We Need Climate Action Bigger, Faster, and Sooner to Avoid the Worst Outcomes Outlined in the Latest IPCC Report | Article

The first major section of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) released August 9th starkly describes a rapidly warming planet and the widespread impacts that could go from bad to much, much worse in the coming decades. Since the Fifth Assessment Report was released in 2014, the understanding of the relevant climate science and how the range of impacts affect our communities, especially those that have endured environmental injustices, has improved. And during these intervening years, climate change has become more severe.

“The scale of recent changes across the climate system as a whole and the present state of many aspects of the climate system are unprecedented over many centuries to many thousands of years.” IPCC Summary for Policymakers

The report can be read as an indictment of our lack of progress so far in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. But it does not attempt to predict the future. Instead, it presents a range of scenarios based on the latest analysis of available evidence. And while the nature and severity of the risk varies based on a number of factors, even conservative predictions suggest a real and present danger to our way of life.

“Many changes in the climate system become larger in direct relation to increasing global warming. They include increases in the frequency and intensity of hot extremes, marine heatwaves, and heavy precipitation, agricultural and ecological droughts in some regions, and proportion of intense tropical cyclones, as well as reductions in Arctic sea ice, snow cover and permafrost.” IPCC Summary for Policymakers

Of the five scenarios it outlines, only one would put us on track to keep warming below 1.5°C--just barely--by 2100. One would probably limit warming to about 2°C, but there is a decent-enough chance it would not. The other three would range from extremely bad to catastrophic.

“Global surface temperature will continue to increase until at least the mid-century under all emissions scenarios considered. Global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C will be exceeded during the 21st century unless deep reductions in CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions occur in the coming decades.” IPCC Summary for Policymakers

So, while the greenhouse gases we have already emitted will keep temperatures on the rise for the next 30 years, there is still a pathway to better conditions: deep cuts in carbon dioxide, methane, and other emissions as soon as possible. And in the meantime, we must pursue strategies to adapt to ongoing environmental harms with an emphasis on environmental justice communities. Better yet, we should maximize investments in solutions that deliver simultaneous mitigation and adaptation benefits like shoreline conservation and building energy codes. As it turns out, we already have many of the climate solutions we need at our disposal. What remains is the hard part: actually making the necessary investments at the scale required to reduce emissions and eventually halt global warming. The IPCC report does not leave much room for further procrastination.

“Scenarios with very low or low GHG emissions...lead within years to discernible effects on greenhouse gas and aerosol concentrations, and air quality, relative to high and very high GHG emissions scenarios…. Under these contrasting scenarios, discernible differences in trends of global surface temperature would begin to emerge from natural variability within around 20 years, and over longer time periods for many other climatic impact-drivers….” IPCC Summary for Policymakers

The IPCC report release coincided with the final procedural steps necessary to secure passage of the bipartisan Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act in the Senate and the announcement by Senate Democrats of a $3.5 trillion budget resolution that would deliver a wide range of investments across U.S. society, including sweeping climate action. (Both have since passed the Senate and await the House of Representatives.) Together, and combined with regular appropriations for the new fiscal year starting on October 1, 2021, these policies and programs would deliver energy system infrastructure upgrades necessary for a transition to a decarbonized clean energy economy; new resources to mobilize capital for affordable and equitable upgrades to homes, commercial buildings, and across the transportation sector; and stimulate economic development and create new job opportunities for U.S. workers who will make it all happen. If this legislation is enacted, it would collectively constitute a critical step forward on the narrow pathway described in the IPCC report to limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100.

Author: Daniel Bresette

The IPCC produced a number of materials designed for policymakers to review the information in the report. To learn more about the report’s findings, check out The Physical Science Basis: Summary for Policymakers (42 pages), the Headline Statements from the Summary for Policymakers (2 pages), and the Regional Fact Sheet - North and Central America (2 pages). The report is also accompanied by an Interactive Atlas--a new tool to visualize climate projections at a global and regional scale.