Climate Change News - June 10, 2013

Presidents Obama and Xi Jinping Agree to Phase Down HFCs under Montreal Protocol

U.S. President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed during their first-ever summit June 7-8 in Rancho Mirage, California to work together to phase down hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) under the Montreal Protocol. With the announcement, China joins nearly 100 other countries that have agreed to use alternatives to the potent greenhouse gases. “This will provide the single biggest, fastest, and most secure piece of climate protection available to the world through 2020, delivering the equivalent of 100 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050, and avoiding 0.5 degrees Celsius in warming by 2100, a significant part of what we need to stay below the two degrees Celsius redline,” said Durwood Zaelke, president of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. On June 5, the U.S. Congressional Bicameral Task Force on Climate Change sent a letter to Obama urging him to address climate change with President Xi during the California summit, and specifically to phase down HFCs under the Montreal Protocol. The letter was signed by task force Co-Chairs Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) and Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD). “Presidential leadership from Obama and Xi on HFCs will help set the table for further climate success with other short-lived climate pollutants and ultimately with the UN climate agreement planned for 2015,” continued Zaelke. The agreement builds on an April announcement of cooperation on climate change from the U.S. State Department (see April 22 issue).

For additional information see: Washington Post , New York Times , White House Press Release , Letter to the President , BusinessGreen

Federal Agencies Increase the Social Cost of Carbon

A new report released May 31 by the Interagency Working Group on Social Cost of Carbon has revised the estimated social cost of carbon dioxide (CO2) used by the U.S. government in economic analyses to $36 per ton in 2013, up from previous federal estimates of $22 per ton. This is part of a scheduled 2013 update to an original 2010 government report that put a social price on CO2 emissions. The costs were revised higher due to new climate models, which predict that climate change will cause greater damage from sea level rise and greater agriculture losses than earlier models had shown. Ari Isaacman Astles, assistant press secretary for the Office of Management and Budget, explains, “These updated values are well within the range of mainstream estimates. Indeed, similar estimates are used by other governments, international institutions, and major corporations.”

For additional information see: Bloomberg BNA , Washington Post , Report

USDA Offers New Support for Emissions Reductions and Adaptation Efforts in Agriculture Sector

On June 3, Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack renewed an agreement with U.S. dairy producers to accelerate the adoption of waste-to-energy projects and energy efficiency improvements on dairy farms. The agreement will support research to help utilize products previously considered to be waste, and assist the dairy industry in achieving its goal of reducing greenhouse gas emissions 25 percent by 2020. Since 2009, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Natural Resources Conservation Service has provided $257 million in funding to help more than 6,000 dairy farmers plan and implement more sustainable practices.

For additional information see: High Plains Journal , The Hill , USDA Press Release

U.S. Forest Service: Climate Change Causing Longer Fire Seasons

Thomas Tidwell, chief of the United States Forest Service, addressed the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources on June 4, stating that the average U.S. wildfire season lasts two months longer and fires burn twice as much land as compared to 40 years ago. Tidwell ascribed this to hotter and drier conditions related to climate change. He explained, “Ten years ago in New Mexico outside Los Alamos we had a fire get started. Over seven days, it burned 40,000 acres. In 2011, we had another fire, Las Conchas. It also burned 40,000 acres. It did it in 12 hours.” Longer wildfire seasons are a substantial economic challenge for the Forest Service, which is already facing budget constraints.

For additional information see: The Guardian

UN Working on Standardized Inventory of Black Carbon

In May, the United Nations (UN) Economic Commission for Europe Task Force on Emission Inventories and Projections (TFEIP) agreed upon black carbon emission inventory guidelines at a panel in Istanbul, Turkey. These voluntary guidelines called for nations to measure black carbon emissions from various sectors, including transportation and energy. The annual reports will help countries benchmark and compare emissions of the important climate and air pollutant. Black carbon was recently determined to be the second most important climate pollutant after carbon dioxide (see January 21 issue). Chris Dore, chair of the UN TFEIP, stated, “The increased emphasis on complete reporting across the countries [. . .] is clearly an important step forward.”

For additional information see: Science

Aviation Industry Calls for International Carbon Trading System

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) passed a resolution on June 3 urging national governments to develop an internationally uniform agreement that can reduce carbon (CO2) emissions from aviation. This resolution, passed at IATA’s annual meeting, comes in advance of a September meeting of the International Civil Aviation Association (ICAO), where governments and airlines could negotiate an international aviation CO2 reduction plan. According to Tony Tyler, director general of IATA, "Airlines are committed to working with governments to build a solid platform for the future sustainable development of aviation. They have come together to recommend to governments the adoption of a single market-based mechanism for aviation and provide suggestions on how it might be applied to individual carriers.” However, some environmental groups suggested that IATA’s resolution does not go far enough in calling for emissions reductions. Bill Hemmings, aviation manager at Transport and Environment, explained, “The IATA resolution represents a welcome departure from their historical position that better air traffic control, better planes and biofuels alone can solve the problem. However, it kicks the ball in the long grass, until after 2020, and sets out a string of unworkable conditions. It rules out the EU emissions trading scheme as a stepping stone, [and rules out] the raising of revenues and impacts on traffic volume, which are inherent to any market-based measure. Finally it relies solely on out-of-sector offsets rather than real emissions reductions within aviation.”

For additional information see: The Guardian , IATA Resolution

Developed Nations Contribute Nearly $40 Billion to UN Climate Finance Goal

A new report finds that developed nations have exceeded a United Nations goal to finance $30 billion worth of climate mitigation and adaptation projects in developing countries. The fundraising goal, known as Fast Start Finance, was agreed to at the 2009 Copenhagen Accord and the 2010 Cancun Agreements and was set to go through 2012. By the end of 2012, approximately $38.9 billion had been contributed, including $3 billion from private investments. Japan far exceeded its required contribution, investing approximately $17.6 billion in climate projects; the European Union came close to its investment goal with $9.8 billion. The United States contributed $7.5 billion, well under recommended levels. Moving forward, developed nations have agreed to contribute $100 billion annually to climate projects by 2020. The report suggests that better systems of measurement need to be developed to ensure this goal is met.

For additional information see: Bloomberg , Report

DOE Releases New Standards for Microwaves

On May 31, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) finalized new energy efficiency standards for microwave ovens that reduce energy consumption in standby mode. The new standards will take effect in 2016 and are projected to save consumers $3.4 billion on their electricity bills over the next 30 years and achieve carbon dioxide emissions reductions equivalent to the removal of 12 million vehicles for a year. Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz stated, “Appliance efficiency standards represent a huge opportunity to help families save money by saving energy, while still delivering high quality appliances for consumers.” This is the first standard to use the revised social cost of carbon.

For additional information see: DOE Press Release

Study: Earth “Very Likely” to Warm More than Two Degrees Celsius by End of Century

A study published May 26 in Nature Climate Change concludes that if current greenhouse gas emissions trends continue, the Earth will likely warm more than two degrees Celsius, but not more than six degrees Celsius, by 2100. Researchers used historical measurements of carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperature observations to help reduce uncertainty of the future behavior of the carbon cycle – which according to study’s climate model, is the second most important contributor to uncertainty in temperature projections for the 21st century. “This study ultimately shows why waiting for certainty will fail as a strategy. Some uncertainty will always remain, meaning that we need to manage the risks of warming with the knowledge we have,” stated lead author Roger Bodman, a climate researcher at Victoria University.

For additional information see: Mongabay , The Conversation , Study

Two Degree Goal No Longer Realistic

The German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) released a report on June 2 that concludes the international goal of preventing global temperature increase of more than two degrees Celsius is no longer realistic and policymakers must create a new global target. The report, Modifying the 2°C Target, encourages European leaders to develop “clear ideas,” citing that the two degree goal has failed to lead to successful policy. The report also promotes the investigation of “all options for target modification as soon as possible,” even those that are politically unpopular. Report author Dr. Oliver Geden, senior associate at SWP, stated, “Since a target that is obviously unattainable cannot fulfill either a positive symbolic function or a productive governance function, the primary target of international climate policy will have to be modified.”

For additional information see: Bloomberg , Report

Leaks Could Reduce Climate Benefits of Natural Gas

A new report from the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions (C2ES) finds that greater use of natural gas has reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in the United States, but will not be enough to halt climate change. The report finds that current CO2 emissions in the United States are the lowest they have been in nearly 20 years, but that methane emissions are likely to compromise those gains. Methane, which is a significantly more potent greenhouse gas than CO2, leaks into the atmosphere during the extraction and transmission of natural gas. Eileen Claussen, president of C2ES, noted, "We have to deal with the methane emissions – whether they are large, which I think is unlikely, or whether they are small. Natural gas is a big benefit right now, and you can see it in our emissions. But it doesn't mean that left to our own natural devices it would be a great thing in 2050 because it wouldn't be – unless you did some form of carbon capture." Even if methane emissions can be eliminated, the study finds that the use of natural gas will not be enough to significantly address climate change. The C2ES report concludes that the only real solution for climate change is zero-emissions energy sources.

For additional information see: Bloomberg , The Guardian , Report

Study Finds Climate Change Since 1970 Driven by CFCs

A study published May 30 in the International Journal of Modern Physics B concludes that chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), and not carbon dioxide, are responsible for global warming since the 1970s. Study author Qing-Bin Lu, professor of physics and astronomy, biology and chemistry, at the University of Waterloo, said, “The data shows that CFCs conspiring with cosmic rays caused both the polar ozone hole and global warming.” The study is based on data from 1850 and Lu’s cosmic-ray-driven electron-reaction theory of ozone depletion and its interaction with global temperatures. Previous research has shown that CFCs are potent global warming gases, but their use is being phased out under the Montreal Protocol and their concentration in the atmosphere is small. The report predicts a cooling of global temperature for the coming five to seven decades as the amount of CFCs in the atmosphere decline. Many climate scientists are skeptical of the results. Dr. James Drummond, atmospheric scientist at Dalhousie University in Halifax, said, “Anybody who wants to demonstrate that there is another mechanism causing the warming, apart from CO2, has to demonstrate why the CO2 is not causing the warming, because that goes against 150 years of very fundamental physics.”

For additional information see: Vancouver Sun , Press Release , Study

CO2 Emissions Linked to Rise in Global Foliage Cover

According to a study published in Geophysical Research Letters, increased atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) has augmented foliage coverage in arid regions around the world. The researchers modeled the expected effects of atmospheric carbon levels on foliage levels and compared their model to actual satellite footage. The model found that foliage levels should have increased between five and 10 percent from 1982 to 2010. According to satellite data, there was an actual increase of 11 percent. Lead author Dr. Randall Donohue, research scientist at the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) in Australia, explained, “A leaf can extract more carbon from the air during photosynthesis, or lose less water to the air during photosynthesis, or both, due to elevated CO2. If elevated CO2 causes the water use of individual leaves to drop, plants will respond by increasing their total numbers of leaves, and this should be measurable from satellite.” The researchers also noted that, although CO2 can “fertilize” woody plants, the benefit does not extend to grasses in the same way. Dr. Thomas Lovejoy, biodiversity chair at the Heinz Center for Science, Economics and the Environment, cautioned, “In those cases where CO2 fertilizations works, it will not necessarily be a long term effect because a nutrient limitation can kick in. That certainly happened in the case of the first big CO2 fertilization experiment at the Duke forest in North Carolina. I believe it is likely to happen in large areas of the forested tropics because nutrient poor soils are widespread.”

For additional information see: USA Today , Voice of America , Study

16th Annual Congressional Renewable Energy & Energy Efficiency EXPO + Policy Forum