determined that ethanol from the Midwest has a higher carbon intensity level due to the amount of energy used in its production and transportation to California. As such, fuels produced in California have been given a lower carbon intensity rating, resulting in an economic edge over out-of-state fuels.

For additional information see: Environmental and Energy Publishing

UN Climate Negotiations Hit Recurring Snag

United Nations (UN) negotiations on carbon emission reduction targets hit another obstacle September 21, following a meeting between Brazil, South Africa, India, and China (BASIC). The BASIC ministers released a statement arguing that a new global carbon emissions agreement must distinguish responsibilities between industrialized and emerging economies. This distinction harkens back to the principle of common but differentiated responsibility and the original 1992 Framework Convention on Climate Change, which identified separate responsibilities for Annex 1 (developed) and non-Annex 1 (developing) countries. Under the Kyoto Protocol, only Annex 1 countries were required to report emissions, a major reason the U.S. Senate failed to ratify the Protocol. At the Durban Climate Change Conference this past December, ministers agreed to the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action calling for an updated “comprehensive legal regime” void of Annex distinctions. However, the newly released BASIC statement reintroduces divided emissions responsibilities, saying, “All countries should participate in an enhanced global effort to be implemented after 2020. . .which would respect the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and differentiation between Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 Parties.” These debates will be at the forefront of the next UN climate meeting taking place this November in Qatar.

For additional information see: Reuters

CRS Study Assess the Deficit Reduction Potential of a Carbon Tax

A Congressional Research Service (CRS) study released September 17 finds that a carbon tax could reduce the predicted U.S. 10-year budget deficit by more than 50 percent. The CRS calculates that an initial $20 tax per tonne of carbon dioxide, which increases over time, could raise $88 billion in 2012 and $154 billion in 2021. A carbon tax would reduce the Congressional Budget Office baseline 10-year U.S. deficit of $2.3 trillion, to $1.1 trillion. The CRS report analyzes the deficit reduction capability of a carbon tax, but acknowledges that some revenue from a tax would likely be used to offset cost increases to consumers or businesses. The revenue findings are smaller than a similar study performed by researchers at Massachusetts Institute of Technology (see September 3 issue). In August, Rep. Jim McDermott (D-WA) introduced carbon tax legislation in the House (see August 13 issue).

For additional information see: The Hill , CRS Report

Economic Effects of Climate Change Quantified in New Study

On September 26, DARA, a humanitarian non-governmental organization, published a report that estimates climate change-related economic losses at $1.2 trillion annually, or 1.6 percent of annual global Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This figure will double by 2030 if no action is taken. Developing countries will suffer the brunt of this in the form of extreme weather which impacts agricultural production, resulting in deaths by malnutrition, poverty and associated diseases. Globally, these conditions result in five million deaths annually, with the number set to increase to 100 million by 2030 if no action is taken. Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina says, “[A] one degree Celsius rise in temperature is associated with 10 percent productivity loss in farming. For us, it means about four million metric tonnes of food grain, amounting to about $2.5 billion. That is about two percent of our GDP. Adding up the damages to property and other losses, we are faced with a total loss of about three to four percent of GDP. Without these losses, we could have easily secured much higher growth.” Developed countries are not immune. By 2030 drought, flood and severe storms could result in a 2.1 percent drop in GDP for both the United States and China. The report suggests that it will take about 0.5 percent of GDP this decade to transition to a low-carbon economy.

For additional information see: Reuters , The Guardian

Coal Use Declines in the United States, Rises in EU

U.S. coal exports to Europe are on the rise, causing a 2.2 percent increase in European Union (EU) carbon emissions this year. Tough economic times, and in some countries, the phase-out of nuclear power have compelled the EU to buy cheaper energy sources such as coal. However, signs point toward this being a temporary measure. Andrew Horstead of the energy consulting firm Utilyx says, “Coal generation has been running hard, boosting emissions across Europe, but to such an extent that opted-out LCPD [EU’s Large Combustion Plant Directive on curbing harmful emissions] coal plants are using up their allocated hours bringing forward the expected closure of these plants.” Meanwhile, in the United States, natural gas usage for electricity is increasing. As a result of decreased coal usage, U.S. carbon emissions are set to fall by 2.4 percent this year, although researchers at the Energy Information Administration expect coal usage to rebound, at least temporarily (see September 24 issue).

For additional information see: Reuters , The Hill

Study Warns Insurers Must Adapt to Changing Climate

The increased frequency of extreme weather events driven by climate change threatens economic losses for the insurance industry. A new report issued by Ceres, a nonprofit advocating sustainable business practices, warns that the risk models used by insurance companies are outdated. Scientists recorded 14 extreme weather events in 2011, costing insurance companies nearly $1 billion per event. It is expected that the 2012 drought alone will cost $20 billion, mainly in the form of federally-backed crop insurance. Washington State Insurance Commissioner Mike Kreidler commented, “Insurance is the first line defense against extreme weather losses, but climate change is a game-changer for the models that insurers have long relied on.” Companies are now charging higher premiums in locations prone to weather events, or are pulling out of these areas altogether; actions that the report argues will not be sustainable in the long term. Ceres recommends that insurance companies take an active role influencing infrastructure development, advocating reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, and researching weather and climate patterns to prepare future risk management strategies.

For additional information see: The Huffington Post

Undecided Voters Care about Climate Change

With the elections a little over a month away, a study released September 24 by Yale and George Mason Universities, concludes that self-described “undecided” voters want more federal action on climate change. The survey, part of the Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, shows that 64 percent and 72 percent of undecided voters say that President Barack Obama and Congress, respectively, should be doing more to address climate change. The survey also finds that only 45 percent of the respondents who say that they will vote for Mitt Romney believe climate change is occurring, while 86 percent of likely Obama voters say that it is happening. For those who are still undecided, 80 percent believe that global warming is occurring and say that, “The presidential candidates’ positions on global warming will be one of several important factors determining how they cast their votes on November 6.” Furthermore, the survey respondents urge candidates to "clarify their position on climate change as Election Day approaches.”

For additional information see: Salon , The Hill , Study

Rising Ocean Temperatures and Acidification Threaten Food Security

Oceana issued a September 2012 report ranking countries expected to be the hardest hit from the combined effects of warming ocean temperatures and increasing acidification caused by of dioxide emissions. Rankings were calculated according to “country adaptive capacity” (based on population growth, undernourishment, and GDP), dependence on marine species for protein, and exposure to warming oceans and acidification. The top five most vulnerable countries are Comoros, Togo, Cook Islands, Kiribati, and Eritrea. Overall, the report reveals that at-risk countries vary from small Pacific island nations that rely on seafood as a primary protein source, to oil-rich, yet malnourished countries of the Persian Gulf. Study author Matthew Huelsenbeck, a marine scientist at Oceana, emphasizes that, “Most of the nations that will suffer have done very little to cause climate change.” An estimated three billion people obtain over 15 percent of their annual protein from seafood. However, the report anticipates that regions like the Persian Gulf will lose more than 50 percent of their fisheries. The United States, while more capable of adapting to changes in food supplies, risks 12 percent losses of its potential catch by mid-century.

For additional information see: The Guardian , Climate Central , Report

Marine Predators Habitat Will Change with Climate

A study published September 23 in Nature Climate Change finds that the North Pacific Ocean’s top predators are vulnerable to losing up to 35 percent of their habitat within the next century due to climate change. Elliott Hazen, the study’s lead author and a scientist with the National Oceanic and At¬mospheric Administration’s Southwest Fisheries Science Center, indicates that as ocean temperatures rise, key marine predators, including blue whales, loggerhead turtles, and mako sharks are seeing their habitats decrease. The study monitored sea surface temperature and chlorophyll levels to indicate and track key habitat areas. It found that the North Pacific Transition Zone, an area where polar nutrient- rich waters meet warmer nutrient-poor waters, is being pushed north. As a result, this major migration corridor could lose up to 20 percent of its species diversity. Based on the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections that global atmospheric temperatures could increase 1.8 to 10.8 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100, Hanzen suggests the, “effects would be noticeable by 2040”. Scientists also suggest that other areas, such as the California Current running along the U.S. West Coast, will remain unchanged. As a result of this new information, scientists can now “design mobile marine protected areas that can protect threatened predators while minimizing impacts on fisheries”.

For additional information see: Washington Post , USA Today , Study

Coastal Salt Marshes Will Sequester Carbon until Submerged by Sea Level Rise

A study published September 27 in the journal Nature, concludes that salt marshes have an important role to play sequestering atmospheric carbon. Coastal salt marsh grasses store between 10 and 130 million tonnes of carbon annually in the soil – which at the high end is equivalent to the emissions of Mexico or Italy. Climate change may actually increase carbon absorption in the short term because increased flooding introduces more nutrients to the coastal regions. The study states, "The net impact of temperature warming and sea level rise is to increase carbon burial rates in the first half of the twenty-first century." Salt marsh plants can withstand a one millimeter annual increase in sea level rise. However, the analysis finds that at some point after 2050 salt marshes will no longer absorb carbon due to inundation by sea level rise. Lead author Matt Kirwan, assistant professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, said, "If the plant is submerged 100 percent of the time, the roots cannot get more oxygen and the plant dies. Once the marsh dies it is not sequestering any carbon."

For additional information see: Scientific American , Science Daily

Tuesday, October 2: Advancing the Deployment of Electric Vehicles

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) invites you to a briefing about the growth of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) in the United States and efforts to spur greater transport electrification. The briefing will discuss how communities, utilities, private companies, the government and others are leading efforts to put more PEVs on the nation’s roads by capitalizing on new technologies and working to overcome market barriers. The briefing will explore ways to foster more rapid PEV adoption across multiple sectors and the different rationales for doing so. Speakers will also discuss the various benefits of increased PEV market share; how utilities, communities and other businesses are developing more PEV-friendly areas; and the growing electrification of vehicle fleets. This event will be held Tuesday, October 2, 2012, 3:30 – 5:00 p.m. in 121 Cannon House Office Building. This briefing is free and open to the public. No RSVP required.