Climate Change News - December 23, 2013

Fifteen States Petition EPA for Strict Carbon Reduction Targets

On December 16, 15 states filed a petition to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), asking that their efforts to reduce greenhouse gases be recognized when the agency releases existing source standards for carbon dioxide (CO2) in June. According to the signatories, by 2011 their states had cut emissions 20 percent relative to 2005 levels. They say that their programs can help guide other states in reducing emissions, and they hope that the work they have already done is credited. The petition asks for a federal emissions standard that is system-wide and would cut power-plant emissions over 17 percent, but that also gives states the flexibility to implement their own proprietary programs. Officials from California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New Hampshire,  New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington signed the petition, stating, “our states are already achieving significant carbon pollution reductions from the power sector, and are demonstrating a variety of ways in which such reductions can be achieved.” Without deeper cuts to emissions, the United States will not achieve the President’s 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020 emissions reduction goal. Suggestions for achieving deeper CO2 reductions include adopting a more holistic approach to climate change policy: rather than telling individual power plants to cut emissions, they suggest that federal policies should work to transition the U.S. electric-grid towards low-carbon energy sources. Wanting to preserve programs already working in their states, the petition says, “we encourage EPA to develop a stringent but flexible framework that equitably achieves meaningful reductions in carbon.”  

For additional information see: Bloomberg , The Hill , Reuters

DOI Reports That Climate Change Threatens California’s Santa Ana Watershed

On December 12, the Department of Interior (DOI) Bureau of Reclamation released a study which identifies the potential impacts of climate change on the projected water supply and demand in California’s Santa Ana watershed over the next 50 years. The study predicts that the watershed’s future challenges will include greater water demand from growing populations, earlier snowmelt and runoff, and increasing sea level rise which threatens groundwater basins and coastal communities. Average temperatures are expected to rise, while annual surface water supply and rainfall are projected to decrease. This work is the first to examine climate change impacts on the 2,600 square-mile Santa Ana River Watershed, which is home to over 6 million residents in Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino counties. The study explains, “In light of climate change, prolonged drought conditions, growth, and population projections, a strong concern exists to ensure there will be adequate water supplies to meet future demand.” The Bureau of Reclamation conducted the Basin Study under the authorization of the 2009 SECURE Water Act. Highlights of their work include the development of a Greenhouse Gas Emissions Calculator, the creation of a Groundwater Screening Tool, and a new “frequently asked questions” publication which is meant to assist water sector leaders in decision-making.

For additional information see: E&E Publishing , U.S. Bureau of Reclamation

IEA Says “Radical Action” Needed on Climate Change in Five Year Outlook

On December 16, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published its “Medium-Term Coal Market Report 2013,” stating that the global demand for coal will grow at an average rate of 2.3 percent through 2018, in comparison to last year’s forecast of 2.6 percent through 2017 and the actual growth rate of 3.4 percent per year between 2007 and 2012. "Like it or not, coal is here to stay for a long time to come,” Maria Van der Hoeven, the executive director of IEA, said. “But it is equally important to emphasize that coal in its current form is simply unsustainable." Van der Hoeven explained that “radical action is needed to curb greenhouse gas emissions,” and although the knowledge has existed since the 1960s to build “efficient, supercritical coal-fired power plants,” countries have so far failed to do so. According to EIA, China will maintain dominance over the global coal market, accounting for 60 percent of new global demand over the next five years. Meanwhile, stronger Chinese regulations on reducing coal dependency will help slow the global demand growth with the rest of Asian demand staying buoyant. The report also projects that in the United States "while growing shale gas production will push coal prices down, environmental regulation will cause the closure of considerable coal capacity and carbon dioxide policy will prevent investments in new coal plants," and that increasing shale gas production will continue to encourage the coal-to-gas switching.

For additional information see: The Hill , IEA Press Release , IEA Report

China Raises $30 Million in Its First Carbon Auction

On December 16, China held its first carbon emissions permit auction in the province of Guangdong, raising 180 million yuan ($30 million) from 28 participating companies. A total of 3 million metric tons of emission permits were sold at an average price of 60.71 yuan ($10) with the highest bid at 81 yuan ($13.3), according to China Emission Exchange, the agency which oversees Guangdong’s emissions trading. The 60 yuan ($9.88) per permit floor price set for the Guangdong auction is currently the highest in the nation, in comparison to 28 yuan ($4.61) per ton in Shenzhen, 25 yuan ($4.12) in Shanghai and 50 yuan ($8.24) in Beijing. Additionally, instead of giving away all initial permits within the allocated emissions quota for free to participants as the three other cities have elected, the more than 240 companies covered by the Guangdong emissions market will have to purchase some permits at auctions in order to be able to trade the free-of-charge 97 percent of their emissions quotas. “Auctions in Guangdong will help to activate the market in this early stage,” commented Charlie Cao, a Beijing-based analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance. These pilot markets are expected to lead to a nationwide trading system to be introduced in 2016 in order to reduce the carbon intensity, or carbon emissions per unit of gross domestic product, to 40 to 45 percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

For additional information see: Bloomberg , Reuters

Climate Change Is Reducing Reindeer Population

On December 15, the journal Nature Climate Change published a study that shows Canadian caribou populations, commonly referred to as reindeer, are in jeopardy due to climate change. The researchers found that the roughly 2 million caribou in Canada are less genetically diverse than populations worldwide, making them more sensitive to changes in environment.  If greenhouse gas emissions remain steady, 89 percent of the Canadian caribou will be at risk for losing their habitat by 2080. Globally, caribou herds could lose up to 60 percent of their range by 2080. Already, some herds in Canada are collapsing, with populations of the George River herd found in Northern Quebec and Labrador falling from 800,000 animals in the 1980s to fewer than 20,000 currently.   Researchers at Laval University examined DNA samples from 1,300 caribou from North America, Europe, Russia and Greenland to determine how the animals have adapted to past climate changes, and to predict how they might respond to future spikes in temperature due to climate change. The researchers estimate that in addition to climate change, disease, over-hunting, and habitat degradation due to mining, logging and oil and gas extraction are contributing to the steep decline. Besides carrying Santa’s sleigh, caribou are a staple of the Canadian First Nations’ diet. Steeve Cote, professor of Biology at Laval University and lead author, has advocated for a moratorium on caribou hunting in the George River area until the herd can recover, which has met with resistance from some First Nations hunters.  According to Cote, the cultural and dietary significance of the caribou to the First Nations means that “they are the ones that will suffer the most.”

For additional information see: Canada.com , Study

Earth’s Sensitivity to Carbon Dioxide Could Be Double Previous Estimates

On December 10, the Geological Society of London (GSL) released new findings that the Earth’s sensitivity to carbon dioxide (CO2) could be twice that of earlier estimates. The authors explain that climate models usually examine short-term factors, such as annual snow and ice melt, to calculate the Earth’s sensitivity to CO2 (defined as the average global temperature increase caused by doubling the quantity of CO2 in the atmosphere). By adding long-term factors from paleoclimatology, including the slow melt of large ice sheets, the researchers discovered that the Earth could be twice as sensitive as the previous models had suggested. Dr. Colin Summerhayes, a scientist at the Scott Polar Research Institute and the working group chairman, commented, “The climate sensitivity suggested by modern climate models may be fine for the short term, but does not encompass the full range of climate expected in the long term.” The findings were presented as an addendum to a GSL 2010 report on climate change.

For additional information see: Climate News Network , Press Release , Study

Climate Change Will Severely Increase Water Scarcity This Century

On December 16, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research published findings that a global warming of 2 degrees Celsius over present global temperatures will confront 15 percent more people with a severely diminished water supply, and put 40 percent more people at risk of absolute water scarcity. Currently, between one and two people in 100 are subject to absolute water scarcity, defined as living with under 500 cubic meters of water annually, per person. Climate change and population growth could raise that ratio to ten people out of 100. Because of the variable local effects of climate change, regions such as the Mediterranean, the Middle East, and the southern United States and southern China may experience a substantial decrease in available water, while areas in eastern Africa, western China and southern India could experience an increase. Study co-author Pavel Kabat, of the International Insitute for Applied Systems Analysis, noted, “From a risk management perspective, it becomes very clear that, if human-made climate change continues, we are putting at risk the very basis of life for millions of people, even according to the more optimistic scenarios and models.” Study authors applied five global climate models with different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios to observe their effects on 11 global hydrological models (GHMs).

For additional information see: Bloomberg , US News , Press Release