Climate Change News - March 4, 2013

Inspector General Says EPA Needs Better Data about Methane Emissions from Oil and Gas Sector

On February 20, U.S. Inspector General for the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Arthur Elkins released a report expressing concern that the EPA does not have enough information about methane emissions from the oil and gas sector. In the report, Elkins stated, “With limited data, human health risks are uncertain, states may design incorrect or ineffective emission control strategies, and EPA’s decisions about regulating industry may be misinformed.” Measuring methane emissions is of particular importance for the EPA, which released the first air pollution emissions standards for natural gas well sites in 2012. Although burning natural gas produces fewer carbon emissions than other fossil fuels, the positive effects could be negated depending on the magnitude of methane leakage during the extraction and transportation process. According to the report, the EPA has minimal data about methane emissions, and many of the existing measurements are of “questionable quality.” It is currently difficult for the EPA to measure emissions leakage, as it is not easy for researchers to gain access to drilling sites, and, when access is available, it can be dangerous and difficult to take measurements. The EPA is working on ways to monitor emissions remotely, but nothing has been fully developed yet.

For additional information see: San Francisco Chronicle , Upstream , Report

Draft Supplementary EIS Concludes that Keystone XL Pipeline Has Little Impact on Climate Change

A draft supplementary environmental impact statement (EIS) released by the U.S. Department of State on March 1, rules that the construction of the Keystone XL pipeline will have little impact on climate change. The report concludes that Canada’s tar sands will be developed even if the pipeline permit is denied, and therefore the project will not substantially increase greenhouse gas emissions. The draft supplementary EIS will be open for public comment for 45 days after it is published in the Federal Register.

For additional information see: Washington Post , Draft EIS

United States Presents Plan for Carbon Emissions from Aviation

The United States proposed an international plan requiring airlines to pay for carbon emissions when flying over national airspaces. However, the plan would not price carbon emissions over international waters. The U.S. proposal, estimated to cover about 25 percent of carbon emissions from aviation, will be presented at a high-level International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) working group meeting March 25-27. ICAO is responsible for finding an international alternative to the controversial European Union (EU) emissions trading scheme (ETS) for aviation that would require all planes landing and taking off from EU airports to pay for all of the carbon used for their flight. The EU voted to postpone implementation of the EU ETS for aviation in November 2012 (see November 19, 2012 issue).

For additional information see: Reuters , Air Transport World , Bloomberg BNA

Obama Administration Engaging Local Communities on Climate Change

Federal agencies are working with state and local communities to reduce vulnerability to and improve preparedness for extreme weather. The Housing and Urban Development, Transportation, and Agriculture Departments are working with local governments to plan for infrastructure resilience to severe storms. New sea-level rise software by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration allows community officials to see how future ocean levels would impact their area, and how to plan structures and roads accordingly. The State Department has reached out to Brian Holland, director of climate programs at ICLEI-Local Governments for Sustainability USA, to see what part it can play to help local governments prepare. “This seems to me [to be] the beginning of a big-tent, grassroots climate strategy, which no administration has attempted in the U.S. before,” said consultant Paul Bledsoe, a former senior energy and climate policy advisor for President Clinton. He continued, “Climate strategies in the past have been declared from on high. That hasn’t been terrifically effective in mobilizing political support. But involving people in their communities, with state and local officials, who are concerned about impacts in terms of infrastructure and emergency services, could be more effective.” At the federal level, the Environmental Protection Agency is expected to finalize New Source Performance Standards for carbon emissions from new power plants by late spring.

For additional information see: National Journal

Bipartisan Group of Former Lawmakers and Government Officials Call for Climate Action

On February 25, a bipartisan group of U.S. foreign policy and military officials called for action on climate change. In an open letter penned by the Partnership for a Secure America – a group formed by former Rep. Lee Hamilton (D-IN) and former Sen. Warren Rudman (R-NH) – signatories urged that steps must be taken to address the national security threat posed by global warming in poorer nations. “Climate change impacts abroad could spur mass migrations, influence civil conflict and ultimately lead to a more unpredictable world,” the letter states. “Protecting U.S. interests under these conditions would progressively exhaust American military, diplomatic and development resources as we struggle to meet growing demands for emergency international engagement.” Letter signatories include: President George W. Bush’s Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage, President Clinton’s Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Carol Browner, former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, retired Vice Admiral Dennis V. McGinn, former Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and 15 other former Members of Congress.

For additional information see: Politico , Letter

PNC Shareholders Push for Climate Change Resolution

A group of PNC Bank investors introduced a shareholder resolution noting their concerns about PNC’s investments in projects that emit greenhouse gases (GHG). The resolution requests that climate change and GHG emissions factor into PNC’s loan-making process. The shareholders also noted that PNC has failed to act on a 2011 commitment to halt loans to mountaintop removal coal mining projects. The resolution states, “PNC has ignored investors' requests to provide information detailing its [mountaintop removal] policy implementation or the lending impacts of this policy.” Although the SEC does not allow investors to interfere in the day-to-day operations of corporations, the commission did issue guidance in 2010 suggesting that corporations disclose their climate-related risk. The resolution will be brought to a vote at PNC’s annual meeting at the end of April, marking the first time that such a resolution has been considered at a major U.S. financial institution.

For additional information see: Los Angeles Times

Climate Change, Population Growth Threaten Western Reservoirs

A report released February 24 by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) finds that some of the largest reservoirs in the Western United States are in risk of drying up over the next few decades as temperatures rise. The study, authored by researchers at Colorado State University, Princeton University, and the USFS Research Station, outlines the vulnerability of water supply to climate change. The authors combined climate science and socio-economic projections to look at the possibility of water shortages as population increases. “We were surprised to find that climate change is likely to have a much greater effect on future water demands than population growth,” said co-author Tom Brown, research economist at the USFS. He added, “The combined effects of climate change on water supply and demand could lead to serious water shortages in some regions.” Regions that will be hardest hit include most of the Southwest, parts of California and areas of the Great Plains.

For additional information see: Summit County Voice , Study

Rising Temperatures Could Release Methane from Melting Siberian Permafrost

A study published February 21 in the journal Science concludes that a 1.5 degree Celsius temperature rise would be enough to begin a major release of methane from melting Siberian permafrost. Lead author Anton Vaks, postdoctoral research fellow at Oxford University, said, “Although it wasn't the main focus of our research, our work also suggests that in a world 1.5 [degree Celsius] warmer – warm enough to melt the coldest permafrost – adjoining regions would see significant changes. Mongolia's Gobi Desert [could] become much wetter than it is today and this extremely arid area could come to resemble the present-day Asian steppes.” The researchers studied growth patterns of stalagmites and stalactites to analyze the possible effects of temperature changes on the present and future. Over thousands of years, stalagmites and stalactites formed in Siberian caves under the permafrost from dripping melt water. The researchers found stalactites in a northern cave on the boundary of the permafrost that showed growth during a period 400,000 years ago at temperatures of 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times, which indicates the permafrost could begin to thaw again at similar temperatures. Permafrost covers 24 percent of land surface in the northern hemisphere, and scientists are concerned that initial melting could begin a chain reaction, releasing of billion of tonnes of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere.

For additional information see: Guardian , New Scientist , Study Abstract

End of Last Ice Age Corresponds with Sharp Increase in Atmospheric Carbon

New research published March 1 in the journal Science found that the end of the last ice age, which occurred about 20,000 years ago, corresponded with a sharp increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Atmospheric carbon concentrations were collected using Antarctic ice cores, which trap bubbles of carbon dioxide that are tested to ascertain levels of that gas throughout history. Previous research shows a gap of 800 years between temperature rise at the end of the ice age and increased carbon dioxide, which climate skeptics have used to argue that carbon dioxide emissions do not cause global warming. Using new scientific techniques, a research team led by Dr. Francis Parrenin of the University of Grenoble was able to get a more precise reading on the age of the trapped gas relative to the ice core. The study shows that the time lag might be closer to 200 years or even less, proving that carbon dioxide is more closely correlated with warming temperatures than previously thought. Additionally, Jeremy Shakun of Harvard University released a study last year showing that temperature increases in the Antarctic were not representative of global trends, and that increases in carbon dioxide at the end of the last ice age preceded increases in temperature elsewhere.

For additional information see: New York Times , Study Abstract

Hotter, Wetter, Climate-Related Conditions Reduce Human Work Capacity

On February 24, a study published in the journal Nature Climate Change by researchers at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that laborers will need to take twice as many breaks in 2050 as they do now because of climate-related warming. Using industry and military guides for outdoor safety standards, the researchers estimated that workers today need to rest for approximately 10 percent of their labor time during peak heat hours. Based on the likely warming effects of climate change, that amount of rest time could increase to 20 percent by 2050. If a high emissions scenario occurs, the global temperature could increase by as much as 6.2 degrees Celsius, in which case, work productivity may be as low as 39 percent during peak heat hours. Lead author John Dunne, head of the Biochemistry, Ecosystems and Climate Group at NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, explained, “This effort changes the scope of the climate-change debate by putting the direct human impact in practical terms. It relates to anyone working without the benefit of air conditioning and would be a minimum estimate of heat stress for anyone working in an elevated heat environment, such as a kitchen or furnace.”

For additional information see: NOAA Press Release , Reuters , Bloomberg , Study

Study: Climate Change Causes Large-Scale Wave-Like Weather Disruptions

New research published March 1 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences concludes that extreme weather events can be tied to atmospheric wave patterns. The study finds that climate change impacts airflow patterns in the northern hemisphere leading to extreme weather conditions. Airflow travels in waves around the planet and is influenced by the difference of temperature between oceans and land. “When they swing up, these waves suck warm air from the tropics to Europe, Russia, or the U.S.,” said lead author Vladimir Petoukhov, professor at Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. “And when they swing down, they do the same thing with cold air from the Arctic.” He continued, “What we found is that during several recent extreme weather events, these waves almost freeze in their tracks for weeks. So instead of bringing in cool air after having brought warm air in, the heat just stays. In fact we observe a strong amplification of the usually weak, slow-moving component of these waves." In addition, changes in the Jet Stream, due to rising temperatures, have trapped the energy of slow-moving waves, prolonging their influence on weather patterns. “These two factors are crucial for the mechanism we detected,” stated Petoukhov. “They result in an unnatural pattern of the mid-latitude airflow, so that for extended periods the slow waves get trapped.”

For additional information see: Reuters , Agence France-Presse , The Daily Climate , Study Abstract