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May 28, 2018
Arid conditions and reduced mountain snowpack have stoked fears that the Rio Grande may not be able to supply enough water for New Mexico's agricultural sector. Photo courtesy of Scott Ehardt via wikimedia.org.
On May 18, the National Park Service (NPS) released an uncensored version of a report on climate change risks facing its sites. An earlier draft of the report obtained by the press had removed any mention of anthropogenic climate change, raising fears that the threats of sea level rise and extreme weather would be scrubbed from the final version. The report is meant to assist NPS's 118 coastal parks in planning for future climate impacts. The study's lead scientist, Maria Caffrey, said the release of the full report was worth fighting for to "ensure that scientific integrity of other scientists won’t be challenged so easily in the future." Caffrey said that NPS officials had threatened to release the report without her name on it or to withhold the report altogether if she did not acquiesce to the changes. Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke claimed during a House subcommittee hearing that he was unaware of the report being censored. The agency has since undertaken an internal review of the action.
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Reveal News
Officials with the U.S. Chemical Safety and Hazard Investigation Board have issued findings and recommendations to the Arkema chemical company, government officials, and chemical industry members. Arkema's facility in Crosby, Texas, was flooded by six feet of water during Hurricane Harvey. The flooding took out the backup generators and cooling system, resulting in multiple explosions that exposed the community to hazardous chemicals. The investigation found that the facility had been at risk prior to the hurricane, but that Arkema appeared to be "unware." The board, an independent federal agency responsible for investigating industrial chemical accidents, recommended that the nonprofit Center for Chemical Process Safety work with companies to develop guidance on determining the risks posed to chemical facilities by extreme weather events. Board chair Vanessa Allen Sutherland said, "Given that experts predict that extreme weather events are likely to increase in number and severity, the chemical industry must be prepared for the worst-case scenarios. We cannot stop the storms, but by working together we can mitigate the damage and avoid future catastrophic events."
Houston Chronicle
Officials in Norfolk, Virginia, are trying out creative solutions to help the city adapt to the frequent flooding and creeping sea level rise plaguing the city. Norfolk houses the largest naval base in the country, but is also experiencing sea level rise at a rate twice the global average. The city hopes to combine climate adaptation with economic development in order to assist impoverished and vulnerable neighborhoods. That includes Tidewater Gardens, where regular flooding hampers the quality of life of its residents. Proposals to leave the Tidewater site as open space and move people elsewhere have raised concerns that some residents may not be able to afford the neighborhoods they would have to relocate to. Meanwhile, the city's decision to designate the zones most vulnerable to flooding as ineligible for flood protection has residents worried that property values in those areas could crater. Norfolk overhauled its zoning codes in January 2018, featuring incentives to direct new development away from the coast and flood-prone areas. Norfolk's planning director, George Homewood, said, "Let's focus on the areas that aren't at risk, and how we can develop and improve and densify those areas."
InsideClimate News
Houston is attempting to rebuild following Hurricane Harvey without repeating the planning mistakes that contributed to the storm's destructiveness. Northwest Houston is rebuilding according to new, stricter standards that account for projections of additional extreme weather events in the coming decades. The 2018 hurricane season, scheduled to start June 1, is already expected to be worse than last year's. City officials are also requesting additional flexibility in how billions of dollars in federal emergency funds can be used to address frequently flooded neighborhoods. The nation's fourth-largest city has never had zoning regulations and only added flood-protection standards about 20 years ago, leading to some neighborhoods springing up in flood-prone areas. Part of the problem was a rush to provide housing for Houston's booming population, even if it meant building in flood plains. Houston Mayor Sylvester Turner called Harvey "a wake-up call" and has worked to implement building regulations that consider the latest weather projections. Turner noted, "We have had three 500-year storms in the last three years."
Washington Post
Climate change is clouding the long-term outlook of the Rio Grande. Arid conditions and the second-lowest mountain snowpack on record are threatening to bring water shortages to regions that rely upon the river. Farmers in New Mexico may be without irrigation water by the end of July – three months earlier than normal. Some are counting on the seasonal monsoon rains to meet their needs, but the storms can be highly unpredictable. The Rio Grande itself has long been a "feast or famine" river, with alternating wet and dry years. However, warmer temperatures due to climate change could make that year-to-year recovery more difficult. David Gutzler, a climate scientist with the University of New Mexico, said, “The effect of long-term warming is to make it harder to count on snowmelt runoff in wet times. And it makes the dry times much harder than they used to be.” The river's conservancy district was able to store water upstream during an exceptionally wet 2016-17 season, but farmers are wary that those types of reserves will be unavailable if 2019 is dry.
New York Times
America's avocado industry is already experiencing the effects of climate change. Avocados are particularly sensitive to temperature fluctuations, as the trees start to falter when temperatures drop below 28 degrees Fahrenheit or rise above 100 degrees. Cold weather can shorten the trees' pollination period, while water shortages, salt accumulation in the soil, and warm-weather loving pests can also lead to death. California farmer Chris Sayer says all of these hazards are "quite possible in the next few decades, as the climate shifts." During a February freeze, Sayer's trees shed their leaves, which then caused the exposed avocados to burn in the sun. A string of strange weather events has stressed California's crops, which produces two-thirds of the fruits and nuts in the United States. Jay Famiglietti, a senior water scientist at NASA, cautioned, "It’s a virtual certainty that California will get drier. I don’t think it’s a climate that’s conducive to orchard crops anymore.” Farmers who grow tree-based crops have to deal with the fact that it can take years for those trees to mature and pay off, which makes long-term planning in the face of an uncertain climate all the more challenging.
Grist
Experts have begun to argue that the concept of a "carbon budget," an estimate of how much carbon dioxide humanity can emit before triggering dangerous climate change consequences, may have sown some confusion within the policymaking process. The carbon budget concept was initially devised to provide governments with a goal to develop their policies around, with studies quantifying how much a nation could emit within certain boundaries. However, a budget's value can change depending on the types of models, assumptions, and methods that generated it. Scientists caution that these nuances can be overlooked or misunderstood by well-intentioned policymakers. The resulting confusion over which budget number to plan around could even muddy arguments and prevent or delay climate action. Glen Peters of the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research in Norway, said, "Instead of oversimplifying, the scientific community should seek to discuss and emphasize the persistent uncertainties [of carbon budgets]."
Scientific American
A new study appearing in the journal Nature asserts that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius could lead to $20 trillion in savings. The Paris Climate Agreement's goal is to cap warming at two degrees C over preindustrial levels within this century. However, prior research found that the national commitments under the agreement would still lead to an increase of three degrees by 2100. Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and achieve these goals will require substantial investments, but will also result in benefits; the researchers wanted to determine what the value of those investments might be. They used historical data to calculate the relationship between temperature fluctuation and gross domestic product (GDP), then estimated how projected temperature increases would affect a country's economy. The study found that if temperatures were contained within the 1.5 degree C target, it could save around three percent of global GDP ($30 trillion). Co-author Noah Diffenbaugh of Stanford University noted, "Low-latitude countries are highly likely to benefit from lower levels of warming because of the fact that they're highly likely to incur damages for higher levels of warming."
Los Angeles Times
Scientists have discovered that higher concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide could significantly lessen the nutritional value of rice. The study, appearing in the journal Science Advances, grew several varieties of rice in experimental plots. Some of the plots were enclosed and had their CO2 levels raised to a concentration of 580 parts per million, reflecting the projected atmospheric conditions after 2050 if no action is taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions or deforestation. The rice plots otherwise received the same levels of sunlight, water, and other inputs. The rice grown in higher CO2 concentrations saw severe declines in protein, zinc, iron, and B vitamins per grain. B9 vitamins are especially important to fetus development and a deficiency can result in birth defects. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization, rice, corn, and wheat provide 60 percent of the global population's food supply. Professor Kristie Ebi of the University of Washington said, "When you look at a country like Bangladesh, three out of every four calories comes from rice. Obviously, that means any decline in nutritional value is very significant."
NPR
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