Climate Change News - August 6, 2012

More Severe Storms Could Cause Ozone Depletion

A new study, published July 27 in the journal Science, links climate change with the depletion of the ozone layer. The study builds on recent research showing that climate change will lead to more severe weather in the United States (see July 16 issue). It warns that intense thunderstorms will pump water vapor high into the stratosphere, where the vapor can cause ozone-destroying chemical reactions. “What this research does is connect, for the first time, climate change with ozone depletion, and ozone loss is directly tied to increases in skin cancer incidence, because more ultraviolet radiation is penetrating the atmosphere," said the study’s lead researcher James G. Anderson. In addition to an increased incidence of skin cancer, a depleted ozone layer could lead to ultraviolet radiation damage to many staple crops, such a wheat and corn. The study’s authors say that further research is needed to know the full effects on the ozone layer, including direct measurements of the stratosphere in areas where water vapor was present after storms.

For additional information see: New York Times , Science Daily , Study

Prominent Skeptic Now Accepts Anthropogenic Climate Change

Global average temperatures have been rising over the last 150 years and "humans are almost entirely the cause," according to a new study led by prominent climate change skeptic Professor Richard Muller of the University of California, Berkeley. Muller spoke about his research July 30 in a New York Times op-ed, saying “three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt on the very existence of global warming. Last year, following an intensive research effort involving a dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of the rate of warming were correct.” Muller’s reversal on global warming came as a result of his work with the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project. The study, released on the Berkeley website but not yet peer reviewed, concludes that the average temperature of the Earth's surface has risen by 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) over the past 250 years and that correspondence between the temperature record and historical data on CO2 emissions suggests human activity is "the most straightforward explanation" for the change.

For additional information see: New York Times Op-ed , BBC , Guardian , Study

Proposed Hydrofluorocarbons Cuts under Montreal Protocol Stalled

Delegates met in Bangkok during the week of July 23-27 for the 32nd Open-ended Working Group of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer. Among the orders of business were proposals by the Federated States of Micronesia and a separate proposal from the United States, Canada and Mexico to amend the Montreal Protocol to phase-down the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). HFCs are ‘super’ greenhouse gases with warming potentials several orders of magnitude greater than carbon dioxide (CO2). The proposals would reduce 85 percent of HFCs production and use, and produce climate mitigation equivalent to 100 billion tonnes of CO2 by 2050, or ten times that of the Kyoto Protocol. “Phasing down HFCs under Montreal [Protocol] is a fast-action strategy that can provide the biggest, fastest, and cheapest climate mitigation available to the world this decade," stated Durwood Zaelke, a climate expert and President of the Institute for Governance and Sustainable Development. “Fast success cutting HFCs, in addition to other short-lived climate pollutants, will slow the accelerating rate of global and regional warming, save millions of lives each year, and increase food security.” The formal negotiations were stalled by China, India, and Brazil. But a group of 100 countries plans to continue to push for a resolution at the forthcoming 24th Meeting of the Parties to the Montreal Protocol in November.

For additional information see: Institute for Governance & Sustainable Development , Natural Resources Defense Council , International Institute for Sustainable Development

Senate Holds First Hearing about Climate Change since 2009

On August 1, the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works held its first hearing about the science of climate change since February 2009. The hearing, entitled “Update on the Latest Climate Change Science and Local Adaptation Measures,” was organized by Committee Chair Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) in response to public pressure to address climate change. The invited witnesses included Christopher Field, Professor of Biology and Environmental Earth Science at Stanford University and a lead author of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report. In his testimony, Field highlighted the connection between extreme weather and climate change, saying, "There is no doubt that climate has changed, there is also no doubt that a changing climate changes the risks of extremes, including extremes that can lead to disaster."

For additional information see: Guardian , Reuters , Webcast & Complete Testimony

Senate Committee Approves Measure Allowing U.S. Airlines to Disregard EU Aviation Tax

The European Union Emissions Trading Scheme Prohibition Act (S. 1956) was approved by the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee on July 31. The bill directs the U.S. Department of Transportation to prohibit U.S. airlines from paying for carbon emissions produced on flights through European Union (EU) airports as mandated by the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme. The bill, authored by Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO), was originally opposed by Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Sen. John Kerry (D-MA). But Senators Boxer and Kerry voted for the bill after the addition of a compromise amendment requiring the Department of Transportation to seek a multilateral solution to the EU aviation carbon price through the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). "We're saying no to unilateral moves by Europe, but yes to taking a lead role in doing something collaboratively," Sen. Boxer said. A similar bill has already been approved by the full House, and S. 1956 will now go before the full Senate for a vote. China is also seeking to resolve its dispute with the EU on aviation emission taxes through a multilateral agreement under the ICAO (see July 30 issue).

For additional information see: The Hill , Reuters

North Carolina Bill on Sea Level Rise Becomes Law

A controversial bill that prevents North Carolina state agencies from defining rates of sea level rise for planning purposes became law last week when Democratic Governor Beverly Perdue declined to sign or veto the legislation. "North Carolina should not ignore science when making public policy decisions . . . I urge the General Assembly to revisit this issue and develop an approach that gives state agencies the flexibility to take appropriate action in response to sea-level change within the next four years," said Perdue in a statement. Last month, the North Carolina legislature passed the bill as a watered-down version of an earlier, more controversial proposal regarding sea rise (see June 18 issue). The original version of the bill prohibited the state from using projections of accelerated sea rise when forming coastal development policies and rules. The compromised version allows local governments to use their own scientific studies to define rates of sea level change.

For additional information see: Star News

European Union Proposes Postponing Auction of Some Emissions Credits to Aid Carbon Market

On July 25, the European Commission released a plan to aid the European Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS). The price of a carbon emissions permit under the European Union (EU) ETS fell to 7 euros at the end of July, a drop of more than 50 percent since the beginning of 2011. The drop is caused by what European Commissioner for Climate Action Connie Hedegaard calls “a growing surplus of allowances built up over the last few years.” The EU plan to augment emissions permit prices includes delaying the auction of a portion of the permits for the third phase of the EU ETS, which begins in 2013. Hedegaard justifies the plan, saying, “It is not wise to deliberately continue to flood a market that is already over-supplied." The number of permits to be delayed is still being discussed, with possibilities of 400 million, 900 million or 1.2 billion permits having been presented. The decision will be debated at an EU climate change committee meeting on September 19.

For additional information see: Wall Street Journal , Reuters

Tanzania Could Gain from Changing Climate

A recent study found that China and India, Asia’s largest corn producers, will experience more severe droughts as a result of climate change, turning them into net importers of corn. Tanzania, on the other hand, has the potential to substantially increase its maize exports because it will likely experience comparatively wetter conditions. The study, published August 1 in the Review of Development Economics, uses economic, climatic and agricultural data and computational models to forecast the occurrence of severe dry years during the next nine decades in Tanzania and several of its key trading partners. "Tanzania is a particularly interesting case, as it has the potential to benefit from climate change if climate model predictions of decreasing drought in East Africa prove to be correct, and if trade policies are constructed to take advantage of those new opportunities," said study co-author Noah Diffenbaugh, assistant professor in the School of Earth Science at Stanford University. These findings could be relevant to grain-growing countries around the world. Countries stand to profit from exports in years when trading partners are enduring severe dry or hot weather, and they can safeguard themselves against poor growing conditions at home by importing from less affected regions.

For additional information see: Science Daily

Study Reveals How Carbon Cycles through the Oceans

A team of British and Australian researchers have discovered that one of the world’s largest carbon sinks, the Southern Ocean, operates differently than previously thought. In an article published on July 29 in Nature Geoscience, they describe how the Southern Ocean traps about 40 percent of all carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions absorbed by the world's oceans. Some of this trapped carbon is cycled back to the surface in a process known as re-ventilation. "A conventional thought would be that once [CO2] gets out of this surface layer, it's kind of been tucked away and won't appear for a long time," said the study’s co-author Richard Matear. "But with this re-ventilation, there's some places where actually it doesn't get put away into the deep ocean for long at all, re-ventilating in the time scale of a decade." Much of this re-ventilation occurs in the Indian Ocean in a band extending eastwards from South Africa. This finding could have major implications for iron fertilization projects which seek to sequester carbon on the sea floor (see July 30 issue).

For additional information see: Australian Broadcasting Corporation , Vancouver Sun , Christian Science Monitor , Science Daily

Climate Change Would Displace Millions

In a recent interview on National Public Radio, researchers discussed the danger of forced displacement due to lasting effects of climate change. Celia McMichael, research fellow at Australia’s La Trobe University, and Jon Barnett, political geographer at Australia’s University of Melbourne, discussed the need for global policy to counteract climate change-induced forced displacement, planned resettlement, and urban migration. Celia McMichael said, “Any climate change–related migration is going to be along the lines of existing migratory patterns, and they are typically within developing regions. So I think at a policy level the point is to look at migration not as a problem that needs to be managed, including by undeveloped countries, but [as] part of an adaptation portfolio, with this issue in mind that migration can have adverse outcomes, including health outcomes.”

For additional information see: Report in Environmental Health Perspectives , Interview , Science and Development Network

Restoring Mangrove Forests May Be Key to Storing Carbon

According to a new study published July 30 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, the restoration of mangrove forests could play a key role in offsetting global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Mangrove ecosystems, often found where freshwater rivers meet the sea, currently make up only 0.7 percent of the world's forests but their ability to store carbon is five times that of a tropic forest. This is because the mangroves’ complex root systems slow down incoming tidal waters, allowing organic and inorganic material to settle into the sediment surface. Low oxygen conditions slow decay rates, resulting in much of the carbon accumulating in the soil. The study argues that mangrove restoration could be a relatively cheap way to offset emissions; costing between $4 and $10 per ton of CO2 offset. Along with helping to prevent climate change, mangroves have been shown to preserve species diversity, prevent coastal erosion and protect local fishing economies. Mangrove forests have experienced a 30 to 50 percent decline in the past 50 years.

For additional information see: Scientific American , BBC

Himalayan Glaciers Melting at Accelerating Rate

An analysis of 30 years of satellite data and field measurements has revealed that a majority of Himalayan glaciers are shrinking at an accelerating rate. The research, published July 15 in Nature Climate Change, looked at the length and surface area of 7,000 Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers over the last 30 years and found that the glaciers have shrunk by an average of nine percent. When looking at glacier size by decade, it was found that the rate of melting is accelerating. Himalayan glaciers supply water to about 1.4 billion people in Asia. These findings contrast with those of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, which published a paper earlier this year. That paper was an analysis of seven years of measurements and concluded that the Himalayan glaciers were receding very slowly, and in some cases growing.

For additional information see: Nature , United Press International , Study

California Energy Infrastructure Vulnerable to Climate Change

A series of studies from the California Natural Resources Agency and the California Energy Commission has found that global warming will bring more wildfires, heat waves and droughts to the state, as well as seriously strain the state’s energy grid. Our Changing Climate 2012, a series of peer-reviewed studies designed to help California prepare for and adapt to climate change, said that higher temperatures will mean more demand for air conditioning, which will require California to increase its electric generating capacity by 38 percent above current levels by 2100. At the same time, drier conditions will decrease hydropower generation capability in the summer months when it is needed most. Electrical transmission lines will also lose seven to eight percent of their transmitting capacity on the hottest days of the year. The report found that those problems can be reduced by introducing more renewable energy and creating a more distributed electric grid.

For additional information see: Reuters , Mercury News