Climate Change News - November 25, 2013

Congressional Budget Office Says Carbon Tax Could Cut $1 Trillion Off Deficit 

On November 19, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published a report identifying a $25 per ton carbon tax as the most effective choice to reduce the deficit in the next decade, out of 103 discussed options. According to the report, a tax of $25 per ton carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) emission with a 2 percent annual increase could raise just over $1 trillion in federal revenue over a decade, while achieving an estimated 10 percent reduction of emissions from sources subjected to the tax. “One argument in support of the [carbon tax] option is that it would reduce emissions of greenhouse gases at the lowest possible cost per ton of emissions because each ton would be subject to the same tax,” the report says. The report also states that the higher producing and consuming cost caused by the tax would incentivize emission reduction actions throughout the economy, while providing more flexibility than regulatory approaches under the Clean Air Act. The next best option on the CBO list is increasing the payroll tax rate for Medicare hospital insurance by one percent, raising an estimated $859 billion between 2014 and 2023.

For additional information see: The Hill, Congressional Budget Office, E&E News

 

 

Majority of Americans Support Government Action on Global Warming

On November 13, Dr. Jon Krosnick, Director of the Political Psychology Research Group at Stanford University, presented new polling data revealing that the majority of people (75 percent and up) in every state surveyed (46) think the earth is warming. The poll also reveals that a majority in each state (65 percent and up) think humans are responsible, and at least 62 percent in each state surveyed support federal action to curb greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from power plants. The data, presented to the Bicameral Climate Change Task Force, was collected from almost 20,000 respondents across 46 states from 2006 to 2013. However, according to research from the Center for American Progress, 58 percent of Republicans in Congress reject the existence of global warming or oppose cuts to GHG. Dr. Krosnick commented on the disconnect between lawmaker and public opinion, stating that lawmakers “may not have an accurate view of what their constituents want.” According to task force co-chair, Representative Henry Waxman (D-CA), “this new report is crystal clear . . . It shows that the vast majority of Americans - whether from red states or blue - understand that climate change is a growing danger."

For additional information see: The Hill, The Guardian, Salon, Committee on Energy and Commerce

 

 

Colorado Releases Draft Oil and Gas Methane Emission Rules

On November 18, Colorado health officials proposed new regulations for the oil and gas industry. The rules would require operators to capture almost all of the climate change-causing air pollutants, equivalent to 92,000 tons of toxins per year, from both oil and gas wells and storage tanks. Operators will be responsible for detecting methane leaks and reducing emissions by 95 percent, especially near population centers. The Colorado regulations would be the first in the United States to regulate methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas. The rules are aimed primarily at hydraulic fracturing, a process which has proliferated in Colorado in recent years. Areas around wells have seen an increase in ground-level ozone formed from methane and other chemicals, which can cause and exacerbate asthma. According to Colorado Governor John Hickenlooper, “these are going to amount to the very best air quality regulations in the country.” Currently, the industry’s methane emissions are mostly unregulated. While some industry experts believe the costs will be burdensome to operators, citing compliance costs of up to $80 million per year, the legislation was drafted with industry input. Ted Brown, Senior Vice President at Noble Energy, commented that the rules are “the right thing to do” for the environment and the health of Coloradans, but that “it’s a tough rule, make no mistake. This is an additional layer of regulations and it’s been a very tough road to get here.” The Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) helped Colorado draft the regulations, which will face formal hearings in February.

For additional information see: The Denver Post, The Colorado Springs Gazette, The New York Times

 

 

Tennessee Valley Authority Announces Closure of Coal Fired Power Plants

On November 14, the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) announced its plan to close six coal-fired power plants in Alabama and switch two coal-powered plants to natural gas in Kentucky.  Altogether the plants total 3,300 megawatts of capacity and significant amount of greenhouse gas emissions: in 2012 they produced 14.1 million tons of carbon dioxide (CO2), a decrease from their mid-2000s peak of 22 million annual tons CO2. The move is a response to expected CO2 emissions caps for existing power plants currently being drafted by the Environmental Protection Agency to help mitigate climate change, as well as mercury and sulfur dioxide emission caps that will come into effect in 2016. Declining consumption of power, competition from low-cost natural gas and the increasing age of the plants also contributed to their retirement. The TVA hopes to reduce coal generation to about 20 percent of its total generating capacity, from its current level of 38 percent. Additionally, it plans to increase the deployment of renewable energy such as solar and hydropower to 20 percent of operations. Despite written pleas from most of the Kentucky Congressional delegation to keep the plants open, including one from Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), TVA President Bill Johnson said the closures were “the best decision for the entire region.” Since 2011, when TVA was sued for Clean Air Act violations by states and environmental groups, they have closed four coal power-generating units, with plans to close 18 overall. Bruce Nilles, director of the Sierra Club’s Beyond Coal campaign, commented “it’s a big deal . . . The TVA has been for decades one of the largest coal burners in the country . . . [and the closures represent] a huge opportunity to decarbonize the electricity sector in a very short time.”

For additional information see: The Washington Post, The New York Times

 

 

Japan Reverses 25% Greenhouse Gas Reduction Targets at UNFCCC

On November 15, at the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meetings in Warsaw, Japan announced that it was retracting its 2009 commitment to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. Japan now plans to cut emissions to 3.8 percent below 2005 levels by 2020, three percent more than 1990 emissions levels.  Despite criticisms from the United States, China and the European Union, Japanese Environment Minister Nobuteru Ishihara stated the move was inevitable, "given that none of the nuclear reactors [are] operating.” All 50 of Japan’s nuclear power plants were closed after the March 2011 earthquake and tsunami that severely damaged the Fukushima Daiichi reactors. Japanese Environmental Ministry data shows that Japan was not on course to meet its previous target even prior to the 2011 earthquake; greenhouse emissions increased 7 percent by 2005, relative to 1990 levels. Climate Analytics, a Berlin-based think tank, states that replacing all of Japan’s nuclear fleet with present fossil fuels would reduce the original 25 percent reduction target to roughly 18 percent reduction levels. Before the nuclear shutdown, Japan’s generated 26 percent of its power from nuclear energy. Since its halt of nuclear power generation, Japan has increased natural gas consumption by 8.4 percent and coal use is up 4.4 percent. As the world’s third-largest economy, Japan is considered crucial to the Warsaw UNFCCC negotiations. Naoyuki Namagishi, an official at World Wildlife Federation Japan, commented on the potential effect of the Japanese decision, stating “it could further accelerate the race to the bottom among other developed countries when the world needs decisive and immediate actions to ‘raise’ ambition not to ‘lower’ ambition.”  

For additional information see: Reuters, The Sydney Morning Herald, Climate Analytics

 

 

World Bank Reports Growing Losses from Extreme Weather Since 1980

On November 18, the World Bank released a new report calling for greater investment in climate and disaster resilience development, as the costs and damages from extreme weather are increasing due to global warming. Citing data from the reinsurance company Munich Re, the report finds that economic losses from disasters have risen from an annual average of around $50 billion in 1980 to almost $200 billion in 2012, with a total of $3.8 trillion in costs throughout the time period. The report attributes 74 percent of that cost to extreme weather. The data shows that weather-related losses are concentrated in fast-growing, middle-income countries whose high-value assets are becoming more exposed. The average disaster impact in developing countries was one percent of gross domestic product over the period from 2001 to 2006, ten times higher than the average in high-income countries. The report explains that building infrastructure that is resilient to climate and weather disasters is the logical path forward, and although initial costs can be 10 to 50 percent higher, the investments pay off in the long term. Helpful technology such as early warning systems yield benefits four to 36 times their original cost outlay. “We are putting disaster risk management at the forefront of our agenda,” said Rachel Kyte, the World Bank’s Vice President of Sustainable Development. “We know there is a lot we can – and must – do to reduce the impact of disasters. The devastation and human tragedy we see in the Philippines now is a stark reminder of the challenges ahead, and it strengthens our resolve.”

For additional information see: World Bank, Bloomberg, Press Release, Report

 

 

Independent Report Finds ‘Catastrophic’ Looming Gap in Climate Data

On November 14, a federally commissioned review panel said that in 2016 the United States faces a likely deficit in weather and climate data, due to a year-long gap between the retirement of a polar orbiting satellite and the launch of its replacement. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and international forecasting agencies have warned that the data gap could severely impair the prediction of significant weather events. The panel advised NOAA to begin construction on a “gap-filling” satellite as soon as possible, to ensure that crucial weather and climate information is collected. Due to mismanagement, billions of dollars in cost overruns, and technical obstacles, replacement satellites in the Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) have been significantly delayed. “The lack of JPSS data due to a gap could prove catastrophic, [and] we believe it is urgent to procure a gap-filler, despite the harsh fiscal environment on Capitol Hill,” said A. Thomas Young, chairman of the review panel. In the event that a gap-filler satellite is not approved, a NOAA report found that the next best option would be purchasing data from comparable Chinese satellites.

For additional information see: Climate Central, Related: Climate Central, Space News

 

 

UCLA Studies Path to a Sustainable Los Angeles

On November 15, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) announced a new study which will examine the best approaches to shift the entire Los Angeles (LA) region to 100 percent renewable energy and local water by 2050. For its “Thriving in a Hotter Los Angeles” project, UCLA aims to raise $150 million to conduct new research into the science and technology that would enable LA to reach its climate goals. The project hopes to address climate change through local action, “to solve one of the largest environmental problems of our time in our own backyard,” explained Mark Gold, associate director of UCLA Institute of the Environment and Sustainability. The study will examine smart electrical grids, environmentally friendly ocean water desalination, carbon-free transportation infrastructure, wildlife underpasses and habitats, and other ideas. Sixty faculty and staff members from 30 centers and 22 departments across UCLA will be collaborating on the project. Recent studies have projected that the Los Angeles region will be four to five degrees F warmer by 2050, with 30 to 40 percent less snowfall in local mountain ranges. Currently, LA imports almost all of its water, and relies on fossil fuels for energy and transportation. The university hopes to present a draft of its findings and recommendations to local government by 2019.

For additional information see: LA Times, Curbed LA, UCLA Press Release

 

 

Global Warming Impacts on World’s Oceans Are Faster than Expected and Expensive

On November 13, the United Nations and several scientific research organizations published a report showing that ocean acidification is occurring at an unprecedented rate, faster than at any time in the last 300 million years. The report synthesized recent scientific reports to create a comprehensive model of ocean acidification, revealing 80 percent more ocean acidification is occurring than previously predicted. The world’s oceans absorb about one quarter of the world's carbon emissions; as seawater absorbs carbon, it reacts to form a mild acid. Global warming has also increased ocean temperatures, which has been observed to decrease oxygen circulation at certain depths. Together, the phenomena of acidification, warming, and decreasing levels of oxygen amplify each other. Report co-author Ulf Riebesell, a biochemist at the Geomar Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Germany, says these three effects are being described by scientists as making the ocean “hot, sour and breathless.” Oceans have already seen a 26 percent increase in acidity since the 1880's, and levels are expected to grow. In 50 years the acidity will be so high that some mollusks, like clams and mussels, will start corroding.

In related news, on November 14 a group of scientists released a report describing the potential economic losses of ocean acidification, which could affect around 540 million people who depend on the ocean to make a living. In the mollusk industry alone, losses could total $130 billion within this century. Reductions in coral reefs could cost up to $1 trillion before 2100. The work was based on research presented at the Third Symposium on the Ocean in a High-CO2 World, held in Monterey, CA in September 2012. The report was sponsored by the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme, the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, and the Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research.

For additional information see: Huffington Post, Quartz, Report

 

 

Study Finds Global Warming More Than Twice As Fast As Previous Estimate Due to Data Gaps

On November 12, a new paper published filled the data gap of UK Met Office’s HadCRUT4 temperature data set, a widely quoted measure of global warming, and found that global surface temperatures have been warming two and a half times faster than Met Office estimates over the past 16 years. Temperature trends starting in 1997 or 1998 were particularly affected. The study, led by Kevin Cowtan from the University of York and Robert Way from University of Ottawa, noted that the HadCRUT4 data set only covers about 84 percent of Earth’s surface, leaving gaps in areas including the Arctic, Antarctica and Africa. By applying two statistical methods (one a geostatistical interpolation and extrapolation method called “kriging,” and the other a combination of data sets to make “hybrid” data) to the satellite data on both surface and ocean temperature, the researchers were able to fill the data gaps. Using kriging and hybrid methods, they found a 0.11 and a 0.12 degree Celsius per decade warming trend since 1997, respectively, instead of the relatively small 0.046 degree Celsius per decade previously estimated by the Met Office. The study was published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society.

For additional information see: University of York, The Guardian, Study

 

 

Nuclear Plants Cheapest Method to Reduce Emissions in Poland, Says Report

On November 13, the Polish government released a report stating that the least expensive method for Poland to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions would be to build nuclear power plants. Poland, which currently generates 90 percent of its electricity from coal power plants, is creating a national plan to modernize its energy sector, increase its efficiency and cut global warming-causing emissions. The report advised increased spending on power infrastructure of $8.3 to $11.8 billion annually, on top of its current $18 billion annual allowance. Poland’s most recent plans to install a nuclear project by 2023 stalled due to citizen opposition and budgetary restrictions, and in September, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that “Poland’s economy will continue to be based on coal, but in a more modern way.” Tusk explained that new technology would help Poland reduce CO2 emissions to meet European Union targets. The report examined many different scenarios to reduce Poland’s greenhouse gas emissions from present day to 2060, before concluding that nuclear plants represent the cheapest option. The report was released in the middle of the 19th United National Climate Change Conference, hosted in Warsaw, Poland.

For additional information see: Reuters, Polskie Radio

 

 

Global Carbon Emissions to Hit 36 Billion Tonnes by End of 2013

On November 18, the Global Carbon Project led by researchers from the Tyndall Centre at the University of East Anglia released the latest Global Carbon Budget figure, reporting that global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will reach the record high of 36 billion tonnes in 2013, 61 percent above the 1990 baseline for the Kyoto Protocol. Global emissions are projected to rise 2.1 percent for 2013, a slower trend in comparison to the average 2.7 percent annual rise for the past 10 years. According to the report, the biggest emitters in 2012 were China, United States, European Union and India, which contributed 27 percent, 14 percent, 10 percent and 6 percent to global fossil fuel emissions, respectively. The report also identified coal as the greatest source of emissions, saying that its growth accounted for 54 percent of 2012 growth in fossil fuel emissions. Most emissions are from coal, oil and gas, representing 43 percent, 33 percent and 18 percent of the total, respectively. Professor Corinne Le Quéré of the Tyndall Centre who led the Global Carbon Budget commented, “Governments meeting in Warsaw this week need to agree on how to reverse this trend. Emissions must fall substantially and rapidly if we are to limit global climate change to below two degrees. Additional emissions every year cause further warming and climate change."

For additional information see: New York Times, Tyndall Center, Report

 

 

Study Shows Need to Cut Carbon Dioxide and Short-Lived Climate Pollutants

A paper published 21 November in Nature Climate Change confirms earlier studies finding that immediate and aggressive cuts in both carbon dioxide (CO2) and short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) are necessary to maintain global temperatures below 2 degrees C through the end of the century. This confirms earlier research by Dr. V. Ramanathan of Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Drew Shindell director of the NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies; and others that mitigation of three of the four SLCPs (black carbon, methane, and tropospheric ozone) would lead to about 0.5 to 0.6 degrees C of avoided warming. “The real challenge for both CO2 and SLCPs is not the science, but rather the politics of how to get the reductions,” said Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development.  “There is a profound difference between knowing what to do and figuring out the politics to get it done.” The new paper concludes that “Immediate action on SLCPs might potentially ‘buy time’ for adaptation by reducing near-term warming,” but warns that action to reduce SLCPs cannot replace action to reduce CO2.

For additional information see: NBC News, Reporting Climate Science, The Guardian

 

 

Report Finds that Weather and Climate Change Create Risks to Investments

On November 20, the American Meteorological Society (AMS) released findings that climate variability and weather events create and exacerbate risks to near-term financial investments. The study outlined ten ways that climate and weather impact financial investments, including supply chain disruptions, physical threats to the investment itself, legal liability, and changes in the availability of key resources. The study authors conclude that financial decision makers would benefit from increased access to understandable climate and weather information, in order to accurately calculate risks. To this end, the report breaks down the level of understood likelihood of climate change impacts using three parameters: “possible,” “probable” and “effectively certain.” For example, the study authors say that it is “effectively certain” that changes in the climate will cause changes in weather, that it is “probable” that global warming will lead to increased intensity in weather events, and that it is “possible” climate change will cause widespread and major disruptions to key global life-support services. “Near-term financial decisions have long-term implications for the United States’ social and economic well-being that depend, in part, on climate variability and change,” commented Paul Higgins, director of the AMS Policy Program. “Nations that invest most effectively with respect to weather and climate risks will have an important competitive advantage.” The study was based at an AMS workshop held in partnership with the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) in June 2013.

For additional information see: Report

 

 

Other Headlines

Supreme Court Upholds California Carbon Allowance Requirement
Billboards Demand Improvements to CNBC’s Climate Change Reporting
Top UN Official Says Most of World’s Coal Needs to Stay in the Ground
House Energy Committee Leaders Ask EPA to Withdraw Carbon Limits for Power Plants
Poland Fires Environment Minister and Current UNFCCC President Marcin Korolec

 

Writers: Mengpin Ge, Laura Small, Jessie Stolark, and Gabrielle Tilley