Climate Change News - July 9, 2012

Scientists Argue Extreme Weather Is Result of Climate Change

This year has already seen record-breaking temperatures, devastating wildfires, massive storms and widespread drought. While it is difficult to link individual weather events to climate change, scientists submit that recent weather offers a proof of the world’s changing weather patterns. “It’s really dramatic how many of the patterns that we’ve talked about as the expression of the extremes are hitting the U.S. right now,” said Dr. Chris Field of Stanford University, lead author of a recent special report on extreme events and disasters by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). "What we're seeing now is the future. We're going to be seeing a lot more weather like this, a lot more impacts like we're seeing from this series of heat waves, fires and storms," added Dr. Jeff Masters, Director of Meteorology at the Weather Underground. The United States already has set 40,000 heat-related temperature records this year. More than two-thirds of the country is under a severe drought, contributing to wildfires in Colorado and New Mexico that have ravaged millions of acres. A devastating derecho storm, with five times the energy of a normal thunderstorm, was linked to more than 20 deaths and left millions without power from Chicago to Washington, DC.

For additional information see: Guardian , Washington Post

Poll: Pollution Overtakes Climate Change As U.S. Public’s Top Environmental Concern

Americans no longer perceive climate change to be the world’s primary environmental problem, according to a Washington Post-Stanford University poll. Eighteen percent of those polled named global warming as the top environmental concern, down from 33 percent in 2007. Instead, 29 percent said air and water pollution was the most urgent environmental problem, a figure that has remained relatively constant in the poll’s history. The majority, however, remain concerned about climate change. Seventy-eight percent of respondents believe that climate change will present at least a somewhat serious challenge for the United States. Roughly the same number would like to see the federal government take some form of action to address rising temperatures. Follow-up interviews with participants found that government inaction and reduced national exposure has decreased public attention to the climate change issue. The poll was conducted by phone from June 13 to June 21, included 804 adults nationwide, and reported a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

For additional information see: Washington Post , The Hill , Poll Results

Cost Reduction Efforts on Carbon Capture and Storage Ineffective

A new report by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office concludes that government efforts to drive down the cost of carbon capture and storage (CCS) have not been effective and the technology is still too expensive to be commercially viable. Since 2005, the U.S. government has spent $6.9 billion developing several large-scale CCS demonstration projects, with little effect on the cost of CCS. The report says that without emissions restrictions or a price on carbon emissions, utilities have little incentive to invest in CCS. Electricity from coal plants using CCS currently costs about 75 percent more than power from conventional power plants. The report says that federal money would be better spent on basic research and development of CCS, in hopes of generating cost-reducing technological breakthroughs.

For additional information see: Washington Post , Bloomberg

North Carolina Legislature Passes Revised Sea Level Rise Bill

Last week, the North Carolina General Assembly passed a revised version of the controversial bill banning the use of sea level rise data for planning purposes. The original bill, which garnered national attention and criticism, forbids local planning boards from using climate models that predict accelerated sea level rise when planning coastal developments. Planners were instead obliged to use historic data that project a rise in sea levels of only eight inches. The revised version of the bill puts a moratorium on the use of accelerated sea level rise data until 2016, and calls for a new “comprehensive study” on sea levels in 2015. "This version is better than the original Senate version," said climate researcher Robert Jackson of Duke University. "It's still bad policy, though, because it requires the state to bury its head in the sand for 4 more years." The legislation now goes to North Carolina Governor Beverly Perdue, who has 10 days to sign the bill, veto, or allow it to become law without her signature.

For additional information see: Reuters , Science

Quebec and California to Combine Cap and Trade Programs

Quebec and California appear set to formalize a unified market for carbon emissions by 2013 as part of the Western Climate Initiative. If the plan goes through, carbon permits issued in either the state or province could be freely traded. California is scheduled to begin auctioning permits in November. Quebec, in turn, is looking to make good on its promise to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 20 percent below 1990 levels by the year 2020. Combining the programs is expected to lead to a stronger carbon market and further emissions reductions. Before this process can be completed, however, the California Air Resources Board must determine the Quebec cap and trade system to be as strict as California’s. The regulators appear set to do so, but delayed a vote for 45 days to allow Governor Jerry Brown to review the plan. Quebec’s Minister of Sustainable Development and Environment Pierre Arcand is “confident” that the two programs will be united soon.

For additional information see: Montreal Gazette

New York Limits Emissions from New Power Plants

On June 28, New York regulators set limits on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from new and expanded power plants in the state. The new regulations set a limit of 925 lbs of CO2 emissions per megawatt hour for base-load fuel-burning plants. Coal plants normally produce 1000 lbs of CO2 per megawatt hour, meaning that the new law will prevent the construction of new coal plants unless they have some form of carbon capture and storage. New York has approximately two dozen coal-fired power plants, and none under active development. "By preventing new high-carbon sources of energy, this performance standard will serve to further minimize the power sector's contribution to climate change, which poses a substantial threat to public health and the environment," said Joseph Martens, Commissioner of the state’s Department of Environmental Conservation. The New York regulations are somewhat more strict than a proposed federal regulation that would limit power plants to 1000 lbs of CO2 per megawatt hour.

For additional information see: Reuters

New Hampshire Legislature Compromises on Cap and Trade Program

The New Hampshire legislature passed a bill qualifying the state’s participation in the nine-state Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI). The new law specifies that New Hampshire will remain in the RGGI unless one state with at least 10 percent of the region’s energy load or any two states opt out of the program. The RGGI cap and trade program requires polluters to buy the right to emit greenhouse gases through state-sponsored auctions. RGGI has generated over $31 million in New Hampshire since its introduction in 2008, but Republican lawmakers oppose the initiative on the grounds that it passes auction costs onto electric ratepayers. One study found that regional electricity rates rose 0.7 percent between 2009 and 2011. The law uses auction revenues to provide rebates to ratepayers and to fund utility-run energy efficiency programs, diverting funds that had gone to the state’s Public Utility Commission. The bill passed without Governor John Lynch’s signature. The governor vetoed a bill last year that would have removed the state from RGGI altogether.

For additional information see: Boston Herald

Greenland Ice Sheet Could Reach Melting Threshold

Scientists have concluded in a recent report that the Greenland Ice Sheet will continue to melt at record levels this summer. Rising land and ocean temperatures are causing more of Greenland’s terrain to show through the remaining ice sheet, causing the remaining ice to lose some of its reflective properties and melt at a faster rate than expected. Scientists have also found that the snow crystals in the ice pack lose their shape and reflective properties as they heat and cool over long periods of time, absorbing more sunlight and in turn warming the area around them. Lead author Dr. Jason Box of Ohio State University explains, “It appears that we’re about to cross a threshold in summer . . . you might even call it a tipping point as we go into a net energy absorption [of the higher elevations.] Then we’ll see the melt area expanding abruptly and potentially covering the entire ice sheet in summer for the first time in observations.”

For additional information see: Climate Central , NOAA , Report

New Zealand Delays Stricter Emissions Measures Until 2015

Under pressure from industry groups, the New Zealand government announced it would continue its two-for-one carbon credit plan through 2015 as part the country’s emissions trading scheme (ETS). Originally set to end at the end of this year, the two-for-one plan allows New Zealand businesses to offset only half of their emissions. The decision will hold at least until 2015, when the ETS is next scheduled for review. The government said it would cap the price of carbon emission credits at NZ$25 (US$20.09) per metric tonne, and it would also allow for the use of cheaper international emissions credits in the scheme. The price per carbon credit on July 2 was NZ$6.95 (US$5.59). The government also announced that the agricultural sector would continue to be exempt from the ETS through 2015. Agriculture is a major driver of the New Zealand economy, and its exclusion from the ETS may limit the environmental benefits of the scheme. The ETS was started in 2010 as part of New Zealand’s goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 10 to 20 percent below 1990 levels.

For additional information see: Reuters , New Zealand Herald

Emissions Cuts Will Slow but Not Stop Sea Level Rise

A new study has found that drastic cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and reduced global warming would only be enough to slow, not stop, global sea levels from rising over the next several centuries. Warmer temperatures from present day will gradually penetrate into the deep levels of the sea, causing those waters to warm and expand, leading to additional sea level rise. This thermal expansion of the deep seas will continue for the next 200 years without any additional temperature increases. According to the study in the journal Nature Climate Change, "Even with aggressive mitigation measures that limit global warming to less than 2 degrees above pre-industrial values by 2100, and with decreases of global temperature in the 22nd and 23rd centuries. . . sea level continues to rise after 2100." The study calculated that if deep emissions cuts were made and global temperatures cooled 0.83 degrees Celsius by 2100 (from the 1986-2005 average) and another 0.55 degrees by 2300, the continued thermal expansion of the deep sea would raise sea levels by 14.2 cm in 2100 and 24.2 cm in 2300.

For additional information see: Reuters , Nature Climate Change

Arctic Tundra to Release Carbon as Forests Move Northward

A recent study in the journal Nature Climate Change found that increased tree growth in the Arctic tundra stimulates decomposition rates in the surrounding soil, releasing stored carbon dioxide. A team of British researchers measured the carbon stock in the tundra and nearby birch forests in northern Sweden. They concluded that carbon stored in the trees was more than offset by carbon loss from the forest’s soil. Contributing author Dr. Gareth Phoenix said of the study, ". . . tundra soil contains a lot of stored organic matter, due to slow decomposition, but the trees stimulate the decomposition of this material. So, where before we thought trees moving onto tundra would increase carbon storage it seems the opposite may be true. So, more bad news for climate change."

For additional information see: Science Daily , Sydney Morning Herald , Nature Climate Change

Leatherback Sea Turtles Threatened by Global Warming

Scientists reported in Nature Climate Change that rising temperatures will further reduce leatherback sea turtle populations by impacting survival rates of eggs and hatchlings. Leatherback hatchlings are more likely to survive in cooler, wetter years, conditions which are projected to become less common in the Eastern Pacific. The research is part of an ongoing long-term study of turtle populations in Costa Rica. Princeton researcher Dr. Vincent Saba explained, “[The study] used three models of this leatherback population to construct a climate-forced population dynamics model. Two parts were based on the population’s observed sensitivity to the nesting beach climate and one part was based on its sensitivity to the ocean climate.” Females are more likely to nest during years with cooler ocean temperatures, when jellyfish populations are higher. The study found that nesting populations of leatherbacks, already at historically low levels due to egg poaching and other human activity, could decline an additional 75 percent by the year 2100.

For additional information see: Nature Climate Change , Hindustan Times , Science Daily

Warming Temperatures Give Rise to Urban ‘Heat Islands’

Dense urban areas of concrete and little tree cover are forming micro-climate pockets known as ‘heat islands.’ These areas, typically in lower-income communities, can experience temperatures 10 or 20 degrees hotter than the surrounding city and are responsible for an increasing number of heat-related illnesses and deaths. The heat island effect is the result of warming temperatures and urbanization, where the lack of shade allows concrete and asphalt to radiate heat into the air. "I call them heat storms because they are so dramatic. In 2006, we had a heat wave and 147 people were documented as dying. . . but researchers believe the number was three or four times higher - that over 600 people died as a result," said Nancy Steele, director of the southern California-based Council for Watershed Health. Last week, the Council for Watershed Health hosted a three-day conference on how to deal with the effects of climate change, which was attended by city planners and environmental groups from California and other cities that share southern California’s Mediterranean climate, like Tel Aviv and Cape Town. The Los Angeles area has several communities that can generate heat islands. Amigos de los Rios, an LA-based nonprofit, is working on a new project to plant native trees and build parks in low-income neighborhoods to provide more shade to those areas.

For additional information see: San Jose Mercury News

Climate Change Altering Fish Populations in the North Sea

Marine populations off the coast of Great Britain are changing their migratory patterns, eating habits, and habitat depths and locations in response to rising temperature and ocean acidification. According to John Pinnegar, program director of the Marine Climate Change Centre, the North Sea has warmed six times faster than other marine areas in the last 50-100 years for a total warming of one degree Celsius. Cod and haddock, local seafood staples, are being replaced by anchovy, red mullet, and sea bass from the south as both groups search out cooler water. Remaining fish species will need to increase food intake in order to adjust to warmer temperatures, but may have difficulty finding food as cold-water zooplankton species have moved nearly 700 miles north. Though species may migrate, experts expect that Great Britain’s marine food security will remain intact. "From the modeling that has been done, it looks like the U.K. is almost at the break-even point,” Pinnegar said. “We gain some species and we lose some species. But in terms of our fisheries, it will probably balance out almost.”

For additional information see: Climatewire