A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change

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The Center for Climate and Security and the Environmental and Energy Study Institute held a briefing on projected climate change impacts on U.S. security and national interests in the coming decades. How will climate impacts affect geopolitics, infrastructure, and security environments in a world with a 2-degree Celsius rise in average global temperature? How about a 4-degree rise?

The briefing showcased the Center for Climate and Security’s Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change report, a product of the National Security, Military, and Intelligence Panel on Climate Change. The report is a comprehensive look at the wide-ranging security impacts of climate change across all six geographic U.S. Combatant Commands, under two scenarios of future warming (a 1-2°C rise in temperatures, and a 2-4°C rise). Authored by a diverse group of U.S. national security and intelligence experts, this report offers both regional and international threat assessments for climate change, and recommendations for the way forward in addressing the looming global challenge.

REPORT HIGHLIGHTS

A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change Republished with permission from The Center for Climate and Security.   Key findings A near-term scenario of climate change, in which the world warms 1°C to 2°C (1.8°F to 3.6°F) over pre-industrial levels by mid-century, would pose ‘High’ to ‘Very High’ security threats. A medium-to-long term scenario in which the world warms as high as 2°C to 4+°C (3.6°F to 7.2+°F) would pose a ‘Very High’ to ‘Catastrophic’ threat to global and national security. The world has already warmed about 1°C compared to pre-industrial temperatures.   At all levels of warming (1°C to 4°C or more), climate change will pose significant and evolving threats to global security environments, infrastructure, and institutions.   While at lower warming thresholds, the most fragile parts of the world are the most at risk, all regions of the world will face serious implications. High warming scenarios could bring about catastrophic security impacts across the globe.   These threats could come about rapidly, destabilizing the regions and relationships on which U.S. and international security depend.   Climate change will present significant threats to U.S. military missions across all of its geographic areas of responsibility, as well as to regional security institutions and infrastructure that are critical for maintaining global security. Key recommendations Mitigating these risks requires quickly reducing and phasing out global greenhouse gas emissions. We call for the world to achieve net-zero global emissions as soon as possible in a manner that is ambitious, safe, equitable, and well-governed, in order to avoid severe and catastrophic security futures.   The world must also “climate-proof” environments, infrastructure, institutions, and systems on which human security depends, and so we call for rapidly building resilience to current and expected impacts of climate change, with future-oriented investments in adaptation, disaster response, and peacebuilding.   In the United States, we call for renewed efforts to prioritize, communicate, and respond to climate security threats, and to integrate these considerations across all security planning. Topline risks for U.S. Geographic Combatant Commands   AFRICOM U.S. Africa Command, covering all of Africa except Egypt Under a near-term, 1°C to 2°C (1.8°F to 3.6°F) warming scenario, this region will likely see rapid loss of rural livelihoods, disease, resource stress, and migration. In this scenario, violent extremist groups bolster their numbers, and security threats spiral into nearby fragile areas.   Under a medium-to-long term, 2°C to 4+°C (3.6°F to 7.2+°F) warming scenario, this region would experience new and renewed interstate conflict over water resources, and severe humanitarian crises resulting from migrating populations, weather disasters, and economic shocks. Security institutions may not be able to preserve stability in the region.   CENTCOM U.S. Central Command, covering the Middle East, including Egypt in Africa, and Central Asia, notably Afghanistan and Iraq Under a near-term, 1°C to 2°C (1.8°F to 3.6°F) warming scenario, this region will likely experience dangerous levels of temperature rise, drought, and dwindling water supplies that intensify already tense resource, political, and territorial competition.   Under a medium-to-long term, 2°C to 4+°C (3.6°F to 7.2+°F) warming scenario, this region would experience temperatures levels that render many areas of the region uninhabitable, competition over water resources, large-scale populations displacement, and social unrest leading to enduring conflicts and state failure.   EUCOM U.S. European Command, covering Europe, Russia, Greenland, and Israel Under a near-term, 1°C to 2°C (1.8°F to 3.6°F) warming scenario, this region will likely experience severe weather that threatens destabilization of its key economic sectors, rising regional inequality, migration and ethno-nationalist responses, and negative impacts on civil and military infrastructure.   Under a medium-to-long term, 2°C to 4+°C (3.6°F to 7.2+°F) warming scenario, this region would experience prolonged drought and rising seas, significant internal displacement, and an influx of migrants from neighboring areas. A breakdown in regional political, institutional, and security cohesion becomes more likely.   INDOPACOM U.S. Indo-Pacific Command Under a near-term, 1°C to 2°C (1.8°F to 3.6°F) warming scenario, this region will experience water scarcity in some areas and precipitation inundation in others, posing risks to security infrastructure, social stability, and tensions between regional powers.   Under a medium-to-long term, 2°C to 4+°C (3.6°F to 7.2+°F) warming scenario, this region would experience devastating sea level rise threatening its megacities, infrastructure, and populations, and the resulting displacement and securitization of state borders.   NORTHCOM U.S. Northern Command, covering the continental United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, Mexico, and the Bahamas Under a near-term, 1°C to 2°C (1.8°F to 3.6°F) warming scenario, this region will experience more intense, extreme events like storms and wildfires, with significant impacts on life, property, security infrastructure, and democratic institutions.   Under a medium-to-long term, 2°C to 4+°C (3.6°F to 7.2+°F) warming scenario, this region would experience extreme heat, sea level rise, and disaster events, with severe impact on critical and security infrastructure. The region would become increasingly divided, and potentially entangled in resource competitions.   SOUTHCOM U.S. Southern Command, covering Central and South America, and the Caribbean Under a near-term, 1°C to 2°C (1.8°F to 3.6°F) warming scenario, this region will likely experience extreme heat and drought, forcing communities to migrate in search of new opportunities, with transnational criminal groups, and narcotics and human traffickers taking advantage of growing destabilization.   Under a medium-to-long term, 2°C to 4+°C (3.6°F to 7.2+°F) warming scenario, this region would experience even more acute weather instability, crop collapse, and spreading disease. These issues, along with failing agriculture, will increase the likelihood of violent conflict, drive significant internal and cross-border migration, and increase political instability.

 

BRIEFING HIGHLIGHTS

 

Hon. John Conger, Director, Center for Climate and Security; Former Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Comptroller)

• This briefing launches the report, A Security Threat Assessment of Global Climate Change: How Likely Warming Scenarios Indicate a Catastrophic Security Future, produced by the Center for Climate and Security’s National Security, Military, and Intelligence Panel on Climate Change.
• The Department of Defense has long recognized climate change as a security issue and has included climate risks in threat assessments since the George W. Bush administration.
• Climate change is a threat multiplier that exacerbates other security threats.
• Catastrophic climate impacts cause catastrophic security implications. Policymakers need to develop ways to avoid the worst climate impacts and the resulting security implications.

 

Craig Gannett, President of the Board, Henry M. Jackson Foundation

• There is still time to limit the impacts of climate change, but the margin for error is shrinking.

 

Kate Guy, Principal Investigator, Center for Climate and Security

• Climate change is a unique issue because it is a threat multiplier and because we know more about it than any other security threat we have faced before.
• Even 2°C (3.6°F) of warming above pre-industrial levels would create severe threats, and all regions would be impacted. At 4°C of warming, climate impacts will increase to levels that institutions are currently unable to handle.
• The report does not state what will happen, but what is likely to happen if the security community does not take action.

 

Dr. Rod Schoonover, CEO, Ecological Futures Group; Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; Former Director of Environment and Natural Resources, National Intelligence Council

• Natural systems were influenced by anthropogenic actions even before climate change (e.g. deforestation, overfishing, overfarming), and these influences are also important in security considerations.
• Climate change will increase political instability and social decohesion, which will create conditions favorable for crime, terrorism, and disease to develop.

 

Hon. Sherri Goodman, Chair of the Board, Council on Strategic Risks; Former Deputy Undersecretary of Defense (Environmental Security)

• After climate change was first included in a national security report in 2007, Congress directed the Department of Defense and the intelligence community to address climate change in all future reports. This shows that Congress has the power to direct the security community to consider climate change, but agencies need resources to implement recommendations and strategies.
• The Arctic is an example of a potential emerging geopolitical conflict driven by climate change. As shipping routes open due to sea ice melting, China and Russia are moving to expand their presence in the Arctic. Russia is bolstering its military resources in the region, and increased resource extraction by Arctic nations is likely.
  • There is growing potential for a Russian nuclear-powered icebreaker to collide with a Chinese vessel, and the outcome of such a collision would have widespread negative consequences.
• The Department of Defense has an opportunity to lead by example on climate. It operates at the front line of climate threats, and is a large energy user.

 

Ambassador Richard Kauzlarich (ret), Co-Director, Center for Energy Science and Policy, George Mason University; Former National Intelligence Officer for Europe; Former U.S. Ambassador to Azerbaijan, and Bosnia & Herzegovina

• It is difficult to predict what the Trump administration’s response to climate-related security threats will be. To date, the administration has not deployed resources to respond to such threats.
• Diplomacy and international partnerships, not just the military, are also needed to respond to security threats.
• There are already opportunities for the United States to address climate-related security issues. For example, the Trump administration is currently engaged in discussions regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.

 

Abridged Q&A

Give an example of something from the report that you are most concerned about:

• Kauzlarich: The intersection of climate change with an unpredictable global issue (e.g., a pandemic).
• Goodman: An Arctic nuclear conflict scenario. Also, climate tipping points such as ice sheets collapsing, which would cause rapid sea level rise and make certain coastal areas uninhabitable in a matter of of decades.
• Schoonover: Political instability resulting from climate change’s effects on labor, agriculture, fisheries, public health, etc. This could both add to the numbers of fragile or failed states and prevent states that are already struggling from recovering.
• Guy: More frequent political instability, and the ability of international institutions to manage that instability. Climate-induced migration has the potential to undermine international cooperation and democracy, since governments often respond to shocks with authoritarianism.
• Conger: New unlivable spaces forming where people currently live as a result of water and food insecurity and rising temperatures (for example, parts of the Middle East could become too hot for human habitation).

 

Concluding Remarks

General Gordon Sullivan, United States Army (Retired)

• Climate migration poses a major security threat. Mass migration and the German government’s welcoming attitude led to backlash from the extreme right.
• Climate change should be fully integrated into national security strategies, and the United States should commit to stronger national and international climate goals. Someone needs to act, and the question is whether the United States will step up.

 

In September 2019, the Center on Climate and Security’s Climate and Security Advisory Group released a report, A Climate Security Plan for America, which provides policy suggestions for decision makers interested in addressing the national security implications of climate change. See last year’s Climate and National Security Forum for more information.