Impacts of Growing Wildfire-Related Emissions on the Global Carbon Budget, the +1.5 Limit, and the Next NDCs

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute and the Woodwell Climate Research Center held a U.N. climate summit (COP29) Side Event on how growing emissions from global wildfires and the resulting feedback loops threaten to undermine our ability to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The panelists presented the latest science behind wildfire emissions as well as their impact on the global carbon budget, and discussed the viability of the 1.5°C limit and the preparation of the next nationally determined contributions (NDCs) in light of those impacts.

The panelists first introduced the latest research on increasing wildfire emissions, which are mostly due to more frequent and intense fires in the Arctic region. Panelists highlighted the latest scientific findings on Arctic wildfires and wildfire-permafrost interactions that are accelerating the release of greenhouse gas emissions. The panelists showed how these wildfire-related emissions affect the carbon budget that remains for limiting global warming to 1.5°C and consider how wildfire mitigation efforts, like those championed by the Arctic Council, may help achieve the Paris Agreement goals. Finally, the panel discussed the ongoing work to align the global climate effort with the 1.5°C limit, the preparation of the next NDCs due in February 2025, and what the research introduced at this event means for the already diminished remaining carbon budget. The panelists were invited to discuss what is needed—both in terms of scientific advances, but also policy ambition—to keep the Paris process on track.