Setting the Stage for the COP26 Climate Talks in Glasgow | Article

To learn more about Article 6, check out Derik Broekhoff explanation of the negotiations in EESI's briefing, The Negotiations: What’s on the Table. Derik is a Senior Scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute.

As the start of the 26th Conference of the Parties (COP26) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) approaches, anticipation is growing for what countries will be able to achieve during these critical two weeks. There will be significant global attention on whether and how countries update their greenhouse gas mitigation commitments through the nationally determined contributions process, as well as how outstanding elements of the Paris rulebook will be resolved, in particular the infamous “Article 6,” which will determine the effectiveness of international carbon markets.

COP26 will also bring a flurry of report, coalition, and initiative launches to mark increased ambition to address the climate crisis. There will be high-level UNFCCC and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) events to elevate the latest IPCC publication, Climate Change 2021: The Physical Basis, which underscores the enormous amount of work needed to avoid catastrophic climate impacts.

As atmospheric scientist Sir Robert Watson explained in a recent EESI briefing, “Carbon dioxide emissions need to be reduced by 45 percent by 2030 and brought to net zero by 2050 to limit global warming to 1.5° Celsius. Emissions need to be reduced by 25 percent by 2030 and brought to net zero by 2070 to limit warming to 2° Celsius. With current efforts, we are on the pathway to a 3-4° Celsius warmer world.” These stark realities are illustrated in the graphics below, which show—from Washington D.C. to Glasgow, Scotland-—the long-term sea level rise implications of the policies and decisions made this year and this decade.

Christiana Figueres, former executive secretary of the UNFCCC, emphasized the impact of current climate decisions on the future in the aforementioned EESI briefing, saying: “This decade, the decade of the 2020s, is the most important decade in the history of humanity without any exaggeration because, by the end of this decade, we will substantially have decided whether we are going towards a better future or whether we are condemning future generations to constant and exponentially increasing destruction and human misery. We know from history that it is precisely at these moments of deepest doubt and deepest darkness that most of our transformation occurs.”

It is under this dichotomy that COP26 will unfold—the enormous challenge of climate change and the unprecedented opportunities of climate action. Coalitions around the world are already coordinating to advance the opportunities. Researchers are coordinating to increase support for action-oriented adaptation research. And during EESI’s briefing, Momentum on Adaptation, experts shared initiatives intended to identify, implement, and invest in opportunities to advance global adaptation to climate change.

Finance, to scale up adaptation and mitigation, is expected to be one of the central conversations at COP26. Experts during EESI’s briefing on international climate finance highlighted the importance of increasing public finance flows, while emphasizing that all finance should have climate considerations embedded into it. As Kate Hughes, director for international climate change for the United Kingdom’s Department for Business, Energy, and Industrial Strategy, explained, “Our Prime Minister talks about coal, cars, cash, and trees. You see that finance is right in the middle of what brings this all together and what is going to make it work. We know we need finance for the huge transition that every country and every institution needs to go through in order to deliver on the commitments made in Paris. We know that every dollar spent, every financial decision needs to take climate into account.”

At COP26, national government leaders will be sitting at the decision-making tables. But, Figureres emphasized that while country leaders set the direction and can set the pace for climate action, all levels of government, organizations, and the private sector must be engaged:

“It is proven that in those countries that are being most effective at reducing their emissions, there is a very clear alignment of policies, incentives, and regulations, that go across the governance vertical from national to state to cities and towns ... If you are able to align policy, incentives, and regulations along that whole governance vertical, you do get the most effective action and especially if those policies, incentives, and regulations actually reach out to business and to individuals.”

COP26 presents yet another movement to galvanize collaborations and kick into high gear the ambition needed to address the climate crisis. As Watson and Figueres explained, not too many more of these opportunities will exist to hold global warming below 1.5° Celsius. This conference is a critical moment for global climate action.

Author: Anna McGinn