Climate Change News - November 11, 2013

White House to Open New Public Comment on Social Cost of Carbon

On November 4, the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB) announced it will seek new public comments on the “social cost of carbon” (SCC), a metric that estimates monetary damages associated with increases of annual carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The Administration initially calculated the cost in 2010 at $23.80 per ton, and raised it in May 2013 after the underlying climate economic models were changed to include damages from rising seas and other natural changes. This upward revision has drawn fire from business groups, including the American Petroleum Institute and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which asked the White House in September to drop the SCC. White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (OIRA) Director Shelanski revealed the latest “minor technical corrections” to the SCC in a blog post on November 1, updating the estimated value of the SCC in 2015 to $37 per metric ton of CO2, $1 lower than the $38 per metric ton estimate released in May. “We will continue to work to refine these estimates to ensure that agencies are appropriately measuring the social cost of carbon emissions as they evaluate the costs and benefits of rules,” concluded Shelanski. Details on the public comment period will be released soon in the Federal Register.

For additional information see: The Hill , Bloomberg , Office of Management and Budget , Technical Update of SCC

EPA Releases Climate Adaptation Plan

On November 1, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released its draft Climate Adaptation Implementation Plans for public comment. The release coincides with President Obama’s Executive Order calling for nationwide action to increase resilience in the face of climate change. The EPA’s plans consist of seven programs and 10 regional plans that identify high risk areas and offer detailed strategies of how the EPA will help communities adapt to climate change. The draft Implementation Plans also calls for the EPA to take climate adaptation into account in its programs, rules, policies and operations, to keep the agency’s work effective in future climate conditions. EPA developed the plans in accordance with the federal Interagency Climate Change Adaptation Task Force’s 2009 requirement, which required every federal agency to develop strategies to increase climate change resiliency throughout the United States. “To meet our mission of protecting public health and the environment, EPA must help communities adapt to a changing climate,” commented EPA Administrator Gina McCarthy. “These Implementation Plans offer a roadmap for agency work to meet that responsibility, while carrying out President Obama’s goal of preparing the country for climate-related challenges.” The draft Climate Change Adaptation Implementation Plans will be open for public comment until January 3, 2014.

For additional information see: EPA Press Release , EPA

Poll Finds Tea Party Republicans Have the Largest Percentage of Climate Change Denial

According to a poll released November 1 by the Pew Research Center, 25 percent of tea party Republicans agree that global warming is occurring. They are currently the largest group of climate deniers in the United States. Conversely, 67 percent of Americans and 61 percent of non-tea party Republicans agree that there is evidence that the earth is warming. The poll, conducted among 1,504 adults in the United States, has been taking the national pulse on climate change yearly since 2006. While the majority of Americans believe global warming is occurring, only 44 percent believe human activity is the predominant cause of global warming. From 2006 to today, the amount of Americans who say there is solid evidence the earth is warming have declined, from 77 percent to 67 percent. Americans may disagree on the causes of global warming, but among those who agree that temperatures are rising, 74 percent agree that it is possible to mitigate the effects of rising temperatures.

For additional information see: The Washington Post , Pew Research Center

California Needs to Take Action to Meet 2050 Emissions Reduction Goals

On November 4, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory released a report with new models that show California is on target to meet 2020 and 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction goals, until an increase in population by mid-century reverses its steady decline in emissions and puts its 2050 goal out of reach. California has had the most ambitious GHG reduction plan in the nation, with vehicle regulations on GHG since 2004, an operational carbon cap-and-trade system, and an executive order outlining GHG emissions reduction targets. However, the new study reveals that further policies will be necessary to meet its 2050 GHG reduction target of 80 percent below 1990 levels. To meet its final target, California can emit 85 megatons of CO2 annually. The modeled emissions scenarios show that California is instead on track to emit a range from 188 to 444 megatons of CO2 per year by 2050. The researchers examined the effect of California’s state and regional policies on GHG emissions, using three models which represented all GHG-emitting sectors in the state, including pre-existing laws and uncommitted policies. Dave Clegern, spokesman for the California Air Resources Board stated, “we are aware that there is going to have to be more progress . . . But it is achievable.”

For additional information see: EPA GHG Reporting Program , The Merced Sun Star , The LA Times , Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Israeli Government Report Finds 5 Million Israelis at Risk from Global Warming

A report released November 5 by the Israeli Climate Change Information Center details the risks to Israel from climate change. According to the report, 2.5 million Israelis are in areas at risk for sea level rise in the Mediterranean, with another 2.8 million individuals living in areas prone to flooding from streams and rivers. Along with risks of flooding, the report details the effects of rising temperature on heat strokes, water shortages, and increased vector-borne diseases. The report recommends several measures, including flood barriers, updated water policies, improved storm reporting, and green building. In response to the report, Environmental Protection Minister Amir Peretz has requested the creation of a new committee with membership from 16 government ministries to address these challenges, including health, defense, construction and housing. According to the report, the costs of inaction are high: for every $1 spent in climate adaptation, the country would save $8 in future costs. Minister Peretz asserted, "For a long time now, climate change has not been merely a theoretical threat lying beyond the horizon. It is much closer to home and much more real . . . it is a phenomenon caused by the actions of human beings. Therefore, it is incumbent upon us to address the issue in a serious and comprehensive manner, so that we can do our part to mitigate the damages." The report was compiled at the behest of the Environmental Protection Ministry by the Knowledge Center For Climate Change, in collaboration with researchers from the University of Haifa, Tel Aviv University, the Techninion and the Shmeul Neaman Institute for Policy Research.

For additional information see: The Jerusalem Post , Israel Ministry of Environmental Protection

UN Says in 2012 Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions Hit Record High

On November 6, the United Nations (UN) World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released its annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin, revealing that the world’s atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases reached a record high in 2012. The WMO report also shows that the annual rate at which carbon dioxide (CO2) accumulated in the atmosphere from 2011 to 2012 was faster than its annual rates of accumulation over the last decade. Radiative forcing, the warming impact of climate change agents such as CO2 and methane on the atmosphere, increased by 32 percent between 1996 and 2012. Emissions of CO2, predominantly from human burning of fossil fuels, accounted for 80 percent of the increase in radiative forcing.

For additional information see: The Hill , Climate Central , Report

UNEP Report Calls For Global Actions to Close Emission Gap

On November 5, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) issued its Emissions Gap Report of 2013, warning that the window to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius will “swiftly diminish” unless the global community takes immediate action to bridge the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions gap. The report, compiled by 44 scientific groups in 17 countries, identifies the gap between government pledges and the estimated reductions targets needed to avoid potentially devastating climate change. Even if countries fulfill their pledges, the world will still fall eight to 12 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (GtCO2e) short of limiting annual emissions to 44 GtCO2e by 2020, which represents the best chance to limit warming to 2 degrees C. The specified targets to limit warming (44 GtCO2e by 2020, 40 GtCO2e by 2025, 35 GtCO2e by 2030 and 22 GtCO2e annually by 2050) were based on action scenarios beginning in 2010, and will become more expensive and difficult to attain in the future. Under a business-as-usual scenario without climate pledges, annual global emissions would rise to 59 GtCO23 by 2020. The report adds that the 2020 goal is still achievable, and outlines multiple strategies which could help, including tightening and expanding the scope of existing pledges.

For additional information see: UNEP Report , UNEP Press Release , Guardian , Bloomberg , IGSD Press Release

World Bank Announces Plan to Reduce Emissions 10 Percent by 2017

On October 29, the World Bank outlined new emissions reduction goals in its World Bank Sustainability Review 2013. The goal is to reduce emissions at World Bank facilities by 10 percent relative to 2010 levels by 2017. Under the auspices of the EPA’s Climate Leaders Program, a program aimed at establishing corporate leaders in the field of sustainable business practices, the World Bank has already successfully cut emissions at its Washington, DC facilities by 7 percent. Other green goals already met by the World Bank include cutting paper use 49 percent since 2007, a 2 percent reduction in electricity since 2012, and a water use per toilet flush decrease in DC headquarters of 50 percent.

For additional information see: Environmental Leader , World Bank , EPA Climate Leaders

Cutting Short-Lived Climate Pollutants Critical for Protecting Earth’s Snow and Ice-Covered Regions

On November 3, the World Bank and the International Climate Cryosphere Initiative released a report showing that cutting short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) can significantly reduce warming in vulnerable ice and snow-covered areas of the world such as the Arctic and Himalayas, known as the cryosphere, while saving millions of lives and protecting ecosystems. The report calculates the impacts of climate change in cryosphere regions, including the Arctic, Himalayas, Andes and East Africa, and describes which actions – in addition to cuts in carbon dioxide emissions – can slow these changes. Cryosphere regions are warming at more than twice the global average rate, which increases melting and sea-level rise, and increases the risk of self-amplifying feedbacks that could trigger abrupt and catastrophic climate change. According to the report, prepared by 44 scientific groups from around the world, cutting SLPCs, which include black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone, and HFC refrigerants, would provide near-term benefits in every glaciated region of the world. “Fast cuts in CO2 emissions are necessary to stabilize long-term temperatures, but in the near term, we can cut the rate of climate change in half by cutting black carbon, methane, tropospheric ozone, and HFC refrigerants. Reducing these climate pollutants is the only way to protect the world’s vulnerable people and places in the near term,” said Durwood Zaelke, President of the Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development. “We have the technologies and the existing laws in most cases to cut the short-lived pollutants today. This includes phasing down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol and using other complementary initiatives such as the international Climate and Clean Air Coalition to Reduce Short-Lived Climate Pollutants, the only global effort focusing on these pollutants.”

For additional information see: World Bank , Bloomberg , Motherboard , IGSD Press Release , International Cryosphere Climate Initiative , Report

Developing Nations Emit More Greenhouse Gas than Developed Nations This Decade

A new study of global emission trends, released October 31, found that developing countries will soon be responsible for the greatest world share of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The study predicted that developing countries will account for 51 percent of world cumulative CO2 emissions by 2020, marginally surpassing emissions from developed nations. Developing countries accounted for 48 percent of cumulative emissions from 1850 to 2010. November 11, nearly 200 governments will meet in Warsaw, Poland to discuss a global deal for fighting climate change to be agreed on by 2015, and put into action starting 2020. The study notes that discussions at UN climate negotiations tend to focus on the biggest climate change contributors – putting developing nations at the focus of the talks, along with the long-standing large CO2 emitters United States, the European Union, and Russia. Separately, the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency noted a remarkable slowdown in worldwide CO2 emissions despite substantial economic growth. They remarked, "This development signals a shift towards less fossil-fuel-intensive activities, more use of renewable energy and increased energy saving.” Research was conducted by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, research group Ecofys and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre.

For additional information see: Guardian , Study

Study Finds Parts of Pacific Ocean Warming at Fastest Rate in 10,000 Years

On October 31, a new study published in the journal Science revealed that the mid-deep waters of the Pacific Ocean have been warming 15 times faster over past 60 years than at any other time over the past 10,000 years, which may help explain the recent slowdown in the rate of rising atmospheric temperature. The research showed that in the last 10,000 years the Pacific mid-depths had generally been cooling, with a slow drop of 4 degrees F from 7,000 years ago to the year 1600. After 1600, temperatures began to incline upwards, up until the last 60 years, when temperatures rose 0.32 degrees F, an increase of 15 times prior rates of change. “This places the recent warming of Pacific intermediate waters in temporal context. The trend has now reversed in a big way and the deep ocean is warming,” explained study co-author Braddock Linsley from Columbia University. Researchers discovered these changing trends by analyzing chemical components of the fossil shells of an ancient organism, Hyalinea balthica, which had calcified in the marine sediment around Indonesia. They then reconstructed 10,000 years of heat content change in the Ocean’s middle depths – between 450 and 1,000 meters – throughout the western Pacific, where H. balthica lived. Critiques of the study pointed out its problematic aspects, arguing sediments offer low-accuracy representations of recent temperature changes, and pointing out that the study is likely underestimating present-day warming. Yair Rosenthal, climate scientist at Rutgers University and lead author of the study said, "We may have underestimated the efficiency of the oceans as a storehouse for heat and energy. It may buy us some time . . . But it's not going to stop climate change."

For additional information see: Science , Rutgers Press Release , Columbia University Press Release , The Washington Post

Study Finds Carbon Taxes and Emissions Trading Are Most Cost-Effective Way to Reduce CO2

On November 4, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) released a new report, which found that taxes and trading systems cost less overall than other policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, such as subsidies, feed-in-tariffs, and other regulatory instruments. The study, titled “Effective Carbon Prices,” examined climate change policies in 15 countries in the most emission-intensive sectors, including electricity generation, road transport, pulp and paper and cement manufacturing, and household energy use. It found that in the electricity sector, trading systems cost 10 Euros to abate a ton of CO2, in comparison to 176 Euros for capital subsidies and 169 Euros for feed-in-tariffs. Releasing the report, OECD Secretary-General Angel Gurria said, “Countries are pricing carbon in a multitude of ways, not always the most effective.” Despite entailing substantially higher costs, subsidies and feed-in-tariffs are much more commonly used. The OECD report is based on an Australian report titled “Carbon Emission Policies in Key Economies,” published in 2011.

For additional information see: Live OECD Report , OECD Press Release , Guardian

November 13: Stanford Professor Jon Krosnick to Unveil New Climate Change Polling Data

The Bicameral Task Force on Climate Change will host Stanford Professor Jon Krosnick to discuss Americans' opinions on climate change. Professor Krosnick will present new data on the opinions of people living in nearly all U.S. states on key questions related to the existence, causes, and threat of climate change, whether actions should be taken to address it, and opinions about specific policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Wednesday 9 AM, in 2218 Rayburn House Office Building

November 20: Energy Efficiency, a Win-Win

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) invites you to a briefing hosted in coordination with the House Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Caucus on the best energy source of all: energy efficiency. Not only does energy efficiency save money and reduce emissions, it also promotes innovation and creates jobs in a large value chain that spans the country, making our economy stronger and more competitive.

November 20: Alliance to Save Energy's Great Energy Efficiency Day

Join the Alliance to Save Energy for an afternoon of great speakers lined up to discuss doubling U.S. energy productivity by 2030 through efforts at the local, state, and federal levels.