Climate Change News - November 19, 2012

Carbon Tax Could Be Part of Tax Reform Discussions

With the fiscal cliff and budget sequestration looming, a carbon tax has been discussed in various policy circles as a potential method to raise revenue as part of a larger tax reform package. On November 13, the American Enterprise Institute, along with the Brookings Institution, the International Monetary Fund and Resources for the Future, hosted a day-long event discussing recent research about the potential design and economic impacts of a carbon tax. A new Brookings study estimates that a $20 per tonne carbon dioxide tax would raise $150 billion annually and raise the price of gasoline and electricity by 9 to 10 percent. Previous studies performed by the Congressional Research Service and Massachusetts Institute of Technology come to similar conclusions (see September 3 and October 1 issues). The revenue could be used towards offsetting corporate or individual tax rates, offsetting the impact of higher energy prices for low-income families, decreasing the debt, paying for discretionary funding or for increased renewable energy and energy efficiency research, development and deployment.

For additional information see: Washington Post , E&E Publishing , The Hill – 1 , The Hill – 2 , Bloomberg News

President Acknowledges Importance of Climate Change, Vague on Responses

On November 14, at the first press conference since his re-election, President Obama addressed climate change. The President said, “I am a firm believer that climate change is real, that it is impacted by human behavior and carbon emissions. And as a consequence, I think we’ve got an obligation to future generations to do something about it.” When questioned about actions to combat climate change during his second term – after highlighting fuel efficiency standards and deployment of renewable energy during the first term – the President stated, “So what I’m going to be doing over the next several weeks, next several months, is having a conversation, a wide-ranging conversation with scientists, engineers and elected officials to find out what can – what more can we do to make short-term progress in reducing carbons, and then working through an education process that I think is necessary, a discussion, the conversation across the country about, you know, what realistically can we do long term to make sure that this is not something we’re passing on to future generations that’s going to be very expensive and very painful to deal with.” The President said that he would not support anything that would jeopardize jobs or the economy but said, “If, on the other hand, we can shape an agenda that says we can create jobs, advance growth and make a serious dent in climate change and be an international leader, I think that’s something that the American people would support.” He continued, “So you know, you can expect that you’ll hear more from me in the coming months and years about how we can shape an agenda that garners bipartisan support.”

For additional information see: The Hill , Politico , Transcript

EU Postpones Implementation of Emissions Trading Scheme for Aviation

On November 12, European Commissioner for Climate Action Connie Hedegaard announced a one-year suspension of the European Union (EU) price on carbon emissions emitted by airplanes departing from or landing in EU airports to allow the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) time to work out an international agreement. The EU emissions levy has been criticized by the United States, China, and developing countries as an illegal act under international law. Hedegaard stated, “Now it seems that because of some countries’ dislike of our scheme many countries are prepared to move in the ICAO, and even to move towards a market-based mechanism at a global level.” The ICAO will assemble a policy committee to explore alternative methods of encouraging airline emission reductions, including a carbon trading scheme, carbon offsetting programs, or alternative fuels and emissions standards. An official resolution is expected at the end of June 2013 that will then be presented at the ICAO general assembly in November 2013. Jason Anderson, head of European Climate and Energy Policy at World Wildlife Fund, added, “This is a great chance for ICAO members to show leadership and push for a global agreement on this issue.”

For additional information see: Guardian , New York Times , Reuters , The Hill

Governor Cuomo Says New York Will Lead on Climate Action

In response to the damage caused by Hurricane Sandy, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo wrote an opinion article in the New York Daily News propounding the need to be proactive on climate change. “Extreme weather is the new normal,” Cuomo said, “The denial and deliberation from extremists on both sides about the causes of climate change are distracting us from addressing its inarguable effects. Recent events demand that we get serious once and for all.” Cuomo will establish three commissions to address augmenting emergency response mechanisms. The governor appealed to the gripes of New Yorkers, describing power utilities as “the equivalent of vinyl records in the age of the iPod: antiquated, 1950s-style institutions that don’t serve our current needs.” Cuomo suggested the need of more readily available generators, pumping systems and contingency plans for when public transportation and telecommunications are affected, especially with regard to first responders getting to those in need. He said when rebuilding, infrastructure should be better equipped to withstand extreme weather, and when possible, located in less vulnerable areas with upgraded building codes and lower energy consumption. Cuomo continued, “We will not allow the national paralysis over climate change to stop us from pursuing the necessary path for the future.”

For additional information see: New York Daily News , WNYC News

California Holds Greenhouse Gas Credit Auction

On November 14, California held its first greenhouse gas credit auction. The auction was reported to be successful, although full results will not be released until November 19. With one credit constituting one metric tonne of carbon dioxide emissions, 23.1 million credits were offered for the first phase, starting in 2013, and 39.5 million for the second phase beginning in 2015. The price of carbon futures dropped 25 cents to $12.15 per tonne, down 40 percent from $20.25 on July 24. The California market is the second largest carbon market after the European Union emissions trading scheme. The auction is expected generate up to $1 billion for the state. Before the auction, the California Chamber of Commerce filed suit against the state, labeling the program unconstitutional and the fee an illegal tax. However, the auction was not disrupted.

For additional information see: Bloomberg Businessweek , ABC News , Mercury News

Small Island States Receive Support from African Nations to Phase down HFCs

Delegates met in Geneva the week of November 12-15 for the 24th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol. One major order of business was discussing the proposed international phase-down of production and use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), super greenhouse gases that the Montreal Protocol has inadvertently encouraged as substitutes for the chemicals the Protocol is phasing out. In Geneva, low-lying island states found new allies this week among climate-vulnerable African countries for their strategy to phase down HFCs. While China and India have remained reluctant to launch formal negotiations to phase down HFCs, the majority of Parties recognized the need for urgent action to slow climate change and agreed for the first time to establish a “discussion group” to address HFCs through the Montreal Protocol. South Africa noted that there is no need to “reinvent the wheel” by developing such a phase-down under the primary climate treaty, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The Minister of Environment and Energy from the Republic of Maldives, Dr. Mariyam Shakeela, made an impassioned plea to use the Protocol to phase-out HFCs. “Ladies and gentleman, for countries like Maldives, who are on the front line of climate change impacts every forum is a right forum. We have no choice. No time to spare.”

For additional information see: Environmental News Network

Climate Aid a Major Issue in Upcoming International Talks

Despite promises made by rich nations that they would increase aid to developing nations to help with climate change adaptation, current pledges show that aid will continue, but not increase in 2013. At the 2009 United Nations (UN) climate negotiations in Copenhagen, many world leaders, including President Barack Obama agreed to a fast-start program, pledging money to help developing nations slow and mitigate climate change. Additionally, world leaders pledged $100 billion in annual aid by 2020. However, as a result of economic crises, many nations including Japan, the United States, and the European Union, are finding it difficult to fulfill pledges to help developing nations curb greenhouse gas emissions and adapt for extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and floods. These nations are now being criticized for putting off funding increases and making no indication of future plans. Seyni Nafo, spokesman for a group of 54 African nations at UN climate negotiations, stated, “There should be a transparent process to scale up finance,” as well as “an indication that funding will not fall off a cliff.” Christiana Figueres, head of the UN Climate Change Secretariat, indicated that aid would not fall, stating, "Governments. . .will at least maintain the current funding and they will in Doha look at the path along which they will ramp up to reach the $100 billion of mixed-sources of funding." Others are not so optimistic. Tim Gore of the development group at Oxfam argued, "At the very best we are looking at a flat-lining but we fear we will see a fall compared to the fast start finance," and predicted that Spain, Italy, Greece, and eastern Europe would all cut aid funding.

For additional information see: Reuters

Federal Flood Insurance Comes Under Fire after Hurricane Sandy

In the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy, long-standing concerns about federal flood insurance administered by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) have come to the forefront of climate change discussion. The concerns center around outdated flood maps that have not been updated since the 1980s, budgetary shortfalls (the program was $17.75 billion in debt before Hurricane Sandy), and perverse incentives to rebuild property and infrastructure exactly in the same manner and in the same locations that are prone to damage from floods and hurricanes. Experts agree that in the rush to develop coastal and flood-prone properties, adequate planning for flooding was not taken into account as there was the knowledge that FEMA would always insure these properties. Robert Hunter, an insurance administrator in the Ford and Carter administrations stated that, “FEMA. . .encourages unwise construction instead of discouraging it. . .We’ve created coastal bowling-pin communities; we set ‘em up and the weather takes ‘em down.”

For additional information see: Washington Post , The Hill , New York Times – 1 , New York Times – 2

CIA Commissioned Report Finds United States Ill Prepared for Climate Change Effects on National Security

On November 9, the National Research Council (NRC) released a report commissioned by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that analyzed the impacts that climate change will have on U.S. national security. The report found that climate change will place colossal strains on the U.S. military and intelligence agencies, and states, “Some of this [climate] change is already discernible. Many of these events will stress communities, societies, governments, and the globally integrated systems that support human well-being.” The study cautions that the United States is not prepared to assess and prepare for climate change-induced disasters. As an example, the report points to the Nile River watershed where climate-related conflict over water and farmland could occur as the total population of Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia reaches 300 million. In a finding similar to a recent American Security Project study (see November 5 issue), the NRC report suggests that underlying tensions will be exacerbated due to increased flood, famine, disease and population migration, and international agencies will struggle to respond. Lead author John Steinbruner, director of the University of Maryland Center for International and Security Studies, stated, “We know there will have to be major climatic adjustments – there’s no uncertainty about that – but we just don’t know the details. . .We do know they will be big.” The report recommends that a “whole-of-government approach to understanding adaptation and vulnerability to climate change. . .[is necessary] to inform choices about responses to climate change.”

For additional information see: New York Times , Politico , Study

IEA Calls for Rapid Deployment of Energy Efficiency to Avoid Locking in Warming

The International Energy Agency (IEA) states in its 2012 World Energy Outlook (WEA), published November 12, that, “No more than one-third of proven reserves of fossil fuels can be consumed prior to 2050 if the world is to achieve the 2 [degree Celsius] goal.” The two degree goal is the internationally recognized limit to average global temperature increase to prevent catastrophic climate change. The IEA report states that under the current path, all available emissions will be ‘locked-in’ by 2017. However, the report also indicates that there is a huge untapped potential to save energy and reduce emissions from more efficient energy use. Through the “rapid deployment” of energy-efficient technologies, the report suggests that the world could postpone the two degree lock-in until 2022. The extension could provide “time to secure a much-needed global climate agreement,” says IEA executive director Marie van der Hoeven. In addition, the estimated $11.8 trillion necessary investment in energy efficiency would be offset by lower fuel costs estimated to yield $17.5 trillion in savings. The efficiency improvements are possible by “taking actions to remove the barriers obstructing the implementation of energy efficiency measures that are economically viable.”

For additional information see: Bloomberg Businessweek , Brisbane Times , IEA , Sustainable Business

Extreme Climate Model Predictions More Accurate, Study Finds

A study published November 9 in the journal Science that compares climate modeling results with actual atmospheric humidity temperatures indicates that, thus far, the more extreme results have served as better predictors of atmospheric conditions. The study analyzed 10 years of atmospheric humidity data from NASA satellites and examined 24 of the most sophisticated climate simulations to see how much warmer the atmosphere would become, should atmospheric carbon dioxide levels double. The analysis was based on the accuracy of computer models in reproducing recorded cloud coverage in the tropics and the sub-tropics. The study found that models that best reproduced the cloud cover also projected higher global temperatures. Co-author John Fasullo, atmospheric scientist at National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), stated, “There is a striking relationship between how well climate models simulate relative humidity in key areas and how much warming they show in response to increasing carbon dioxide. Given how fundamental these processes are to clouds and the overall global climate, our findings indicate that warming is likely to be on the high side of current projections.”

For additional information see: Washington Post , New York Times , Study Abstract

DOE Investigating the Energy Potential of Methane Hydrates

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and industry partners are researching of what may become part of the energy mix in America’s future: methane hydrates. Methane hydrates, described as looking like ice but capable of burning like a candle, are found under the sea floor or under permafrost, forming when organic matter releases methane that later combines with water. A 2008 Minerals Management Service study estimated that methane hydrate resources in the northern Gulf of Mexico alone are 100 times greater than current U.S. natural gas reserves. With America’s goal of attaining national energy independence, the DOE is hoping to be prepared to fuel domestic demand by conducting preliminary research on methane hydrate extraction techniques. Researchers at the Ignik Sikumi well along the North Slope in Prudhoe Bay, Alaska injected carbon dioxide and nitrogen into the well and calculated the release of methane molecules over a 30-day trial. The extraction method sought to preserve the underground ice formations and protect the reservoir for future usage. Ray Boswell, methane hydrate technology manager at the National Energy Technology Laboratory, observed that, “From the lab data we had, it seemed like it was some strong evidence that it was not a lot of wholesale destruction of the solid hydrate.” However, Brendan Cummings of the Center for Biological Diversity is quick to point out that methane is a 20-times more potent greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Cummings cautions that, “Any exploration activities designed to extract methane hydrates run the risk of unintended consequences, of unleashing the monster.”

For additional information see: San Francisco Chronicle

Some Regions May Benefit from Increased Precipitation

In a study published November 11 in the journal Nature Climate Change, researchers find that extreme rains brought on by climate change are benefiting some regions of the world. The analysis, performed by Richard Taylor of the University College London and a dozen other scientists, found that more intense rainfall in certain areas of the world, such as East Africa, may help recharge groundwater aquifers. To many countries within these regions, groundwater is the most important source of local drinking water. The analysis was based on a 55-year record compiled in Tanzania that looked at the relationship between groundwater recharge and rainfall. It found that a disproportionately large share of groundwater recharge came from heavy rainstorms. Precipitation from lighter rains tends to evaporate once the storm has passed, while heavier rains are more able to saturate the ground. Intense rainfalls are one of the most confident predictions being made about the effects of climate change, and the benefit it provides for drinking water could help offset some of the more negative predicted effects. Although specific studies in other regions of the world have not been conducted, researchers suggest that the same pattern could be true in places such as the American Southwest.

For additional information see: New York Times – 1 , Study , New York Times – 2

Atmospheric Carbon Buildup Could Cause Buildup of Space Junk

In a study published November 11 in the journal Nature Geoscience, a team of researchers from the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory conclude that anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will have implications for the outer layer of the Earth’s atmosphere. Situated 50 miles above the Earth, the thermosphere is the region of Earth’s atmosphere where satellites and more than 22,000 pieces of space debris orbit the planet. Unlike on the Earth’s surface, CO2 accumulation in the thermosphere causes cooling and thus contraction of the layer. Such conditions reduce the amount of drag experienced by orbiting objects, enabling them to accumulate and remain in the atmosphere for longer periods of time. Lead author John Emmert of the Space Science Division warns that, “Even tiny bits of debris, such as paint chips, can damage satellites and manned spacecraft when they’re traveling in low-Earth orbit at about 21,600 miles per hour (mph). An aluminum sphere half an inch in diameter has the potential to do as much damage upon collision as a 400-pound safe traveling at 60 mph. Larger items such as defunct satellites can pulverize the objects they hit in space, generating ever more pieces of dangerous floating trash.” Collision occurrences are expected to increase with cooling thermosphere temperatures, threatening satellites that provide high demand services, such as cell phone communication and GPS tracking.

For additional information see: Los Angeles Times , Agence France-Presse , Study

Monday, November 19: Expectations for the International Climate Change Negotiations in Doha

The US Climate Action Network (USCAN) and ten groups are hosting a briefing to provide an overview of the latest negotiations under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and expectations for this year’s Conference of the Parties (COP 18) in Doha, Qatar. Presenters will provide perspectives from the private sector, the international development community, and the environmental community. Presenters include: Keya Chatterjee, director of International Climate Policy at World Wildlife Foundation; Lisa Jacobson, president of the Business Council for Sustainable Energy; Brandon Wu, senior policy analyst at ActionAid USA; and Jake Schmidt, international climate policy director at the Natural Resources Defense Fund. The briefing will be held on Monday, November 19 from 1:00-2:00 p.m. in Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 419. RSVP required.

Thursday, December 6: Solutions to the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ – How Putting a Price on Carbon Can Play a Role

The Quebec Government Office Washington, the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), the Association for Canadian Studies in the United States (ACSUS), and Raoul Dandurand Chair, are hosting a briefing discussing the viability of carbon market mechanisms. The presenters will update about activities in leading states and provinces throughout North America – such as California and Quebec, which are set to link their carbon markets by 2013 – and how their experience can help guide the national debate about pricing carbon emissions. Panelists include: Adele Morris, policy director of the Climate and Energy Economics Projects at the Brookings Institution; Richard Caperton, director of Clean Energy Investment at the Center for American Progress; Manik Roy, vice president for Strategic Outreach at the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions; and William Burns, associate director of the Energy Policy and Climate Program at Johns Hopkins University. The event will be held Thursday, December 6 from 5:00-6:30 p.m. in the Rome Building, #806, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, 1619 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036. Please RSVP to [email protected].