What’s on the Table for the Negotiations?

The Environmental and Energy Study Institute (EESI) invites you to view a briefing on what to expect during the upcoming international climate negotiations in Egypt (COP27).

Last year, the global community agreed on the final set of guidelines to implement the Paris Agreement, so this year marks the start of a new era of international cooperation on climate change, focused on implementation. As such, COP27 is set to cover a wide range of topics, including loss and damage, climate finance, and planning for the first global stocktake of each country’s progress towards its Paris Agreement goals.

Panelists unpacked the overall process of international climate negotiations, explained the key areas of negotiation expected to be at play at COP27, reviewed possible outcomes, discussed how new U.S. laws impact the path forward, and explored what it all means for Congress.

Highlights

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Key issues at play at COP27 are mitigation, adaptation, international climate finance, loss and damage, and the global stocktake during which countries collectively assess progress towards the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming well below 2°C (3.6°F).
The first global stocktake’s technical assessment, happening in 2022 and 2023, includes three technical dialogues on mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation. The United States can be active in these roundtables and take leadership in looking at the kinds of data and assessments that are needed to collectively make sure that countries are staying on track to meet Paris Agreement goals.
Loss and damage, or the impacts of climate change that cannot be adapted to, will also be a focus at COP27. There may be a push for a fund for loss and damage at COP27.
Adaptation will be another key issue area where focus will be on doubling adaptation finance, increasing transparency, and establishing a global goal on adaptation.
The Inflation Reduction Act closes about two-thirds of the gap between current policy and the United States' 2030 goal of reducing emissions 50-52 percent below 2005 levels.
Ultimately, delivering on the U.S. commitments under the Paris Agreement is a shared responsibility that cannot rely only on the federal government but must be a whole-of-society approach.

Tracy Bach, Co-Focal Point, UNFCCC Research and Independent Nongovernmental Organizations (RINGO)

The first week of the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is considered the technical week because the subsidiary bodies of the UNFCCC do the majority of the work during this time.
Day one of COP includes the opening plenaries of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC, the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol (CMP), and the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA). It also opens the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) and the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA). The agenda is also agreed upon at this time.
Week one also includes mandated events and workshops, like the first global stocktake’s technical dialogues; COP Presidency events, like the Sharm El-Sheikh Climate Implementation Summit; and other high-level events, like presentations of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) findings such as the Sixth Assessment Report.
The second week of COP is dominated by political work led by country ministers [Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry and his foreign counterparts] to try to come to a consensus on issues that could not be agreed on at the technical level. By Wednesday of week two, bilateral meetings and closed sessions occur where countries look to find convergence on decision texts.
There are also resumed high-level segments and mandated events like high-level ministerial roundtables during the second week.
Egypt is the host and holds the presidency of COP27. The Egyptians are highlighting climate action and the need for more support for climate work in Africa.
Key issues at play at COP27 are mitigation, adaptation, climate finance, loss and damage, and the global stocktake.
The Paris Agreement requires that countries file nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every five years to commit to greenhouse gas emission reductions. Countries also agreed to conduct a global stocktake every five years to collectively, rather than individually, assess progress towards keeping global average temperature rise well below 2°C (3.6°F).
The first global stocktake’s technical assessment, happening in 2022 and 2023, includes three technical dialogues on mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation. The United States can be active in these roundtables and take leadership in looking at the kinds of data and assessments that are needed to collectively make sure that countries are staying on track to meet Paris Agreement goals.

Nisha Krishnan, Lead, Climate Resilience, World Resources Institute (WRI) Africa

Discussions that happen at COP generally affect discussions that take place at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Bank, G7 meetings, and G20 meetings.
The world is facing economic headwinds such as raising inflation, tightening credit markets, and debt pressures on countries globally. These headwinds will drive countries at COP27 to discuss what can be done financially.
Food and energy insecurity will also likely be brought up at COP27, especially because of the war in Ukraine. Many other countries are experiencing flooding and drought that is also leading to insecurities.
Loss and damage, or the impacts of climate change that cannot be adapted to, will also be a focus at COP27. Political attention driving the conversation on loss and damage is undoubtedly influenced by flooding in Pakistan and the hurricane in the Philippines. There may be a push for a fund for loss and damage at COP27.
Adaptation will be another key issue area where focus will be on doubling adaptation finance, increasing transparency, and establishing a global goal on adaptation.
On international climate finance, countries will be discussing a new collective quantitative goal that needs to be agreed on before 2025.
The Prime Minister of Barbados, Mia Mottley, is leading efforts to question whether the international public financial architecture is fit for purpose.
Going into COP27, there is a sense of frustration—particularly from developing countries, but also from COP participants in general—that there needs to be accountability and implementation of the commitments already made.

Ryan Finnegan, Deputy Manager, U.S. Climate Policy and America Is All In, World Wildlife Fund

Since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015, there has been an increase in national and non-federal participation and interest in tracking events that are happening at international climate negotiations.
The UNFCCC has been increasingly working to center the climate actions of countries and other stakeholders. Roundtable discussions and side events that happen alongside the climate negotiations bring increased ambition from various stakeholders.
U.S. stakeholders at COP27 will influence negotiations, strengthen relationships through softer methods of diplomacy, and share announcements, expertise, and progress. This will happen through events, bilateral and multilateral meetings, and protests.
Ultimately, delivering on the U.S. commitments under the Paris Agreement is a shared responsibility that cannot rely only on the federal government but must be a whole-of-society approach.
America Is All In works to bring a robust non-federal presence to COP, so that institutions and local governments in the United States can share their commitment to the Paris Agreement.
Non-federal U.S. stakeholders at COP will include 3 governors, more than 12 additional elected state officials, dozens of state employees, more than 12 mayors and city leaders, and representatives from the National Congress of American Indians and tribal nation leaders. Hundreds of representatives from U.S. colleges and universities, large and small businesses, investors, faith groups, health care organizations, cultural institutions, nongovernmental organizations, community organizations, and youth groups will be at COP27.

Erin Mayfield, Hodgson Family Assistant Professor of Engineering, Dartmouth College; Co-Principal Investigator, Rapid Energy Policy Evaluation and Analysis Toolkit (REPEAT)

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) (P.L. 117-169) has the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent. Recent data suggests a 40 percent reduction could be achieved in less than a decade, which would be around 2030.
There is uncertainty around how much emission reduction we can realistically achieve. Looking at emissions reductions by policies in the IRA is informative:
- About 19 percent of the modeled emission reductions will come from the transportation sector as a result of incentives for electric vehicles.
- About 24 percent of the modeled emission reductions will come from the power sector as a result of incentives for solar and wind energy and carbon capture.
- About nine percent of the modeled emission reductions will come from industrial emission reductions.
The IRA closes about two-thirds of the gap between current policy and the United States’ 2030 goal of reducing emissions 50-52 percent below 2005 levels.
The IRA could drive over $4.1 trillion in cumulative capital investment in new energy supply infrastructure in the next decade while simultaneously lowering annual energy expenditures by four percent in 2030.
The IRA will have positive effects on health and labor. Through reductions in air pollution, the IRA could help avoid 35,000 premature deaths. Investment in clean energy will create new jobs in the energy sector.
The IRA will likely serve as a big boost to energy infrastructure, but other policies and factors will likely influence how effectively the IRA can achieve this.

Q&A

Q: How does enactment of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (P.L. 117-58), the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and ratification of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol impact or change how the United States participates in COP27? How do these actions feed into U.S. international commitments?

Bach

The United States will come into the negotiations on stronger footing now that it has concrete national policies that will back up at least part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
The United States has been a somewhat unreliable partner in UNFCCC negotiations, including withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under the Trump Administration and not joining the Kyoto Protocol.
The United States still has a long way to go in building trust in these negotiations. The IRA alone does not change that.

Krishnan

The IRA gives the United States more credibility, but the IRA is a domestic effort and it has no bearing on U.S. international climate finance policy, which is an area where the United States is not making adequate contributions.
The United States can show credibility on international climate finance by fulfilling President Biden's commitment of providing $11.4 billion in climate finance per year by 2024.

Finnegan

International audiences pay attention to the mechanisms of Congress. At COP26 in 2021, they knew there was a disconnect between U.S. climate targets in the NDC and the level of ambition and policy that backed them up.
Coming into COP27 with legislation passed and with some analysis that points to how the United States can now be within reach of its ambitious targets will make a difference. This is a first step in building credibility that needs to go further and extend to different issue areas, both within the domestic U.S. context and in supporting partners internationally.

Mayfield

Benefits of the IRA will show up now and also for years down the line as the United States reduces emissions.
IRA policies should drive down the price of clean technologies that will have spillover effects internationally.

Q: How do current global energy and food security challenges impact possible outcomes of COP27 or what countries are willing to negotiate on at COP27?

Krishnan

Energy and food security are not directly discussed at the negotiating table, but such political and financial signals impact the context in which the negotiations take place.
Countries outside Africa are interested in developing natural gas extraction across the continent. Many African countries are interested in developing their natural gas resources because it is a mechanism to get financing. They are not necessarily interested in gas itself as an energy source, but rather are focused on all possible ways to bring in financing. This ties in closely to the international climate finance conversations at the COPs.
On food insecurity, climate and conflict impact food production and supply chains. The COP27 Presidency is raising the profile of the intersection of agriculture, climate, and water issues.
The interconnectedness of the issues requires a holistic view that connects COP with multilateral development bank work, the G7, and the G20.

Q: What outcomes would constitute significant progress at COP27?

Finnegan

The outcomes on loss and damage and climate finance will be critical.
Leaders need to focus on climate in addition to the near-term crises that are happening.
It will also be helpful to leave COP27 with momentum for next year’s COP.

Krishnan

There are many multiyear processes underway during this year’s COP, and decisions made this year will lead to bigger impact outcomes at future COPs.
Progress on the global goal on adaptation will be important. Making sure loss and damage finance is on the agenda this year and in future years will also be an important step.
Setting up a useful mitigation work programme that ensures progress on ambition is necessary to have productive future COPs.

Bach

The mitigation work programme, in particular, is set up to have an outcome this year focused on setting up a process for how the programme will function going forwards.
The global stocktake technical dialogues will also facilitate more convergence of ideas during COP27.
The U.S. midterm elections will take place during COP27, and the world will be watching for signals on how the United States will behave on climate over the next two years.

Q: How can countries build trust at COP27, especially since many countries have failed to meet commitments made at previous COPs?

Finnegan

Countries need to offer something in order to push the ball forward. Substantive policies from developed countries specifically in the loss and damage and climate finance areas will help build trust.
Trust happens at so many different levels within these negotiations. Building relationships and trust points at a level that goes beyond negotiator to negotiator is important. Progress can be made that incorporates some national diplomacy as well as implementation that involves public and private sectors, communities, and institutions working together.

Krishnan

COP negotiation outcomes are a package, and issues at COP must be addressed with that in mind. It is not loss and damage versus mitigation. The success of a COP depends on how much countries are willing to show up and show solidarity for each other.
Countries have the opportunity to enter into discussions and negotiations throughout the year. COP can set the groundwork for these other discussions, but is not the start or the end of these discussions.

Mayfield

Ensuring domestic policy is stable and durable even through different Congresses is one way the United States can signal to other countries it is serious about its commitments.

Bach

There is a lot of focus on COPs, but they are just one point throughout the year even within the UNFCCC. People interested in certain topics can track their progress throughout the year. For example, someone wanting to know more about finance could track the work of the Standing Committee on Finance.
Relationships also happen with non-state actors. The United States gets a lot of credit for its relationships with civil society, businesses, and universities.

Q: What are some of the other policies on the table to help meet the U.S. Paris Agreement goal to reduce emissions 50 to 52 percent of 2005 levels by 2030?

Mayfield

U.S. state and industry sector goals that spur investment can complement the IRA and help contribute to a reduction in emissions.

Finnegan

A lot of state and local action is already going further than policies in the IRA, and, in many cases, state and local governments will be able to take advantage of programs that the IRA establishes to further accelerate action.
The University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability published a report, An All-In Pathway to 2030: The Beyond 50 Scenario, which provides an economy-wide analysis of how the United States can reach its emission reduction goals.

Q: What are some essential resources that Congressional staff should be aware of if they are trying to keep up with COP27?

Bach

Carbon Brief and the Earth Negotiations Bulletin are great resources.
The UNFCCC COP27 website is also user friendly.

Krishnan

WRI has several resources that touch on policy issues that will be discussed at COP27. WRI also hosts a daily press briefing during COP about the negotiations.

See also EESI's resources at www.eesi.org/cop27.

Compiled by Shreya Agrawal and Nick Solis and edited for clarity and length. This is not a transcript.