Localizing Sea Level Rise Projections for Decision-Makers

Climate Adaptation Data Week
April 13	Localizing Sea Level Rise Projections for Decision-Makers
April 14	Assessing National Park Asset Flood Risk: Retreat, Adapt, Fortify?
April 15	Cultural Heritage and Climate Change
April 16	Bridging the Gap Between Science and Decision-Making
April 17	Weather and Social Data to Inform Participatory Planning Initiatives
Climate Adaptation Data Week Overview

Global climate data is not always accessible to local decision-makers, especially when projections are at a country or hemispheric scale. The Washington Coastal Resilience Project addresses this problem by generating down-scaled probabilistic sea level rise predictions. Nicole Faghin, Coastal Management Specialist, and Dr. Ian Miller, Coastal Hazard Specialist, both at Washington Sea Grant, shared how they generated these predictions and work to disseminate the data to cities, towns, and NGOs working along the coast.

 

HIGHLIGHTS

 

Dr. Ian Miller, Coastal Hazard Specialist, Washington Sea Grant

Download briefing transcript

• The Washington Sea Grant (WSG) is a program run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) housed at the University of Washington that funds and conducts marine and coastal research, education, and outreach throughout the state.
• A 2014 survey of coastal managers found an “action gap” between problems viewed as important by survey participants and available resources, suggesting that managers were missing information needed to plan for and adapt to rising sea levels.
  • Previous sea level rise projections had a narrow range of uncertainty and were not localized for specific communities, which made it difficult for planners to use the information.
• The WSG recently completed the Washington Coastal Resilience Project, which produced a report published in 2018. The project’s objectives were to support an updated sea level rise and storm surge assessment for coastal Washington, to incorporate climate resilience into state agency processes and plans, to identify resilience co-benefits from existing investments, and to create outreach tools to facilitate resilience projects.
• The project included two innovations to close the action gap on sea level rise:
  • Adopt the use of Kopp’s Probabilistic Framework to show the range of uncertainty for possible sea level rise projections and percentiles associated with the likelihood of a particular amount of sea level rise.
  • Localize projections to specific communities, and incorporate the uplift (rise) or subsidence (fall) of land. Researchers developed an interactive map that allows community planners to download sea level rise projections for specific locations, and the Climate Impacts Group partnered with WSG to develop a tableau-based projection tool that allows users to easily navigate information.

 

Nicole Faghin, Coastal Management Specialist, Washington Sea Grant

• The Washington Coastal Resilience Project included four parts: sea level rise data, state agency guidance, local experience, and training and sharing.
• The goal of the local experience effort was to enhance the resilience of at least three Washington communities through pilot projects to be used as case studies for other communities.
  • Pilot projects were conducted in Tacoma, an urban community; Island County, a rural community; and in partnership with the Estuary and Salmon Restoration Program, a program run by the Washington Fish and Wildlife Service.
• In Tacoma, WSG worked with city departments and Metro Parks Tacoma to incorporate sea level rise in plans to improve existing parks and develop new parks.
• In Island County, the WSG led exercises to walk through sea level rise scenarios and teach how to use and understand projections using the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer and localized projections from the WSG.
  • Island County developed short-term, mid-term, and long-term strategies for homeowners, and a Community-Based Coastal Resilience Planning Guidebook. The Guidebook was developed by the community, and includes a five-step approach designed to be implemented at the local level by neighborhoods.
• The WSG has held over 20 workshops across the Washington coast to help connect decision-makers and communities with the tools needed to adapt to sea level rise.

 

Q&A Session

Have other communities expressed interest in becoming partners in the project? What barriers do other communities face to starting similar plans?

• Faghin: As we’ve been working through this project, more communities are beginning to address sea level rise because of the work we’re doing to heighten awareness of the problem. Having localized information was an initial barrier, but we’re working to break that barrier down by making that information available.

Your presentation showed the NOAA Sea Level Rise Viewer in action. Are there any layers or data that would be useful to your work that are not there or need to be updated?

• Miller: The Sea Level Rise Viewer is a great tool, especially for communities without GIS capacity. If I could add anything it would be to build out links to localized projections and to be able to use the viewer to understand the risk of exposure to extreme water level events.

How do you think about planning for climate impacts on essential infrastructure, such as shipping terminals, and on habitats and wildlife?

• Miller: The WSG is starting a project focused on sensitivity of Puget Sound habitat to sea level rise. Our interest is in understanding all of the impacts of sea level rise on Washington, which includes if and how habitats will respond to sea level rise.
• Faghin: The Washington Department of Transportation has attended our workshops and is looking at the resilience of local facilities, especially ferry systems. Ports and industrial areas in Tacoma were also engaged in the pilot program. Everything is affected and different sectors need the same information, but there are different ways to apply it.