Agricultural Productivity: Big Challenges Ahead

The Food and Agriculture Organization estimates the world will have to produce 70 percent more food by 2050 to feed an additional 2.3 billion people. That would be no easy thing to do by itself.

However, the challenge is compounded by the fact that we need to end our dependence on fossil fuels, reduce energy poverty in much of the developing world, and transition together to a sustainable, renewable energy economy. We need to achieve the next agricultural revolution without the fossil energy that fueled and fertilized the last revolution. Instead, we will likely rely increasingly on biofuels, bioheat and power, and bio-based products – also produced from the land – for this transition.

But that is not all. We need to intensify and expand our agricultural and forestry production while at the same time protecting and restoring biological diversity, wildlife habitats, and healthy, functioning terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.

Finally, we must also consider and prepare for the harmful and disruptive effects of a changing climate on agriculture and forestry. We will need to produce much more from the land in a much less hospitable climate.

Can it be done? Theoretically and technically? It seems quite achievable. Socially, economically and politically? It will be a huge challenge.

In May, three agricultural science societies, the American Society of Agronomy, the Crop Science Society of America, and the Soil Science Society of America, released a joint Position Statement on Climate Change reflecting on this challenge. “A comprehensive body of scientific evidence indicates beyond reasonable doubt that global climate change is now occurring and that its manifestations threaten the stability of societies as well as natural and managed ecosystems,” the paper states. “Agricultural practices must be developed and applied to mitigate climate change and adapt cropping systems to the portending changes, so as to ensure adequate production of food, feed, fiber, and bioenergy, as well as protection of natural resources.”

Agricultural research, development, education, and extension will need to be dramatically expanded at home and abroad.