Advanced Search
December 7, 2023
The U.S. Global Change Research Program’s Fifth National Climate Assessment reports that climate change is altering the ocean and its ecosystems in unprecedented ways. Increasing greenhouse gas emissions are warming the ocean and leading to significant consequences such as rising sea levels, more extreme weather events, ocean acidification, and the loss of marine biodiversity. All these changes will have lasting impacts across the globe. Over three billion people depend on the ocean and its biodiversity for their livelihoods, and all living things depend on it to regulate the climate. Temperatures on Earth would be significantly hotter without the ocean, as it absorbs a quarter of all carbon dioxide emissions and captures 90 percent of excess heat from rising emissions.
This year’s Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) provides important opportunities to identify solutions and pathways to reach the 2015 Paris Agreement's goal of keeping global temperature rise significantly below two degrees Celsius (3.6°F) from pre-industrial levels. As the planet’s largest active carbon reservoir, the ocean plays a critical role in combating climate change. Due to its importance in meeting goals set by the Paris Agreement, the ocean is a key topic of conversation at COP28. Recent national and international plans for ocean resilience such as the Ocean Breakthroughs, the Alliance of Small Island States’ chair statement on COP28, and the Ocean Pavilion’s COP28 Dubai Declaration showcase how oceans can take center stage in Dubai this year.
At the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Leaders Forum in October 2023, IUCN President Razan Al Mubarak announced the launch of Ocean Breakthroughs, a UNFCCC initiative to build healthy oceans. The program outlines targets in five key ocean sectors, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 35 percent and reach a net-zero future by 2050. The five key sectors identified are:
The newly-formed UNFCCC initiative aims to highlight ocean-based climate solutions that can be included in discussions of the global stocktake—an inventory of countries’ climate actions to date—at COP28.
Resilient, healthy marine ecosystems are not only important for human activities such as fishing and tourism but also for climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts. The marine conservation section of the Ocean Breakthroughs initiative focuses on achieving the goal of restoring and conserving at least 30 percent of ocean waters by 2030 through at least $72 billion in funding. The Ocean Breakthroughs initiative also highlights the importance of resilient aquatic food systems and calls for at least $4 billion in funding each year by 2030 to support resilience efforts. Although coastal tourism depends on healthy marine ecosystems, it can also contribute to their degradation. The “Breakthrough” for coastal tourism is still being discussed, but will likely focus on ways to encourage sustainable development in the industry.
Ocean-based renewable energy, such as offshore wind, provides a promising pathway for reaching energy-efficiency objectives and achieving emission-reduction goals. This section of the Ocean Breakthroughs initiative aims for the installation of at least 380 gigawatts of offshore capacity by 2030, along with targets and measures for net-positive biodiversity outcomes. These goals are shared by the Global Offshore Wind Alliance (GOWA), which was launched at COP27 and aims to accelerate offshore wind power deployment. GOWA has made some significant advances in 2023. However, the United States recently faced some setbacks in its domestic goals with the cancellation of two offshore projects that would have contributed to over five gigawatts of renewable energy.
Shipping accounts for nearly 3 percent of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide, with 99 percent of the industry using fossil fuels. Under a “business-as-usual” scenario, the shipping sector’s share of greenhouse gas emissions could reach 17 percent or more by 2050. The Ocean Breakthroughs initiative aims to make zero-emission fuels cover 5 percent of the shipping industry’s energy demands by 2030. The program also aims to retrain and upskill 450,000 seafarers as well as move at least 30 percent of global trade through ports that are adapting to climate change by reducing their emissions and increasing their resilience.
While these ocean-related topics will be relevant at numerous COP28 events, Ocean Breakthroughs will be front and center at the COP28 event, “Powering Ocean Breakthroughs with 100% Sustainable Ocean Management,” on December 9.
Resilient oceans are particularly important for Small Island Developing States (SIDS). These countries are among the most vulnerable to the effects of climate change, despite contributing to less than one percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The ocean serves as an integral part of life on small islands, serving as an important source of culture, food, and jobs. However, sea-level rise poses a large threat to some islands’ very existence, especially low-lying atoll islands like the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Kiribati, and Tuvalu. All of these island countries face population displacement if sea levels rise above one meter.
SIDS have been leading advocates for ambitious climate change measures in previous international summits. At COP21, they successfully called for the inclusion of a below 1.5-degree Celsius goal in the Paris Agreement. With COP28 underway, SIDS are preparing to lead more conversations and take more steps to keep the 1.5-degree goal within reach. In August 2023, leaders from 15 Pacific Small Island Developing States (PSIDS) convened in Fiji to discuss regionally-driven solutions to limit the average global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The PSIDS, along with other invited stakeholders, identified the ocean as an integral part of achieving this 1.5-degree goal. The PSIDS called for increased climate finance to fund ocean monitoring and support, as well as increased collaboration on ocean health issues.
On November 26 and 27, the lead coordinators of the Alliance of Small Island States, the negotiating bloc for SIDS, convened to discuss their priorities for COP28. They discussed the need for a strong outcome on the global stocktake. Ideally, that outcome would include improved steering toward the 1.5-degree Celsius goal; more robust funding for the Loss and Damage Fund for the most climate-vulnerable countries; and concrete action and credible commitments, especially from developed countries that have contributed 80 percent of the world’s carbon emissions.
The Ocean Pavilion is a dedicated space at COP28 to showcase ocean-based solutions to climate change. Partners of the Ocean Pavilion and associated stakeholders released their COP28 Dubai Ocean Declaration ahead of this year’s conference. The declaration draws special attention to the need for international investment to expand and improve ocean observations, which will help researchers understand changes in the ocean ecosystems and better inform mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Currently, ocean-observing systems are not funded at the scale needed to provide critical information to guide climate change policies. The Second Global Ocean Science Report released by UNESCO’s Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission (IOC) found that only 1.7 percent of nations’ research budgets are dedicated to ocean sciences, which is significantly less investment compared to other major scientific fields. In the United States, a 2021 report by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine emphasized the need for a new research program to better understand ocean-based interventions for carbon dioxide removal and sequestration. The report states that less is known about the risks, benefits, and tradeoffs associated with ocean-based strategies than those of land-based strategies, despite oceans holding much of the global capacity for natural carbon sequestration.
The Ocean Pavilion will hold over 80 events during COP28, on topics ranging from the blue economy to climate justice. These events will help policymakers better understand the trajectory of oceans and climate change. Attendees will be able to speak with Ocean Pavilion partners, which include high-profile research institutions and nonprofits from around the world, and learn about their current work on ocean-based solutions to address the climate crisis.
EESI is tracking key announcements and outcomes at COP28 with our and other resources. Sign up here. Author: Laura Gries
We'll deliver a dose of the latest in environmental policy and climate change solutions straight to your inbox every 2 weeks!
Sign up for our newsletter, Climate Change Solutions, here.
Advancing science-based climate solutions
Top-Rated Climate Nonprofit – 4-Star Charity